As of: March 25, 2024, 3:17 p.m
By: Momir Takac
Comments
Press
Split
Transnistria's request for help could escalate the conflict between Russia and the Republic of Moldova.
Residents are prepared for the worst.
Odessa – It is just 50 kilometers from the center of Odessa to the border with Moldova.
The city in southern Ukraine is currently under massive shelling from Russia, despite being far from the current front lines in the Ukraine war.
Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin is repeatedly accused of planning an attack on the Republic of Moldova.
People in the country are worried – and prepared for the worst.
Is Putin planning to invade Moldova?
Escalation in Transnistria feared
This also has to do with Transnistria's request for help from Russia.
The area stretches 200 kilometers along the border with Ukraine and is an internationally unrecognized regime backed by Russia.
According to Moldovan media, the separatists of the breakaway region officially asked Russia for “protection”.
The reason is “increasing pressure from Moldova”.
Russian news agencies then quoted a statement from the Foreign Ministry: “Protecting the interests of the residents of Transnistria, our compatriots, is one of the priorities.”
A sign with a hammer and sickle stands in Tiraspol in the separatist region of Transnistria.
© picture alliance/dpa |
Hannah Wagner
How Moscow will react is unclear.
“It is entirely possible that Russia is now seeking further escalation,” said Wolfgang Müller, professor at the Institute for Eastern European History at the University of Vienna,
IPPEN.MEDIA
.
It is possible that Putin wants to create another front.
“Since the Russian aggression against Ukraine, Transnistria has taken on a new strategic importance, as an invasion from the southwest would be very dangerous for Ukraine,” Müller continued.
Developments in Transnistria have parallels with the annexation of Crimea and Donbass regions
Putin may be planning to take Ukraine's important access to the Black Sea by taking Odessa and create a land corridor towards Moldova.
This is necessary for troop or material transport because Russia has blocked the sea route and does not control any areas in Ukraine bordering Transnistria.
It cannot be ruled out “that the conventional war will cross Ukraine’s borders,” said Müller.
The Republic of Moldova, a candidate for EU membership since June 2022, is concerned about the developments.
After Russia opened polling stations for the Russian presidential election in Transnistria, where 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed and almost a third of the population is of Russian origin, the Moldovan Foreign Ministry expelled a Russian embassy employee.
The parallels are unmistakable.
Such steps had already been taken before the annexation of Crimea and Russian-occupied areas in eastern Ukraine.
“Everything is at stake for Moldova now,” Alexei Tulbure, director of the Moldovan Institute of Oral History, told
Foreign Policy
.
Journalist from Moldova warns: “Will cease to exist”
Moldovans are prepared for all scenarios.
The possibility of the country losing its territory or autonomy to Russia “is in the back of our minds,” Alina Radu, founder of the independent weekly
Ziarul de Garda
, told
Foreign Policy
.
“If Ukraine is defeated and Russia carves out a land corridor to Transnistria, Moldova will cease to exist as an independent state,” the journalist said.
Vladimir Putin could further fuel the conflict between Russia and Moldova.
© IMAGO/Grigory Sysoev
If the Russians cross the Dniester River and occupy Moldova, “the majority of the population could flee to Romania and other European countries,” Radu explained.
There are also plans for their entire editorial team to move to offices in the Romanian cities of Iasi and Bucharest.
If Ukraine manages to push the Russians back, the Russian troops would have to leave Transnistria, “and it will disintegrate.”
(mt)