As of: March 26, 2024, 5:18 a.m
By: Simon Schröder
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The election campaign between Biden and Trump is heating up.
The primaries show a problem for the ex-president.
Can Biden decide the election in the suburbs?
Washington DC – The US election campaign for the November presidential election is now well underway.
And the main fight will be between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Only Robert Kennedy Jr. could intervene.
At times, Trump has always done well in the polls.
But: He has a big problem in one area.
Biden can particularly score points in the suburbs.
Donald Trump has "alienated large swaths of the suburbs," a political analyst
noted, according to
Newsweek .
The US primaries revealed that the ex-president had achieved poor results precisely where the Republicans are normally secure - namely in the suburbs of the big cities.
Trump loses votes to Haley in the suburbs: Can Biden win here?
For many years, many of the suburbs in Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Illinois and Kansas have been a rock in the surf for the Republican Party.
The first warning signs for Trump came when his primary opponent, Nikki Haley, won over 500,000 votes in suburban areas.
A study by the Pew Research Center confirms this movement in the American electorate.
Former President Donald Trump looks down worriedly.
Could the US suburbs become a problem for the 77-year-old?
© IMAGO/Gripas Yuri/ABACA
Since Trump's victory in the 2016 presidential election, the electorate has shifted primarily to the suburbs.
While almost 48 percent of Democratic voters came from urban areas in 2016, the proportion increased to almost 57 percent in the 2022 “midterm” elections.
This opens up an opportunity for Biden to beat Trump in the coming presidential elections, especially in the suburbs of the USA.
Analyst sees opportunity for Biden: “Trump alienates suburbanites”
ABC
News analyst Elliott Morris weighed in on the primary election results on X Wednesday (March 20) and gave his assessment of the situation.
“I'm not one to read too much into voting patterns in the Republican primaries;
Trump will win around 90-95 percent of the Republican electorate in November.
But even if 10 percent of those suburban Haley voters don’t go for him or vote for Biden in November, that could make the difference.”
Thomas Gift, a political analyst at the Center on US Politics at University College London, sees the political environment similarly.
“Trump is undoubtedly alienating large swaths of the suburbs, which tend to have higher concentrations of wealthier and more educated voters who have largely turned away from the Republican Party.”
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Trump's mobilization of the Republican base could alienate the educated electorate
The analyst further believes that "Trump's insistence on mobilizing the base limits his potential constituency and creates a cap on his approval ratings that is most pronounced among upscale and moderate suburbanites," Gift told
Newsweek
.
In other words: Trump is alienating educated and politically moderate suburbanites with his rhetoric, which primarily inflames the core Republican electorate.
According to the Pew Research Center study, the educational distribution of voters is clear.
51 percent of Democratic voters have a bachelor's or master's degree, while only 37 percent of Republican voters have a college degree.
The study therefore appears to confirm Gift's assumptions.
Trump could therefore risk losing the educated electorate in the suburbs in particular for his presidential election in November.
(SiSchr)