As of: March 26, 2024, 3:47 p.m
By: Philipp Bräuner
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Press
Split
After the attack near Moscow, experts in Europe are alarmed, but not really surprised.
From their point of view, what could now happen to Europe?
Moscow - While the issue of Islamist terrorism seemed to have lost some of its importance in the public eye until recently, experts have long seen it as a growing danger.
Above all, the IS offshoot “Islamic State Khorasan Province” (ISPK), which claims responsibility for the attack on a concert hall near Moscow, poses a threat - also to Western Europe.
ISPK danger even before terror near Moscow Topic among experts
In Germany, experts largely agree that there has been increased activity by this terrorist group in the early 2020s.
The Thuringian Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Stephan Kramer, speaks to
ARD
of a “high, abstract threat situation” that has developed specifically within the last two to three years.
Police officers secure Cologne Cathedral after a terror warning in December 2023. The IS offshoot ISPK is also said to be responsible for these foiled attack plans.
© IMAGO/Christoph Hardt
According to terrorism expert Michael Götschenberg, the first signs of ISPK activities in Germany appeared as early as 2019. At
tagesschau.de
he refers to a terrorist cell in North Rhine-Westphalia that had apparently planned an assassination attempt on an Islam critic in Germany.
The men who have now been convicted apparently all came from Tajikistan, just like the suspected attackers near Moscow.
They are said to have received their instructions from Afghanistan.
The group is also said to be responsible for the plan for an attack on Cologne Cathedral in December 2023.
In addition, the two suspected terrorists arrested in Gera last week are said to belong to the ISPK.
They had apparently planned an attack on the Swedish parliament.
According to experts, the danger of ISPK differs in Europe and Asia
The ISPK is firmly anchored locally in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia.
This strong local connection means that a different quality of attacks should be expected in Western Europe, said former head of the “International Terrorism” department Guido Steinberg to Stern.
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Specifically, this means: “IS has no staff of its own here.” The terrorist group primarily recruits via virtual means, for example via social media.
“This results in less strong bonds and less effective planning,” the expert continued.
That is why the danger posed by the ISPK for Germany and Western Europe is less great than in Pakistan or Russia, for example.
Moscow terror just a step on the way to Europe?
Afghanistan expert Ellinor Zeino has a less dismissive stance on the ISPK's threat to Europe.
“I think there will be more attacks again,” she told
n-tv
.
Especially due to the little information coming from the country controlled by the Taliban, it has become a kind of “blind spot” and the period of relative calm may only be a transitional phase.
Zeino therefore believes: “For the ISKP, Moscow is only an intermediate step on the way to the West.” (
pkb
)