Sergei Shoigu did not seem very tall next to the
“FAB-3000”
during his visit to an arms factory on March 21 near Nizhny Novgorod, in central Russia.
It must be said that the latest Russian bomb weighs its weight: more than 3 tonnes of metal and explosives for a load of 1.5 tonnes in TNT equivalent.
“Russia began mass production of FAB-3000 aerial bombs in February
,” the Russian Defense Minister explained on this occasion.
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These FAB-3000s continue the macabre series of the FAB-500 and FAB-1500 which, as their name suggests, weigh half a ton and one and a half tons respectively.
In Ukraine, they tear the sky and plow the battlefield.
Since February 1, 2024, Russian fighter-bombers have fired 3,500 glide bombs, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense alerted this week.
And the trend should increase further in the coming months: in addition to the possible arrival of FAB-3000,
“the production of FAB-1500 has doubled
,” warned Sergei Shoigu.
From “
dumb bombs
” to “gliding bombs”
However, their destructive power (300 kg in TNT equivalent for the FAB-500 and more than 700 for the FAB-1500) is incomparably higher than that of artillery shells.
It is close to that of cruise missiles (load of 450 kg, for example, for the British Storm Shadows used by kyiv), while costing much less to manufacture.
So why were we rarely seeing them on the front at the start of the war?
These were originally simple, unguided gravity bombs.
“Dumb bombs”, as the Anglo-Saxons call them.
They required the bomber carrying them to pass close to its target to drop them, like the massive bombings during the Second World War.
Without taking into account the approximate precision of such a device, it is especially ill-suited to an environment saturated with air defense.
From February 24, 2022, the Sukhoi fighter bombers of the VKS (the Russian air forces) were unable to cover the battlefield with bombs and even less the rear of the Ukrainian system.
The Russians were left with traditional artillery on the one hand, whose effect is massive but localized, and on the other expensive cruise or ballistic missiles, whose prohibitive price prevents any use on a very large scale.
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A first breakthrough was the introduction of drones, notably the Iranian Shahed-136 drones which allowed the Russians to
“industrialize”
their strikes in depth thanks to their extremely low cost.
But their explosive charge does not exceed 40 kg.
On the front line, the Russians have favored the use of Lancet kamikaze drones, which are particularly suited to targeting tanks, armored vehicles and howitzers.
But, again, their load does not exceed 3 kg.
A FAB-500 equipped with the “UPMK” kit.
Russian social networks
To radically increase the volume of fire on the battlefield, the real breakthrough came in the second half of 2023 with the gradual introduction of kits transforming traditional gravity bombs into
“gliding bombs”
.
The old FAB-500 or FAB-1500 are now equipped with a device called
“UPMK”
: a structure placed under the explosive device, equipped with wings and a satellite guidance system, allows the bomb to hover up 'at 70 kilometers using the speed acquired by the bomber.
In other words, the plane can now drop its bombs while remaining a good distance from its target.
“These bombs destroy any position”
With these kits which allow them to recycle their old bombs dating from the USSR and available in astronomical quantities, the Russians can thus subject the Ukrainians to devastating fire on the front.
It was in this new context, in particular, that they managed to capture the fortified town of Avdiivka in mid-February.
Hundreds of
“FABs”
were thus poured into the best defended points of the industrial city.
“Avdiivka is under the KAB [generic term in Russian for guided bombs, while the FAB corresponds to aerial bombs in general, Editor's note]
,” a Ukrainian soldier belonging to the 3rd brigade testified on assault deployed in the city.
These bombs completely destroy any position.
All buildings and structures simply turn into a pit after the arrival of a single KAB.
And they drop us 60 to 80 pieces in a day.
Imagine the conditions in which our fighters are fighting here today.”
A Russian Air Force Sukhoi Su-34 in 2009. Alex Beltyukov - RuSpotters Team
Ukrainians face an insoluble and deadly dilemma.
Their very short-range anti-aircraft systems which dot the front are not able to reach the Russian Sukhoi which drop their munitions several tens of kilometers from the front.
To reach them, they must get dangerously close to their most valuable anti-aircraft systems, particularly Western ones.
“These strategic systems are now within range of the ISTAR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition & Reconnaissance) loop of the Russians who are targeting them with their Tornado-S multiple rocket launchers.
It’s a bit like an American Himars: it ranges far and it’s precise
,” a French military source explained to us last week.
Since the capture of Avdiivka, the Ukrainians have lost two American Patriot launchers and a Norwegian NASAMS launcher, according to the open source intelligence site Oryx.
Particularly expensive air defense assets that kyiv can count on the fingers of one hand.
But if the Ukrainians leave them behind the front to preserve them, Russian bombers will be able to operate freely...
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The paradox is that the Ukrainians were the first to use guided bombs on the front, several months before the Russians!
In March 2023, the United States announced the delivery to Kiev of
“JDAM”
kits , the American equivalent of the Russian UPMK.
Here again, this system makes it possible to increase the range (up to 70 km in the JDAM-EM version delivered to the Ukrainians) and the precision (a few meters) of the
“dumb bombs”
.
The French also provide the Ukrainians with their AASM guided bombs that the Ukrainian MiG-29s, although light fighters, can deploy.
But the big difference on both sides of the front comes from the quantities deployed.
Where the Ukrainians can fire dozens of bombs every month, the Russians number in the hundreds or even thousands.
This difference in order of magnitude further aggravates the
“firing relationship”
between the two belligerents.
The profusion of FAB-500 and FAB-1500 is the main challenge for the Ukrainians, much more than the introduction on the battlefield of FAB-3000, still hypothetical.
Nothing indicates that the UPMK guidance kit can be directly adapted to these particularly bulky bombs.
“They have already adapted the UMPK under FAB-1500s, so at first glance: nothing insurmountable.
But there remains the question of the size of the FAB-3000, it seems less easy to me
,” cautiously estimates to Le
Figaro
Benjamin Gravisse, author of the reference blog on the Russian army,
Red Samovar
, and contributor to the magazine
Defense & International Security
(DSI).
“A Lada pulling a tractor trailer”
It remains to find planes capable of transporting such a three-ton bomb.
The issue is less the weight than the diameter of the bomb, explains on X Matej Rafael Risko, researcher at the Peace Research Center in Prague.
The fighter-bomber most used by the Russians, the Sukhoi Su-34, could hardly adapt to such a weapon.
The idea seems
“doubtful, even if it cannot be ruled out”
completely, according to Benjamin Gravisse, who hastens to add that
“a Su-34 carrying a FAB-3000 would fly as well as a Lada pulling a tractor trailer
.
A Russian Tu-22M3 in 2012. Russian Ministry of Defense
The Russians would therefore be forced to deploy their Tupolev Tu-22M3 bombers, a
“vulnerable and critical”
asset for the VKS, specifies Matej Rafael Risko.
Moscow reportedly has around sixty Tu-22M3s in its inventory, compared to around 150 Su-34s, but the first is no longer manufactured while the Russians can easily build 10 to 20 examples per year of the second.
“Given the strategy of the Ukrainian Air Force, having these Tupolevs in the combat zone would be a big risk.
Not to mention future deliveries of American F-16s to Kiev
,” continues the researcher.
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And to what end?
“
Even if a weapon of this class has a certain operational sense against hardened targets [particularly fortified or difficult to access, editor’s note], I find its use highly unlikely, especially on a large scale
,” analyzes Matej Rafael Risko, who recalls that “
FAB-3000s are not very effective weapons.
We know from their use in Afghanistan that they were lethal up to 39 meters and inflicted wounds (by debris, contusions, barotrauma, etc.) and temporary loss of combat capability) up to 158 m.
It's not very different from 1,000 and 1,500 kg bombs
,” he concludes, skeptically.
At this stage, the dropping of three-ton bombs in the Donbass is far from being the most disastrous possibility for the Ukrainians, who fear much more the growing profusion of FAB-500s and FAB-1500s, which hover over a field battle transformed into hell.