The viticultural map of a warmer world: the wine of the future can come from Ukraine or Patagonia

“If we go to the worst scenarios of climate change, at the end of the century the geography of wine will be the least of our worries,” says Cornelis van Leeuwen, researcher at the University of Bordeaux, in France, and lead author of a large review published this week in

Nature

that draws the future wine map of a warmer world.

As he recognizes, the increase in temperatures also affects other agricultural crops that are much more important to humanity because people's nutrition depends on them.

However, this viticulture professor believes that the analysis of the climate impact on a product that generates as much interest and even passion as wine helps to understand some of the keys to what we are facing.

According to this scientific review of the numerous studies in this field published in the last 15 years, nearly 90% of the traditional wine-growing regions in low-lying and coastal areas of Spain, Italy, Greece or Southern California may no longer be suitable for producing wine. at the end of the century as a consequence of climate change.

This does not mean that it becomes impossible to grow vines there, since today it is done in much hotter places such as India, Thailand or Tahiti, but it does mean that it is difficult to obtain a quality or economically profitable product.

At the same time, a warmer climate is expected to benefit wine growing in colder areas now not as suitable as Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Northern Germany or Patagonia.

As the work published in

Nature

highlights , this represents an economic opportunity for these areas, but also a threat to natural environments that until now have remained safe from agricultural transformations.

How drastic the changes will actually be depends on how much the planet continues to warm.

According to the researchers who carried out this work, belonging to the universities of Bordeaux and Burgundy, in France, and Palermo, in Italy, some forecasts are excessively pessimistic because they do not take into account adaptation measures that can cushion the impact (such as the use of more resistant grape varieties, a lower planting density or the creation of shadows).

However, they also warn that these solutions can work up to certain levels of heating.

“In the case of Spain, 25 years ago the vineyard was cultivated without irrigation and today more than 50% is irrigated.

This is one of the possible adaptations to climate change, but this also poses a danger to available water resources,” says Van Leeuwen.

“Irrigation is a short-term adaptation, but not a sustainable adaptation, such as planting more drought-resistant strains or later strains that mature with cooler temperatures.”

For this viticulture professor, "it seems paradoxical, but in the last 20 years, the Spanish vineyard has been transformed, making it more vulnerable to climate change: less adapted vines have been planted and a lot of surface has been irrigated."

Extract from the review of the world map of wine published in 'Nature'.

One of the most important conclusions of the work that is valid for all agriculture is that the changes are much more acceptable with this type of adaptations if the average temperature of the planet does not rise more than two degrees.

But, as Van Leeuwen points out, “the greater the warming, the greater the danger.”

Regarding Europe, where the main production of quality wine in the world is concentrated today – largely south of the 50° North parallel – researchers consider that most traditional regions would still be appropriate. for cultivation if emissions are drastically reduced to contain warming.

However, the picture changes completely if, as current forecasts suggest, the average temperature of the planet increases by more than two degrees, which would affect the yield of the crops and the quality of the wine.

In these more severe scenarios, most Mediterranean regions may no longer be climatically suitable for competitive wine production.

For vineyards below 45°North, the only possible adaptation measure in mountainous areas would be to move crops to higher altitudes.

However, in these regions this would only compensate for less than 20% of the lost cropland.

The threshold of two degrees

For other Atlantic areas of the Iberian Peninsula and France the risks are lower or there may even be some benefits, but strong adaptations are required.

Globally, the work estimates that by the end of the century the traditional production regions in Europe will shrink between 20% and 70%, depending on the degree of warming.

But at the same time, new areas suitable for wine production will emerge that can globally increase the suitable surface area in Europe by 60%.

“It is true that in Europe there is a very large space that can become climatically suitable for wine production, but this is a theoretical projection based solely on climatic aptitudes, more studies should be carried out,” points out Van Leeuwen, who emphasizes that this This estimate does not take into account what those soils are like for agriculture, whether there are natural spaces that should be protected or whether those lands will be needed to grow food.

As far as North America is concerned, an increase of more than two degrees would hit the current vineyards of Southern California, an area already characterized by a hot and dry climate.

The scientific review indicates that by the end of the 21st century, the area suitable for growing wine in California as a whole may be reduced by 50%, a risk similar to that estimated for the southwest of the United States and Mexico.

In the north, warming may create advantages for wine production in places like New British Columbia, Washington state, or the Great Lakes region and New England.

However, although warming of this magnitude in these areas would improve the climatic conditions for wine, it would also generate unprecedented risks for agriculture in the form of heat waves and greater disease pressure, due to their special humid nature.

In South America, where wine production is concentrated mainly in the medium and high altitudes of Chile and Argentina, the situation is considered somewhat better from the start.

However, should warming exceed two degrees, Argentina's northern wine regions may need to move to higher lands in the Andes, while on the Atlantic side there would be few opportunities for winemaking.

Likewise, the review points out new areas suitable for vineyards, such as Argentine Patagonia or high altitudes of the Andes in Ecuador and Colombia.

“In general, climate change is expected to produce a reduction in agricultural yields,” says the researcher from the University of Bordeaux, who highlights the importance of not going beyond two degrees to limit risks and adapt the sector. agriculture with long-term sustainable measures.

“The particularity of wine is that the value of the product is not only given by the yield of the crop, but also depends greatly on the quality.

When we make a quality wine, with a certain reputation, we can sell it at a higher price,” Van Leeuwen emphasizes.

“This is interesting because there may be wine productions with very low yields that are very profitable.”

In a context in which wine consumption, especially red wine, is decreasing, this researcher considers this to be especially relevant.

“People consume less wine, but of higher quality, which is why we think that we must prioritize higher quality products to maintain traditional types of culture.

I don't think the solution is to maintain low-end crops with irrigation to sell at low prices,” he emphasizes.

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