As of: March 27, 2024, 7:18 p.m
By: Karolin Schaefer, Martina Lippl
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The Tonga eruption is one of the most violent volcanic eruptions in recent decades.
This is expected to continue to influence the climate in 2024.
An expert classifies.
Munich – Last year was the warmest since weather records began in Germany more than 140 years ago.
It could be particularly hot this year too.
According to a study, a volcanic eruption in the South Pacific in 2022 will have an effect on the global climate.
There could be a risk of a hot summer.
But what's behind it?
Because of a volcanic eruption in the South Pacific: is there a risk of a heat record in the summer of 2024?
The underwater volcano Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai erupted off the South Sea archipelago of Tonga in January 2022.
The resulting tsunami waves were even felt in Japan, Alaska and South America.
The Tonga eruption is considered one of the best documented events in human history.
Tonga eruption in the South Seas on January 15, 2022 catapulted an explosion cloud to heights of more than 30 kilometers above sea level.
© New Zealand High Commission/imago
However, the eruption had some differences compared to other volcanic eruptions.
A record-breaking amount of water vapor was ejected over 30 kilometers into the stratosphere.
Shortly after the incident, it was claimed that this water vapor could have an impact on the weather and climate.
At first there were even persistent rumors that an unusually cold winter was imminent in the southern hemisphere.
But the increased amount of water vapor could lead to the opposite result in global warming.
This was shown by a study from the University of Oxford, which
was published in the journal
Nature Climate Change .
Accordingly, the outbreak increases the probability that the global average temperature will rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times in the coming years by seven percent.
After a massive volcanic eruption: water vapor could act as a greenhouse gas
The eruption ejected 146 megatons of water vapor and 0.42 megatons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, the research team estimates.
The water vapor in the atmosphere acts like a greenhouse gas.
This could lead to a warming effect on the earth's surface.
Water vapor blocks sunlight from leaving the Earth.
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During most volcanic eruptions, ash and especially sulfur dioxide reach the upper layers of the air.
This leads to cooling because aerosols scatter sunlight, as the researchers explained.
In 1815, sulfur dioxide emissions from Mount Tambora prevented sunlight from reaching the earth, triggering the “Year Without a Summer.”
In comparison, the sulfur dioxide emissions from the Tonga eruption were comparatively low at around 0.42 megatons.
Could the massive volcanic eruption in the South Pacific also have an impact on the climate in Germany?
“There is a likelihood that 2024 could be an extremely warm year like the last,” explained Andreas Walter, press spokesman for the German Weather Service (DWD), when asked by
IPPEN.MEDIA
.
“I doubt whether the volcanic eruption alone can be blamed for this.”
Despite a volcanic eruption in the Pacific: people remain the main drivers of climate change
The importance of human influence on the climate is considered to be much greater.
In addition, the volcanic eruption is not specifically mentioned when looking back at the record year of 2023.
Weather forecasts for summer 2024 are currently “probability statements” and therefore “should be treated with caution,” informed the DWD spokesman.
It will therefore be warmer than normal in May, April and June, and will most likely be “normal” from June and August onwards.
The researchers at the University of Oxford also admitted: Even if temperatures temporarily increase due to the outbreak towards the 1.5 degree Celsius limit, human greenhouse gas emissions will continue to be the main driver of climate change.
There have also been several volcanic eruptions in Iceland in recent months.
(ml/kas)
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