As of: March 25, 2024, 3:25 p.m
By: Florian Naumann
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Two prominent experts offer sobering assessments of the war in Ukraine: Carlo Masala even considers war to be a fact that should be accepted.
Leipzig - More than two years of war in Ukraine: That's more than enough time to process the conflict into a book.
Two of the most prominent experts did that - and presented their findings at the Leipzig Book Fair at the weekend.
Carlo Masala and Gerhard Mangott gave the listeners little cause for optimism.
Two of their main theses: Negotiations are unthinkable in the Ukraine war for the time being, despite all calls for more diplomatic efforts.
And if Masala is to be believed, then the world will have to get used to a “transition phase” – a “very dangerous” transition phase.
Mangott identified in detail very different attitudes in the West in support of Ukraine.
And also attested to dangers, including a “horizontal” or “vertical” expansion of the conflict.
“Putin says what he plans to do”: Masala explains “historical revisionism” – and diagnoses “chaos” in the world
“We shouldn’t always be so frightened when war breaks out,” said Masala on Sunday (March 24) on the book fair stage of the broadcasters
ARD
,
ZDF
and
3Sat
.
“You should just get used to the fact that there are sometimes situations in which actors want to wage war and you cannot stop them from waging war.” Vladimir Putin's Russia, for example, only wants to come to the negotiating table when it gets something it demands.
Political scientist Carlo Masala on Sunday at the Leipzig Book Fair.
© IMAGO/dts news agency
The attack from Putin's Russia did not come as a surprise, explained the scientist at the Bundeswehr University in Munich.
“With Putin we are dealing with someone who tells us what he is up to.
He doesn’t do it right after, but he tells us what he’s planning to do,” Masala said.
And Putin repeatedly displays “historical revisionism”: “'Russia's borders end nowhere',” it says: “It's about expanding Russia's sphere of influence and power.”
Playing with fire is also conceivable in Transnistria, and alarming signals have already been heard in the Baltics.
Ukraine is an 'illegal state', the sovereignty of the Baltic states is questioned and wherever Russians live, Russia has a protective function.
We see this in Transnistria.
Putin is playing with fire to protect these Russian citizens abroad if necessary.
Carlo Masala expressed Vladimir Putin's “historical revisionist” attitudes at the Leipzig Book Fair.
At the same time, there is a certain chaos on the world stage: in the 1970s, for example, it was rather unthinkable that a conflict in the Near and Middle East could have escalated in the way that is now conceivable.
Masala speculated that the USA and the Soviet Union “whistled back” their regional representatives.
Now a new - albeit looser - bloc is emerging that challenges the world order: an “axis” made up of Russia, China, North Korea, Iran;
supported at the political level by Brazil and South Africa.
“As long as this new order is not yet fully developed, we will have to get used to this chaos and we will live in this transition period, which is of course extremely dangerous,” said the expert.
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Escalation in the Ukraine war?
Expert Mangott warns – and points to the special case of Crimea
The day before, Mangott also saw no prospect of negotiations on the Austrian book fair stage.
“Both sides say they are ready to negotiate,” said the political scientist – but added: on terms that are “unacceptable” for the other side.
He at least qualified: “But a situation could arise where both warring parties are militarily closer to the point where they prefer such a ceasefire to a continuation of the fight, with all the disadvantages that it has.”
However, the Innsbruck Russia expert seemed to assess the risks of the current situation as more important.
Formally it is true that Ukraine sets its own goals in the defensive war.
But it is also clear that the supporting states have a very direct influence on Kiev's situation through the extent of arms deliveries.
It also depends on nuances.
Some states called for a victory for Ukraine - other heads of government, such as Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), emphasized that Russia should not win the war and that Ukraine should not lose.
The books for the lectures:
Carlo Masala: “Why the world cannot find peace” – Brandstätter, 20.00 euros
Gerhard Mangott: “Russia, Ukraine and the Future” – Brandstätter, 20.00 euros
Alexei Bobrownikov: “Bloody Alliances” – Dietz, 26.00 euros
There are regions in the West that “say that a maximalist war goal carries the risk of escalation, namely a horizontal escalation, that additional countries are drawn into the war - or worse, a vertical escalation.”
The latter could mean, for example, the use of nuclear weapons.
Some time ago, Mangott did not rule out a step from the Russian side in an interview with
IPPEN.MEDIA
.
He already attributed a special role to Crimea as a “red line” for the Kremlin.
On Saturday, too, Mangott attested that Crimea was particularly explosive.
If the peninsula falls to Ukraine - which is currently a distant scenario - a referendum carried out by international institutions would be appropriate, the political scientist warned.
“Of course” the Crimean Tatars or refugees with voting rights should also be taken into account.
However, that doesn't seem realistic, he admitted: Neither Russia nor Ukraine would likely jeopardize their upper hand over the region with a vote.
Ukraine is facing problems in the war against Russia – journalist appeals to the West
Ukraine is now facing a problem that is not related to weapons: the country needs many more soldiers who can operate the weapon systems at the front.
“This has been discussed very emotionally in parliament for many weeks, months and years,” explained Mangott.
“I don’t have the answer to the impact of sending so many young men and women to war,” the expert admitted.
Also at the book fair, Ukrainian investigative journalist Alexei Bobrovnikov appealed to the West.
Adding costs in emergency situations is cynical, he said.
Nevertheless, he advised the West to do exactly that: If Putin wins, “tens of millions” of people would leave Ukraine, he warned.
In view of this, every delivery of military equipment is money well spent.
Ukraine, he assured, would remain “steadfast.”
Bobrovnikov himself had fought in the Ukrainian army in Irpin.
Bobronikov writes in his book “Bloody Alliances” about smuggling and bloody machinations in the “grey zones”, such as the occupied territories - Russia is also causing the West massive economic losses there, he explained.
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