As of: March 25, 2024, 11:39 a.m
By: Paula Völkner
Comments
Press
Split
Millions of Ukrainians are seeking protection from war.
Many of them in Germany.
Experts warn of “mass exodus” if Russia wins the war.
Kiev – Since Russia invaded Ukraine a little over two years ago, around 6.5 million Ukrainians have had to leave the country, according to UN refugee aid figures.
According to Eurostat,
4.3 million war refugees have received protection
in the EU .
Over 40 million people still live in Ukraine.
A Russian victory would have fatal consequences for the people in the country.
Migration researcher Gerald Knaus from the European Stability Initiative now also warned of the consequences for Europe.
Ukraine war could trigger “largest refugee movement since the 1940s”.
Knaus told the
Germany editorial network
that a Russian victory in the Ukraine war would result in “the world’s largest refugee movement since the 1940s.”
The migration expert explained that it is the belief in success that keeps people in Ukraine in their homeland.
“If this belief wanes, the number could grow very quickly – as it did in the weeks after the start of the war on February 24, 2022,” he said.
Three million people fled within three weeks of the start of the war.
Poland, Medyka 2022: Ukrainians waited behind a gate at the border crossing to enter Poland.
(Archive image) © Alejandro Martínez Vélez/EUROPA PRESS/dpa
This scenario should be taken into account when European states negotiate support for Ukraine.
“Those in Europe who are hesitant to support Ukraine more still haven’t fully grasped what’s at stake,” Knaus said.
The Ukrainian investigative journalist Aleksei Bobrovnikov made similar comments at the Leipzig Book Fair at the weekend.
Adding costs in emergency situations is cynical, he said.
Nevertheless, he advised the West to do exactly that: If Putin wins, “tens of millions” of people would leave Ukraine, he warned.
In view of this, every delivery of military equipment is money well spent.
“Extreme scenario of mass exodus”: Experts expect 10 to 20 million Ukrainians to flee
Migration researcher Franck Düvell from the University of Osnabrück also warned
MDR
of a mass exodus .
If Ukraine comes under Russian occupation, Düvell expects that between 1.5 and 3 million Ukrainians could come to Germany, he said.
If Russia wins the war, the migration researcher spoke of an “extreme scenario”.
In this case, 10 to 20 million refugees can be expected.
However, the number of people who would have to flee Ukraine depends on which areas would fall under Russian occupation, he explained.
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Düvell also criticized the lack of foresight of German politicians in this regard.
One is not prepared for such a scenario, he told
MDR
.
According to a report
by Spiegel,
migration authorities in Germany are already concerned about the increasing number of Ukrainian war refugees coming to Germany.
CDU interior expert Alexander Throm confirmed that around 1.65 million Ukrainians were registered with the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees as of March 12, 2024.
Around 250,000 more people than last year.
According to figures from the UN refugee agency, Germany reports the most refugees from Ukraine.
The CDU interior expert Throm criticized this distribution in the EU to
Spiegel
: “The federal government must urgently work for a more even distribution of the newly arriving Ukrainian war refugees in Europe, Germany is reaching its limits.”
(pav)