The number of
empty commercial premises in Buenos Aires neighborhoods
can be an indicator of the crisis.
And the fact that the amount has grown compared to recent months coincides with the view of a sector that, like others, sees an
uncertain future scenario that
is still difficult to predict amid the impact of the repeal of the Rental Law and instability. economic, which can continue to affect people's consumption capacity.
“At the moment we do not expect drastic changes, but if the drop in consumption continues,
we can expect an increase in empty premises
,” they explain from the Argentine Chamber of Commerce and Services (CAC).
The numbers for the January and February two-month period confirm a
relative increase, "although not a significant variation
. "
Specifically, according to the CAC report, during the first two months of 2024, a total of
195 premises were detected for sale, rent or closed in the surveyed areas.
On the other hand, compared to the previous measurement, corresponding to November-December 2023, there was an increase of 24.2%, since the number of empty premises had been 157. On the other hand, if it is compared with January-February 2024,
a 28% drop in vacancies
was recorded .
“The lower consumption capacity of individuals negatively impacted businesses.
The CAC Consumption Index of goods and services gave -1.7% year-on-year in January 2024. This does not mean that there has been an immediate increase in business closures, but it does mean
that the situation in some sectors has worsened
.
If the decline in real consumption in the economy continues in the future,
it should generate a greater closure of commercial premises
,” they reinforce from the CAC.
They add that although economic activity is suffering the impact of the change in relative prices, the duration of this impact is what may or may not actually show an increase or not in empty premises and business closures.
For its part, the Federation of Commerce and Industry of the City of Buenos Aires (FECOBA), which has 63,000 businesses surveyed in the City of Buenos Aires, told this newspaper that, at this time, there
is no major vacancy of premises
in rent in any of the Buenos Aires neighborhoods.
Fabián Castillo, president of this federation, expressed that there are no rental offers because the good premises are already occupied: “Today
there are only 6 empty premises
on Florida Street because there is a lot of commercial tourism movement.”
Regarding how the repeal of the Rental Law impacted the rental contracts of commercial premises, he points out that there was “
a flexibility when it came to renting
, but
prices did not drop
, and in the main arteries there are no important premises to rent.”
Commercial premises for rent increased compared to December, but decreased when compared to the first two months of 2023. Photo: Maxi Failla (File).
“There is a view of another expectation than what there was with the previous law.
Thinking that this will be activated at some point, whoever signs the contract now
has an important expectation placed on when inflation drops
, a strong expectation in the investment.
Most rental contracts are about measuring this issue: if they end it is because the item is no longer going, or the rent has increased,” he analyzes.
The head of FECOBA says that there is a key point that helps understand the reason for the low vacancy of premises:
the growth of franchises.
“These bring commercial movement.
In the rest of the City of Buenos Aires the same thing happens as in the downtown with these forms of sales that are already installed.
A premises that remains empty, a premises that is occupied by a franchise
”, he comments.
Castillo says that this trend occurs strongly in other inland cities as well, such as the pedestrian area of Rosario, where there are very few empty stores on the main arteries.
For him it is clear that the franchise is chosen because “it is
low cost
and generates a lot of recovery in billing.”
He also adds that although the main arteries have most of their stores open, attention must be paid to what happens with the shopping malls, where the vacancy effect is greater.
One of the ideas that FECOBA has is to present a bill so that measures emerge that support and benefit galleries more.
What real estate agencies say
“Here in the southern area -Barracas, San Telmo- there is very little vacancy,
the premises are rented
.
For example, a store on 600 Montes de Oca Avenue. In a 4x10 meter store, you can think about
a million pesos.
In a small one measuring 3x6 meters, you can think about 500,000 pesos,” says Mariano Manikis, a real estate broker who owns Estudio Manikis.
“In the new premises that are going to be rented, the repeal of the law may have an impact.
The premises are indexed every 3 months
, so the person who rented a premises in January for 500,000 pesos will be paying 850,000 pesos in April.
And we have to see if in April the locative value is that.
Because, on the other hand, there is a decline in demand,
people buy less because they have less money.”
He emphasizes that
the rental values are uncertain
because they depend a lot on the ups and downs of the economy and inflation: “It is very likely that people who rented in December, or in January, or in November, will have to close or have to re-agree for below the inflation index with the owner.”
And he says that two months ago they opened a bar two blocks from Montes de Oca Avenue, on Pinzón Street, which he estimates has a rental price of 200,000 pesos;
The same location in Montes de Oca, he assures, would cost 500,000 pesos.
There are very significant differences from one block to the other
.
Manikis assumes that rental values will increase because the economy will improve, although this may lead to
several difficult months.
"People are not going to have money, merchants are not going to sell, and that is when we will have to sit down with the owners and say
'this is closing or we adjust the values to this new situation
. '
This government's policy is already talking about looking towards the last quarter.
Everything influences demand,” he says.
Diego Migliorisi, real estate broker and manager of Migliorisi Propiedades, maintains that there are no closed stores on the avenues, although there are on internal streets: “But we don't see great vacancy, because generally there are brands that, even if they use half of the store,
pay for it because They need to be there for
branding
reasons
.
Because today, at a commercial level, the competition is on the Internet.”
“There are many chains that
bill more for digital outlets than for their own stores
.
Before they had a very large store with all the
stock
on an avenue, and they are reduced to a smaller store, with sales on the internet.
They even save on personnel, because a large part of the marketing of products or services is automated,” adds Migliorisi, who is also a high-tech specialist.
Regarding the management of premises rental contracts, the real estate broker specifies that for the moment
they are closing normally, without inconvenience
.
“In commercial terms , a three-year contract
is generally handled
, which is the minimum that the tenant asks of you to be able to carry out an activity.
The update is quarterly, and generally the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used.
In the gastronomic sector, perhaps a combo of products is used so that the update is specific according to the variation of what they sell there,” he details.
And he concludes that there is a great expectation regarding inflationary stabilization: “If it continues to decline, and the saving capacity recovers, consumption will increase, but it depends more on a macroeconomic issue.
We will see that in the coming months.”
S.C.