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Experts warn that the group believed to be responsible for the terrorist attack in Moscow could carry out further attacks.
Which goals should be considered?
DAMASCUS - A few months before he was killed in a raid by U.S. special forces, Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi released a final video message in which he symbolically passed the torch to far-flung followers in distant lands.
The caliphate he himself proclaimed has been defeated and it is now up to the terrorist group's regional branches to carry out “revenge operations” around the world.
“Our fight today is a fight of attrition and expansion of the enemy,” Baghdadi said in the April 2019 video, released shortly after the fall of the Islamic State’s last stronghold in Syria.
“They should know that the jihad will continue until the Day of Judgment.”
Branches of the Islamic State are gaining strength - worldwide
Friday's (March 22) bloodbath at a Moscow concert hall is just the latest evidence of how effectively Baghdadi's brutal vision is being implemented.
As its self-proclaimed "caliphate" lies in ruins in the Middle East, a constellation of regional branches of the Islamic State is gaining strength in many parts of the world, fueled by a mix of traditional and new grievances, including the war in Gaza, officials and experts say Counterterrorism.
On October 4, 2011, the US State Department listed al-Baghdadi as a "Specially Designated Global Terrorist" and offered a reward of up to $10 million for information leading to his capture or death.
© AGB Photo/Imago
Some sections or “provinces” of the Islamic State in Africa now have large, well-equipped armies.
Particularly in West Africa and the Sahel, they have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to capture and hold territory and push back government forces when they try to intervene, officials and counterterrorism experts say.
In contrast, the Islamic State-Khorasan - the violent group linked to the Moscow attack and commonly known as ISIS-K - appears to be increasingly specializing in outside attacks.
The group has sent terrorists to Russia, Iran and Turkey and is also planning attacks against Western countries, including the United States, according to U.S. intelligence reports.
In just two attacks this year, in Iran and Russia, ISIS-K terrorists targeted large groups of civilians and killed nearly 250 people - attacks that were hailed by the Islamic State's propaganda organs as evidence that the group is back is on the rise.
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“For ISIS, these operations are a way to show the world that it continues to pose a relevant, deadly threat,” Rita Katz, an expert on violent extremist organizations and founder of SITE Intelligence Group, said of the Islamic social media postings State monitors and analyzes.
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ISIS-K, the most operationally focused group, is rapidly evolving by setting up cells and searching for recruits across Central Asia, particularly those who speak Tajik, Uzbek, Farsi and other local languages, she said.
"Today it is a deadly and capable 'province' with tentacles reaching across Central Asia, including regions of former Soviet states," Katz said.
Experts warn that further attacks could be imminent
The Islamic State quickly claimed responsibility for Friday's shooting at the Crocus City Hall concert venue in Krasnogorsk, a few kilometers west of central Moscow.
U.S. counterterrorism officials believe ISIS-K in particular recruited the four gunmen who fired automatic weapons at concertgoers before setting fire to the building, killing at least 139 people in one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in modern history Russia killed.
Counterterrorism officials warn more attacks could be on the way.
In a development largely overshadowed by the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, ISIS-K and other regional groups have grown in size and ambition in recent years.
Over 1,100 attacks last year
In the past 12 months, the Islamic State has claimed responsibility for more than 1,100 attacks that killed or injured nearly 5,000 people worldwide.
This is according to a terrorism monitoring project launched last week by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), a think tank.
An Islamic State group in Mali, in North Africa's Sahel region, captured parts of two provinces last year, and other African affiliates took towns in Somalia and Mozambique's Cabo Delgado region, according to WINEP researcher Aaron Zelin.
Even in Syria and Iraq, where thousands of the group's fighters have scattered after a four-year campaign by a U.S.-led military coalition, the Islamic State remains a potent threat, according to Dana Stroul, the Pentagon's deputy assistant secretary for the Middle East during the first three years of the Biden administration.
“The group is still capable of planning and carrying out smaller attacks,” said Stroul.
Islamic State leaders in Syria appear particularly focused on planning breakouts in prisons and detention camps, she said, noting that such facilities in eastern Syria house a total of 9,000 seasoned veterans of the Islamic State's terror army.
A subsidiary of IS was founded in Afghanistan in 2015
However, ISIS-K has emerged as the Islamic State's main affiliate carrying out attacks from outside.
Friday's attack near Moscow came two months after two suicide bombers left 100 people dead at a memorial ceremony in southeastern Iran - an attack that has also been linked to ISIS-K.
The splinter group was founded in Afghanistan in 2015 and developed into a violent opponent of the country's Taliban leadership after the US withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021.
While the Taliban has managed to kill many of the group's leaders, ISIS-K has adapted by putting down roots in neighboring countries that were once part of the Soviet empire.
For ISIS-K and its parent organization, Russia is a deliberate target.
Islamic State propaganda has railed against Russian President Vladimir Putin since Moscow intervened in the Syrian civil war in 2015, sending bombers and helicopters to attack rebel groups opposing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
The rebels included a number of Islamist militias, including Islamic State fighters and al-Qaeda-backed groups.
Assad eventually prevailed, largely thanks to military support from Russia and Iran, Syria's closest ally.
Since then, Islamist groups have repeatedly accused Putin of having the blood of Muslims on his hands.
In the 2000s: Russia was once a victim of terrorist attacks
Many also remember Putin's crackdown on Muslim Chechen separatists in Russia in the early 2000s.
Chechen militants carried out three deadly suicide bombings on the Moscow metro in the 2000s and staged a mass hostage-taking at a Moscow theater in 2002.
The deadliest terrorist attack in Russia was carried out by Chechen militants who besieged a school in the North Caucasus city of Beslan in 2004 and took 1,100 people hostage.
The siege ended in a violent attack that killed nearly 350 people, including many children.
More recently, ISIS-K appears to have assumed the role of chief avenger.
In September 2022, ISIS-K claimed responsibility for a bombing outside the Russian embassy in Kabul that killed two employees and three other people.
Last year, ISIS-K set up a Tajik-language propaganda network and stepped up efforts to recruit members in autocratic Central Asian states that the group portrays as puppets of Moscow.
Several Telegram channels in Tajik, Uzbek and Russian spread pro-Islamic State propaganda and glorify Tajik fighters involved in attacks in Afghanistan, Iran, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
The four men accused of Friday's attack were identified in Russian media as Tajik migrant workers;
at least three of them had Russian registration documents.
The attacks made it clear that Russia remains vulnerable to attacks by Islamist militants.
Russian officials have not attributed Friday's attacks to any specific group.
In his address to the nation the day after the attacks, Putin spoke about Ukraine and Russia's fight against Nazi Germany but said nothing about Islamist extremists.
At the time of his speech, the four suspects were already in custody, and images and videos showing the perpetrators before and during the attack had been posted online by the Islamic State-affiliated media outlet Amaq News Agency, confirming their identities seemed.
Putin is on the phone with other heads of government: including Syria and Türkiye
Despite the arrests, Putin called on Saturday with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkey and Syria - all countries where the Islamic State is known to be active or recruiting members.
In recent years, Russia's Federal Security Service has also reported several operations against Islamic State militants, including this month an ISIS-K cell in Kaluga, southwest of Moscow, that was allegedly planning an attack on a Moscow synagogue.
At a meeting of security officials last October, FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov warned that the number of ISIS-K members had now risen to over 6,500 and that they could carry out attacks outside Afghanistan "in the near future."
US intelligence reports, some of which were made public last year via the Discord messaging platform and were viewed by the Washington Post, also mention attacks by ISIS-K on European and Asian countries, but also attacks against them United States, which is sought.
The leaked documents revealed specific plans to attack embassies, churches, business centers and the 2022 World Cup, which drew more than two million spectators in Qatar.
After Hamas attacks: other terrorist groups could follow suit
Neither the Islamic State nor ISIS-K have linked the Russian attacks to the ongoing fighting in Gaza.
However, the deaths of Palestinian Muslims during Israel's retaliation against Hamas were portrayed on social media platforms as inciting new terrorist attacks, including against Western countries.
While the Islamic State has historically fought Hamas over its ties to Iran, ISIS spokesmen have praised Hamas's Oct. 7 attack on Israel as a model for a low-tech terror campaign that is causing a high number of casualties and an enormous Generated media attention, according to Middle Eastern and European intelligence officials.
“Hamas has managed to maintain a presence in the media for months and this has created a situation in which other jihadist groups feel the need to prove to their followers and members that they can also attack strong countries,” said an Arab Intelligence official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.
A European intelligence official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information, said his government expects aspiring terrorists enraged by Gaza to take inspiration from the events at the Moscow concert hall.
The attack could also give new impetus to the Islamic State groups, which compete with each other for money, recruits and recognition.
“Unfortunately, we have to prepare for a scenario,” the official said, “in which there will be further attacks.”
To the authors
Joby Warrick
has worked for the national editorial team of The Washington Post since 1996.
He worked for the Post's investigative division and national security team and writes about the Middle East, terrorism and weapons proliferation.
He is the author of three books, including “Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS,” which won the 2016 Pulitzer Prize for nonfiction.
Robyn Dixon
is a foreign correspondent on her third visit to Russia after reporting there for nearly a decade since the early 1990s.
She has been the Washington Post's Moscow bureau chief since November 2019.
Souad Mekhennet
is a correspondent in the National Security Department.
She is the author of I Was Told to Come Alone: My Journey Behind the Lines of Jihad.
She has covered terrorism for the New York Times, the International Herald Tribune and NPR.
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English on March 26, 2024 at the “Washingtonpost.com” - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.