One month before the regional elections in Euskadi, the dispute for first place is closer than ever between PNV and EH Bildu.
The two nationalist formations are practically tied in voting intention and in seat projections before the elections on April 21, according to a 40dB survey.
for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER.
The overwhelming hegemony of the
Abertzalismo
as a whole - between both forces they can add up to almost 70% of the votes - does not translate into a rebound in independence sentiment, to which only 13% of those surveyed adhere.
More information
Consult all the internal data of the EL PAÍS survey: questionnaires, cross-examinations and individual responses
The demographic forecast suggests that it is most likely that after 21-A the current coalition government of the PNV and the PSE-PSOE will be repeated in Vitoria, which would once again gather the absolute majority of the autonomous Parliament between them.
But the great unknown to be resolved is whether, for the first time in almost half a century of autonomy and almost 13 years after the end of ETA's terrorism, the Abertzale left
manages
to become the leading force in the community.
The survey reflects a tie of 28 seats between the two nationalist formations, with a slim half-point advantage for the PNV in voting intention: 34.2% compared to 33.7% for EH Bildu.
The socialists, with practically the same results as four years ago, would gain one deputy compared to the 10 they have, which would allow the current government coalition to add 39 of the 75 seats in Parliament, one more than the absolute majority.
The demoscopic work reflects a deterioration of the PNV, which has governed for the entire autonomous period except three years, between 2009 and 2012. The party could fall 4.5 points and lose three parliamentarians compared to 2020. On the other hand, for Bildu there are big openings expectations: it seems in a position to advance up to six points, which would bring it seven more seats.
Those of Arnaldo Otegi would take a good bite of the old votes of Unidas Podemos - 15% - and they also attract abstentionists and even around 5% of those who gave their support the last time to the PNV and the PSE.
In the state-level forces, almost nothing moves, beyond the fracture of the space to the left of the PSOE.
The demoscopic work indicates a certain advance of almost a point and a half for the PP, which, in any case, would not serve to improve its current six seats in Parliament and would keep it in a marginal position in the community, with 8%, almost six points less than the PSE, despite the fact that it is also very far from the two nationalisms.
The Popular Party would even give the PNV 15% of their support from four years ago.
Data sheet:
Scope: Basque Country.
Universe: general population residing in the Basque Country, over 18 years of age and with the right to vote.
Sample size: 1,200 interviews.
Procedure: online interview (CAWI).
Sampling error: +-2.8% (for 95% confidence).
Completion date: March 15 to 19, 2023
Vox would maintain its only seat in the Vitoria Chamber, while the dispute between Sumar and Podemos places both on the edge of extra-parliamentarism.
Compared to the 8% that the Elkarrekin Podemos coalition obtained in 2020, those of Yolanda Díaz would now stand at 3% that would give them a seat and those of Ione Belarra at 2.8%, fighting not to be left without representation.
The major political forces have renewed their candidates and this translates into a low degree of knowledge among citizens.
Imanol Pradales, from the PNV, is barely known by 55%, practically the same as the socialist Eneko Andueza, while Pello Otxandiano, from Bildu, does not reach half, even somewhat below the more veteran Javier de Andrés, from the PP, and at the same time as Miren Gorrotxategi, from Podemos.
Not even one in four respondents know the headliner of Sumar, Alba García Martín.
Otxandiano is the one with the best grade, although Pradales surpasses him in the preferences for who would be the best lehendakari: 24.8% compared to 21.5%.
Regarding the hypothetical Government formula, 28.4% are inclined to maintain the coalition between Peneuvistas and Socialists, 23.4% would like an alliance of all nationalism and 15.6% declare themselves in favor of a pact between the
nationalist
left and the PSE.
The Basques in general show a very pronounced inclination to the left.
On the classic scale from 0 (far left) to 10 (far right), the average where respondents place themselves is 3.9, when the latest national barometer is 40 dB.
placed the average of the Spanish at 4.8.
Even PNV voters consider themselves leaning towards the center-left, at 4.5.
Unlike Catalonia, Basque nationalism has left the independence demand in the background, which fully coincides with the citizen opinion expressed in the survey.
Not even among the electorates of the PNV and EH Bildu is the option for independence in first place.
In the population as a whole, the majority is in favor of achieving more autonomy (37.5%), one in three is satisfied with maintaining the current one and 13% would like their own State.
This trend is also reflected when interviewees are asked about their main concerns.
The 40dB pollsters.
They offer a menu of nine possible answers and the “territorial question” is, by far, the least mentioned.
For some time now, the strong concern among Basques about the deterioration of their health system has been underlined, also corroborated by demographic research.
“Health and quality of other public services” ranks first in the ranking of concerns, ahead of economic and housing issues.
Despite everything, the responses reveal a significant degree of general satisfaction among Basques.
More than half declare themselves this way, while those who have a negative impression about the state of their community do not number even one in 10. Of course, 43.5% believe that it has worsened in the last four years.
There is also no negative assessment of the autonomous government, whose management barely 18% fail.
As usual, all the internal data of the survey can be consulted on the EL PAÍS and SER websites.