Defense Minister Yoav Galant in a statement on the conscription law/Ministry of Defense Spokesperson
Photography: Elad Malka
The main points of the draft conscription law that were published and are expected to be presented today (Tuesday) at the cabinet meeting, include several controversial sections, including an exemption from conscription starting at age 35, the exclusion of goals for conscription without criminal sanctions, the establishment of a battalion and a dedicated service track, and the expansion of the number of servants in rescue organizations and government offices.
As part of the consultations on the law - the coalition tends to give up raising the exemption age from 26 to 35. The final decision is expected to be distributed to ministers only before the government meeting.
The outline provoked criticism among professionals, both in the treasury, in the army, and among the legal counsel to the government, whose members expressed reservations about the wording of the proposal, when according to the wording of the current draft, Speaker Gali Beharve-Miara will have difficulty defending it both due to a violation of the principle of equality, and due to The heavy burden is already placed on the servants following the war.
So what is Netanyahu planning, how is the army preparing for a possible change in the equality of the burden, what is the position of the ultra-Orthodox, and what are the gloomy assessments of the Treasury if the law passes according to the draft? Voila! Makes order.
Will the exemption age increase?
An ultra-Orthodox protester against conscription into the army/Israel Police spokeswoman
the political system
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu promised the ultra-Orthodox factions, back in the coalition agreements in the formation of the government, that regulating the conscription exemption would be one of the primary goals of the far-right government, but more than a year and three months later - there is no conscription law.
Netanyahu rejected and rolled over the hot potato of the recruitment for months, and the coalition focused first of all on the legal revolution of Justice Minister Yariv Levin, into October 7 and the war of iron swords, and up to now.
Netanyahu's main goal at the moment is to continue delaying and rolling the ball on the exemption from conscription - without the High Court of Justice interfering and without the ultra-Orthodox threatening to withdraw from the coalition. Therefore, the government secretariat is working even at this time on a proposal that would extend the illegal exemption from ultra-Orthodox conscription - but still set timetables and principles for advancing the legislation - which are accepted by the ultra-Orthodox. Bottom line, Netanyahu is trying to postpone the crisis by three months.
However, the condition set by Defense Minister Yoav Galant complicates matters for Netanyahu. Galant announced at the beginning of the month that he would agree to promote a conscription law only on the condition that he enjoys the consent of all parties The coalition - not only the ultra-Orthodox, but also Benny Gantz's state camp. But the talks that took place between the parties in recent weeks did not produce the necessary agreements - and Netanyahu decided to move forward without Gallant and without Gantz unilaterally. However, if and when the conscription law reaches the Knesset, the coalition may to be a problem in recruiting a majority, since in Likud there are other ministers and MKs who are expected to oppose the law that perpetuates the blanket exemption for the ultra-Orthodox.
Gantz, on the other hand, made it clear yesterday that he would not support the recruitment outline in its current form, but it was implied from his words that the passage of the outline in the government would not be a red line - but only the approval of the law in the Knesset in three months.
Gantz demands to hold talks on the outline of the Israeli service of the state camp, but he does not come close to the conditions and demands of the ultra-Orthodox leaders, and Likud believes that he has no political interest in reaching compromises on the issue due to the explosive nature of the conscription issue in his electoral base.
The fact that Gantz is not threatening to retire from the emergency government now signals that he prefers to stay in the war cabinet for a few more weeks and months, mainly due to his desire to be involved in the plans for the return of the abductees.
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He promised the ultra-Orthodox - and repeatedly rejected.
Netanyahu/Government Press Office, Ma'ayan Tuaf/L.A.M
the army
The commanders of the IDF made it clear to Defense Minister Yoav Galant in recent months that the army needs fighters to the extent of at least one more division (about twenty thousand soldiers), and this in order to be able to meet the scope of missions in routine and war in several arenas.
Also, senior army officials emphasized that there is a large degree of Urgency to recruit fighters in accordance with the growing threats in all sectors, and on the basis of the intelligence assessments for those who can develop in the northern arena.
Therefore, the policy of the IDF General Staff is to recruit everyone who is liable to be drafted in Israeli society, without going into the articles of the conscription law, which is essentially a political law.
The Security Service Law is a semi-military law because its essence is to allow the IDF to function and fulfill its various tasks. In practice, the law says how long men and women must enlist. The conscription law is essentially political, and is intended to exempt the ultra-Orthodox from enlisting and serving in the IDF.
In accordance with the IDF's policy of recruiting everyone, the IDF General Staff made it clear to the Minister of Defense that adjustments are required in the widespread recruitment of ultra-Orthodox.
For example: adapting tests for the ultra-Orthodox, establishing new training bases that will withstand the enormous load of absorption, adapting bases for ultra-Orthodox service, meeting the required kosher status, planning bases for men only to meet their standard of living, similar to the Netzah Yehuda Regiment (Nachal Ultra-Orthodox).
Complicated matters for Netanyahu.
Galant/Ministry of Defense, Elad Malka
the ultra-orthodox
The guiding principle of the ultra-Orthodox sects is that those who "learn Torah as their art", i.e. sit and study Torah in yeshiva - will continue to do so and will not have to enlist, at least until the age of 26 and maybe even later.
Shas and Torah Judaism agreed to introduce quotas and recruitment targets in the bill for the benefit of ultra-Orthodox who are not students in yeshiva and they will enlist in the IDF.
In the event that the ultra-Orthodox do not meet the targets, there will be financial sanctions on the educational institutions.
The two ultra-Orthodox factions meanwhile oppose criminal sanctions.
They demand that the yeshiva budget continue to be provided without change for anyone who studies Torah, even though he does not enlist in the IDF. This is a stipend of around 700-800 shekels for an avrach, or 400-500 shekels for a yeshiva student.
the treasure
The Treasury maintains that the continuation of the existing situation of non-enlistment, which leads to non-integration in the labor market due to the way in which the exemption is granted that requires ultra-Orthodox to remain in yeshiva until a late age, will have serious consequences: "devastating economic significance", the Budget Division's position published on the matter stated yesterday.
According to the budget department's assessment, "the economic impact of the Defense Ministry's proposals (extending the mandatory and reserve service) in the coming decade is estimated at approximately NIS 104 billion."
The budget department calls for the recruitment of the ultra-Orthodox, with the exception of a small group of learners, which includes a fenced numerical framework, and the rest will be required to be recruited based on the usual mechanisms existing in the law.
The division proposes the application of economic sanctions to those who will not enlist - and it is desirable to also consider additional complementary tools such as the implementation of economic sanctions on the individual who does not serve.
Tools of this type are expected to increase the number of recruits, without producing negative economic implications.
The application of economic sanctions for the individual is expected to be effective to an increased extent, since the rate of government transfers from the disposable income of ultra-Orthodox households is high compared to similar populations.
" and Israeli society, due to the high overlap between the population serving in the IDF and the working population. The proposed security laws are expected to significantly increase the existing economic burden on the working population and the economy as a whole."
If the situation continues as it is, in 2065 an injury to the GDP is expected to be about 13%, reflecting a corresponding decrease in the standard of living of all the citizens of the country.
In addition, it will be necessary to increase direct taxes by 16% in order to maintain the same level of services that the state provides without increasing the deficit.
More on the same topic:
The conscription law
Haredim recruitment