As of: March 25, 2024, 7:21 p.m
By: Karsten Hinzmann
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Massive: A Russian Iskander-M missile system and associated rocket.
According to Germany's top soldier, Germany has little time to develop defense measures.
© IMAGO / ITAR-TASS
Headache in NATO over Putin's missile arsenal: military officials urge haste.
A German scientist is even calling for nuclear armament.
Berlin – “We have five to eight years.
During this period we must build missile defense.
There is no alternative,” says Carsten Breuer.
The Inspector General of the Bundeswehr is currently warning people
to hurry in the newspapers of the
Funke media group .
Thomas Stölzel urged calm and composure - two years ago.
The Ukraine war was four weeks old and the Bundeswehr suddenly realized that Vladimir Putin was not to be trifled with on the European stage and that Germany would look pretty poor if he got serious.
The sky over the entire NATO was suddenly open, and the editor of
Wirtschaftswoche
did not comment on a quick solution, but rather a sensible one: “Before billions of euros from the special fund are invested in more modern air defense, it must be clear that it is really suitable against those Russian weapons that could destroy German weapons depots and military airports, but also civilian targets in the event of war.” Since then, Germany and NATO are still waiting for a solution.
The demand from the highest-ranking German soldier brings new excitement to an open-ended discussion.
As the Ukraine war progresses, there is heated debate about the power of Russia's rocket artillery and what measures the Bundeswehr must take.
Europe's “Sky Shield Initiative”: The purchasing cooperative for missile defense
So far, Russia has apparently been unable to destroy or significantly weaken Ukraine's air defenses and is therefore using its air forces in a low-risk manner - and especially against civilian targets.
Nevertheless, missiles are the weapon of choice for Vladimir Putin, which is why it is all the more important for NATO partners to join forces.
The second step of the “Sky Shield Initiative” has been achieved since the middle of last year.
To strengthen common air defense, 21 European countries are currently joining together to procure appropriate weapon systems and ensure operations, said Federal Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius (SPD) in February this year.
The framework conditions for cooperative purchasing are thus becoming more concrete in order to save costs for Europe and keep operating costs low.
Interception areas and interception layers
The Bundeswehr's ground-based air defense is spread out into
close and immediate areas
within a radius of six kilometers and a height of 15 kilometers.
The stationary Mantis system is used to protect objects and a light air defense system on the small Ocelot tracked vehicle is used to protect mobile land forces.
The lower interception layer
lies within a radius of up to 100 kilometers and a height
.
There, the Patriot and Iris-T SLM systems work against aircraft, tactical ballistic missiles and cruise missiles to protect critical infrastructure and larger troop formations.
The
upper interception layer
extends on the ground over a distance of more than 100 kilometers and heights of more than 35 kilometers - this will be the terrain of Arrow-3 and will basically have the effectiveness of protecting the entire German territory from missiles.
Source: Bundeswehr
Due to their low altitude and therefore very late detection, defense against cruise missiles, including hypersonic missiles, is only possible in the sense of protecting individual objects, for example with the Patriot system (Phased Array Tracking Radar to Intercept on Target) or IRIS-T SLM (Infra Red Imaging System Tail Surface Launched Medium Range).
According to the Ministry of Defense, comprehensive protection over an area is enormously expensive and only possible with a large number of systems - which in turn illustrates the need for a multinational approach.
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Last year, Germany, Estonia, Latvia and Slovenia decided to purchase the Iris-T SLM air defense system manufactured by Diehl Defense.
According to Pistorius, the first one will be delivered next year and Slovenia's procurement is already underway under ESSI.
The minister announced that the participating states also want to work together on operations and training of staff.
However, there is still a gap in the defense against long-range ballistic missiles, writes the Federal Ministry of Defense.
Germany must be able to protect itself more quickly than previously planned against the threat of missiles with ranges of more than 1,000 kilometers.
For this purpose, the Israeli Arrow 3 air defense system is being procured.
Delivery of the Israeli Arrow missile defense system is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Putin's Iskander missiles: The war in Ukraine is undoubtedly depleting Russia's arsenals.
In the short term, the risk of an attack on the alliance should be low, argues Lydia Wachs
from the
Think tank
Foundation for Science and Politics:
Russia's military capabilities, including its missiles, are sufficient to continue the war in Ukraine - in any case, there are no immediate bottlenecks visible - the average number of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles deployed alone supports this thesis.
At the same time, the country probably needs the remaining capacities for its political and military goals in Ukraine.
In the medium to long term, however, it is expected that Russia will be able to fully restore its capabilities.
Wachs calculates that even then, Russia would probably have too few cruise missiles and rockets to wage a lengthy conventional war with NATO.
The war in Ukraine is undoubtedly depleting Russian arsenals.
The purchase of Arrow-3 met with broad approval in political Berlin, but internationally it raised eyebrows.
France, for example, sees itself being left out of the arms procurement for a European “purchasing cooperative” and is left out, as are Poland and Italy.
Unlike the Bundeswehr's existing Patriot and recently ordered Iris-T air defense systems, Arrow-3 appears completely unsuitable for intercepting Russian missiles or cruise missiles.
Arrow defends high up in Earth's atmosphere - the Russian missiles dive underneath.
Simon Højbjerg Petersen, a ballistic missile defense expert, called the purchase of Arrow-3 “the strangest procurement decision I have seen in a long time,” writes Frank Kuhn on his blog.
The new hype: “Arrow-3 cannot intercept Russian short-range missiles or cruise missiles”
Kuhn is project coordinator of the
Natural and Technological Arms Control Research Cluster (CNTR)
at the
Leibniz Institute for Peace and Conflict Research
and argues critically against Arrow-3: The greatest threat to Germany and Europe currently comes primarily from Russian short-range missiles of the type 9K720 Iskander and the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic weapon and Russian cruise missiles.
What all of these weapon systems have in common, however, is that they do not leave the Earth's atmosphere during their flight.
“In other words, Arrow-3 cannot intercept Russian short-range missiles or cruise missiles at all,” Kuhn claims.
The European atomic bomb would be a decisive step towards strategic autonomy and its own deterrent force.”
Political scientist Herfried Münkler in the world
The use of the Iskander system in Ukraine actually represents more or less a secondary theater of war for Russia.
The majority of this system is directed against NATO partners.
As early as 2013, former German NATO general Egon Ramms warned in
Bild
that Putin's missile strategy meant a return to Cold War thinking and viewed it as a clear declaration of war on NATO in terms of power politics.
The background to this statement was the stationing of the first 48 Iskander missiles in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad along the border with the Baltics, i.e. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
More rockets followed five years later.
Warsaw, Berlin, Copenhagen and southern Sweden were suddenly within range of Russian firepower.
Ramms: “NATO must recognize that Russia is pursuing intensive power politics and is by no means an ally.
Russia is making no progress towards democracy.
The missile strategy follows the old Soviet threat pattern.” Given this unchanged doctrine, Russia's top soldier, Carsten Breuer, is still moderate in his demand for effective air defense.
The most renowned German political scientist, Herwig Münkler, recently used a heavier rhetorical caliber when he explained to Die Welt why he considers the longing of many Europeans for a world free of nuclear weapons to be illusory: “The European atomic bomb would be a decisive step towards strategic autonomy and... its own deterrent force.”