As of: March 25, 2024, 10:57 a.m
By: Nadja Zinsmeister
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This summer could end up in the top 10 warmest summers since 1881.
A researcher warns of a new permanent situation in Germany.
Kassel – Summer is still a few months away, but experts are already warning of particularly high temperatures this year.
Germany and Europe could be hit by extreme heat waves, as current forecasts show.
A researcher has also discovered a pattern according to which the jet stream in the North Atlantic further increases the warm effect.
Accordingly, Germany must also prepare for hot months in future years.
Meanwhile, Brazil is groaning
currently experiencing a severe heat wave that feels like temperatures are over 62 degrees.
Germany and Europe must prepare for severe heat waves in summer
“Summer 2024 could be quite warm,” predicted meteorologist Dominik Jung from
wetter.net
on Thursday (March 21).
In Germany, “some strong heat waves” can be expected, especially in the summer months of June to August.
According to the weather expert, one to two degrees higher values are expected during this period compared to the average from 1991 to 2020.
Jung describes the expected values as a “normal deviation” upwards.
They could therefore be enough “for a summer in the top 10 warmest summers since 1881”.
However, a record summer cannot yet be derived from the current data.
Will our summers soon no longer just be nice and warm, but rather uncomfortably hot?
(Symbolic photo) © Oliver Berg/dpa/Symbolbild
It's not just Germany that is facing some extreme temperatures.
As Jung explains, citing current weather graphics, the temperature deviation is to be expected throughout Europe, including in popular holiday countries such as Italy, France and Spain.
“The last graphic shows that there could be a summer that is noticeably too warm not only in Germany, but in almost all of Europe,” the weather expert explained.
Germany is probably facing an extreme summer – researcher discovers new weather pattern
So are we in for an extreme summer like 2018 or 2022?
Only two years ago there was already extreme heat in Europe, with parts of Great Britain reaching 40 degrees Celsius in summer for the first time.
Due to the drought, forest fires also raged in some countries.
According to researcher Marilena Oltmanns from the Oceanographic Institute in Southampton, the past two summers are two examples of a weather phenomenon that could continue to affect us in the next few years.
She found that the ten hottest and driest summers in Europe over the past 40 years are specifically linked to the melting of the ice sheet in Greenland and the jet stream in the North Atlantic.
According to Oltmanns, the thinning ice is continually releasing large amounts of fresh water into the North Atlantic.
As a result, the sea surface becomes colder and the temperature difference to warmer waters further south increases.
The strong temperature contrast in the water ultimately strengthens the weather front above it.
This effect in turn influences the strength and position of the atmospheric jet stream over Europe, which is partly responsible for the climate.
Stronger winds are blowing, “which push the warm water flowing north – the North Atlantic Current – even further north than usual,” explains Oltsmann in her research results, which were
published in the science magazine
New Scientist at the end of February.
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Does Germany have to prepare for warmer summers in the long term?
In view of developments in recent years and advancing climate change, the researcher assumes that “a particularly hot summer is imminent in southern Europe this year”.
The phenomenon could also worsen in the next few years, as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet is currently accelerating.
In addition, there is a fundamental warming trend that can be attributed to fossil fuel emissions.
The climate in Europe could therefore become increasingly hotter and drier.
More and more researchers are warning about extreme weather conditions in Europe.
Just in March, biologist Mark Benecke predicted unprecedented heat for Germany.
“I can tell you with almost complete certainty from the experiences of the last few years [...] that we will have the hellish summer of the century and millennium,” he said in a lecture at a university.
He also justifies the exceptional temperatures with climate change.
(nz)