As of: March 26, 2024, 12:17 p.m
By: Karsten Hinzmann
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To cease fire?
The defenders in the Ukraine war are running out of ammunition, just like Vladimir Putin's invading army.
Analysts hope that Russia will have exhausted its resources in two years.
© IMAGO/Stanislav Krasilnikov
The war ends in two years;
possibly.
Analysts hope that Russia's resources will soon be exhausted - in terms of shells and trucks.
Moscow – The truck became the engine of modern war.
Without him, the materiel battles of the First World War would never have taken place - British soldiers alone fired 224,221 grenades within an hour at the start of the Somme Offensive on July 1, 1916.
And for the capture of the Sevastopol Fortress in World War II, for example, more than a ton of artillery ammunition is said to have been fired every day between the beginning of June and the beginning of July 1942;
Almost four tons on the first day of the operation alone, writes former German military technician Michael Hiske.
The war in Ukraine is also likely to be decided in logistics - according to
Newsweek
, not only Ukraine, but also Vladimir Putin's invading army could soon run out of grenades;
and the means to move them to the front.
However, the world has been waiting for this for a long time - a year ago, the Estonian Ministry of Defense published a paper from which ZDF
reported
: Russia fires between 20,000 and 60,000 artillery shells per day - with each grenade weighing around 50 kilos 155mm howitzer this would result in a consumption of up to 3,000 tons per day;
Missiles not included.
The modern war in Ukraine is obviously in no way inferior to the devastation of the previous century.
The Neue Zürcher Zeitung
regrets
: “Artillery is also the preferred weapon of the Russians for their campaign of annihilation against densely populated areas, which is particularly evident in all its horror in Mariupol.
This appears to be aimed at wiping out the infrastructure necessary for the survival of the population.”
Horrific consumption: Russia expects four million artillery shells
So there is a risk of similar results to those in the two major wars: total economic exhaustion, probably for both warring parties.
In any case, that is one possible conclusion of current figures from the British
Royal United Service Institute (RUSI)
- according to which Russia needs 5.6 million artillery shells to maintain its previous offensive momentum and force a quick end to the Ukraine war: “In order to achieve its goal “To achieve significant territorial gains in 2025, the Russian Ministry of Defense has identified an industrial need to produce or procure approximately four million 152mm and 1.6 million 122mm artillery shells in 2024,” write the
RUSI
authors Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds.
They see this as the soft flank of Russia's expansionist efforts.
Accordingly, the Russian Ministry of Defense expects to increase production from around one million 152 mm grenades from the previous year to 1.3 million grenades over the course of 2024 and to produce 800,000 grenades in 122 mm caliber in the same period.
Watling: “In addition, the Russian Ministry of Defense does not believe that it can significantly increase production in subsequent years unless new factories are built and investments are made in raw material extraction with a lead time of more than five years.”
Small chance: If Russia's barrage subsides, Ukraine will have new options
Nevertheless, this year is likely to be a difficult one for Ukraine.
Newsweek
expects Russian offensives to continue;
primarily to complete the conquest of the entire eastern Donbass region, including the Luhansk and Donetsk regions - "regardless of the high cost in lives and equipment," as
Newsweek
writes.
A declassified U.S. intelligence report cited by
Reuters
last December estimated the number of Russian soldiers killed and injured since February 2022 at 315,000, which that estimate would represent about 90 percent of pre-invasion manpower.
Kiev claims to have eliminated about 435,000 Russian soldiers.
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On the one hand, Putin and his propaganda apparatus are reporting one record number after another, but on the other hand, upon closer inspection, they clearly lose their luster.”
David Linnemann in DefenseNetwork
Artillery was the goddess of war, Josef Stalin said two years after the start of the Second World War, and Russia also acted accordingly in the Ukraine war.
British military analysts estimate that the Russian leadership still intends to fire around 16,000 shells per day, although this total does not include rocket artillery.
Despite the failed Russian counteroffensive, analysts believe that incessant Russian fire alone is holding back the defenders' efforts.
The more the barrage subsides, the greater flexibility Ukraine will have in its military operations.
False friend: Russian artillerymen complain about junk from North Korea
North Korea's ruler Kim Jong-un is now the most useful ally of dictator Vladimir Putin and his inexhaustible source of ammunition.
The
Tagesschau
is currently citing information from the South Korean secret service NIS, according to which North Korea has now handed over more than a million artillery shells to Russia and in return has received support for the development of a spy satellite.
The British research institute
RUSI
used satellite images to document the journey of 300 containers from the North Korean port of Rajin to Dunaj in Russia - and by rail to near the Ukrainian border.
However, the goods delivered from North Korea are not said to be worth the powder, as
DefenseExpress
reported, for example: Russian artillerymen, for example, complain about the “systematic spread in the range” of their grenades.
This means that the projectiles wander through the air, which means that more ammunition has to be used to complete a typical artillery task and that the firing takes so long until the position is identified and fought by the enemy.
In any case, authors Watling and Reynolds see that in order to adequately equip the armed forces, Russia will have to further reduce its stockpile of an estimated three million rounds of stored ammunition in the short term, "although much of it is in poor condition," as the scientists claim.
In order to further compensate for these bottlenecks, Russia has signed supply and production contracts with Belarus, Iran and Syria in addition to North Korea.
Although the supply of about two million 122mm rounds from North Korea will help Russia in 2024, it will not make up for a significant shortage of available 152mm ammunition in 2025.
Including the ammunition for multiple rocket launchers, it is assumed that Russia could throw a total of three million rounds of artillery ammunition to the front every year.
Patience is required: The West hopes that Putin will soon run out of steam
DefenseNetwork
takes a more critical view of the numbers: The target and the actual situation are by no means consistent: “On the one hand, Putin and his propaganda apparatus are reporting one record number after the other, but on the other hand, upon closer inspection, they clearly lose their luster,” writes David Linnemann.
Forbes
estimates the increase in Russia's military budget to now be 6.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
This means that the military budget will increase by around 70 percent this year compared to 2023 and will amount to approximately 108 billion euros.
The budgets of the NATO states total more than 1,200 billion euros;
Ukraine's budget is approximately 40 billion euros - almost half of the Ukrainian budget.
Linnemann expects all sides to play for time until Russia's arms industry runs out of steam.
Analysts assume that the country will reach its limits with ammunition production by 2026 at the latest.
Looking at the bare numbers, Ukraine's allies are far superior to Russia, especially in terms of their financial resources - only: Production in this country is starting much more slowly and - if individual positive examples such as Denmark and Germany are left out - many countries are bunkering in the current one security policy situation rather than providing Ukraine with what they have available, Linnemann complains in
DefenseNetwork
.
“What’s the point of talking about increased ammunition production in Russia if absolute figures remain under wraps and even what’s known doesn’t cover what’s needed?”
In any case, the old cannon barrel is experiencing an unexpected new lease of life in Ukraine - artillery is suddenly playing the key role again on the several hundred kilometer long front sections.
This gave the simple truck a new significance, as the
Neue Zürcher Zeitung
had already highlighted after a year of war.
“In 2019, a Swedish report found that the Russian army does not lack the firepower for a large military expedition, but it does lack transport capacity.
Shortly before the invasion, US military expert Alex Vershinin calculated that they could only travel a day's drive from their depots before supplies collapsed.
The simple reason: too few trucks.
Amateur Logistics: The invading army lacks the transport capacity for efficient supplies
According to
RUSI,
Russian logistics worked like this: civilian trucks relying on good roads brought supplies from the train stations to the rear front.
Only then did military trucks take over.
But even so, Swedish military logisticians calculated that the Russians needed half of their vehicles just to transport ammunition from the train station depots to the front.
According to the
Süddeutsche Zeitung,
the number of truck registrations in Russia increased from 6,000 to 14,000 between 2019 and the end of 2023.
China obviously meets the demand.
That's why Ukraine continues to hunt down transport vehicles.
The US General Omar Bradley is said to have said during World War II: “Amateurs talk about strategy, professionals talk about logistics.”
(kh)