The war in Ukraine and Vladimir Putin's nuclear threat to Europe has generated a disturbing climate in the European Union. There is also awareness of a lack of preparation of its armed forces for a potential conflict due to a reduced budget.
After President Emmanuel Macron threatened Russia to “eventually” place European troops on Ukrainian territory in its so-called “hybrid strategy,” European countries are wondering
about the state of their armed forces, their level of training and their logistics.
France and Great Britain, the two European nuclear powers, have not invested enough to face a high-conflict war.
Its armed forces have been dramatically reduced
after the fall of the Berlin Wall, as has its equipment.
According to Global Firepower, France is the seventh military power in the world and the first in Europe (excluding Russia). Its army has
200,000 soldiers and 40,000 reservists.
In 2022, its defense budget was 40.9 billion dollars, or approximately 36.6 billion euros.
Britain without ammunition or airplanes
Britain is one of the closest allies of Ukraine and its president Volodymyr Zelensky. Their
Special forces are on the ground in charge of Western military aid.
British soldiers during exercises with NATO. Photo: Reuters
“The British Army
does not have enough money to buy the ammunition
it needs to deal with the threats it faces,” a senior general warned, as he revealed the MoD's shopping list to Rishi Sunak.
Lieutenant-General Sir Rob Magowan, deputy chief of the defense staff, said Grant Shapps, the defense secretary, and his military chiefs had told the prime minister they
needed “a bigger budget to better protect the UK”.
This included money for ammunition and for an integrated air and missile defense system
that would protect UK assets against attacks from the sky
, both abroad and at home.
Magowan told MPs on the defense select committee they had asked Sunak for “additional resources”.
"The amount of money we are spending on ammunition, at the moment,
does not cover, in all areas, the threats we face
," warned the deputy chief of the British defense staff.
British Defense Minister Grant Shapps, who has already said he believes the defense budget
should be raised from 2.27 percent of GDP
to 3 percent in a new parliament, he said there was a "wide range of weapons" he would like to buy.
French and Spanish forces during a NATO operation in March. Photo: Reuters
Magowan's revelation of shortcomings in Britain's military capabilities will increase pressure on Sunak to increase the defense budget.
Mark Francois, a Brexiteer and former Armed Forces minister who sits on the committee, said that if there was a missile attack on the UK,
“we would be practically blind”
because the early warning planes had been withdrawn several years ago and their Replacements
arrive years late.
Suspend arms sales to Israel
Sunak is also under pressure
to suspend arms sales to Israel
. Components made in the UK are being used in a way that breaches international humanitarian law, according to former diplomats and military chiefs.
The UK has authorized at least £489 million in military exports to Israel since 2015, including components for fighter jets, missiles, tanks, small arms and ammunition.
In an open letter to the Prime Minister, Brigadier John Deverell, former director of diplomacy at the Ministry of Defence, and more than a dozen former ambassadors
They said they were
“deeply concerned” by developments in Gaza.
They pointed to evidence indicating that weapons containing UK components had been used in operations that were causing
"avoidable" civilian casualties
and destruction of medical infrastructure. They said the F-35 stealth aircraft contained many UK-made parts and was being used
to devastate parts of Gaza, causing immense suffering.
British signatories included Sir Vincent Fean, former ambassador to Libya and consul general in Jerusalem, Frances Guy, former ambassador to Lebanon and Yemen, Lord Green of Deddington, former ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Syria, and Major General Charles Vyvyan, former defense attaché in Washington.
France with problems facing a conflict
Last February, the head of state, Emmanuel Macron, did not rule out the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine.
“Nothing should be excluded,”
he declared during the international meeting in support of Ukraine.
The president also reported a "consensus" among many European leaders and personalities that "in a few years
we would have to prepare for Russia to attack"
their countries, according to France 24.
French forces are not sufficiently armed against the threat of high-intensity conflicts. Photo: Wojtek Radwanski / AFP
The situation of the military in France
is no different from that of the British
. According to a recent parliamentary report, French forces are insufficiently armed in the face of the threat of high-intensity conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine. Without implying that the worst is yet to come, it is about preparing the army and society as a whole.
During his congratulations to the armed forces on January 20, Emmanuel Macron presented the next military programming law 2024-2030 at the Mont de Marsan military base.
With a budget of 413 billion euros, its ambition is, thanks to four pivots, to “transform” the armies. The text is put under the sign of the transformation of the armies and will be presented to Parliament.
War returns: increase the budget
During his speech to the military, the president justified his military programming law
: “The war returns, fully and cruelly, to European soil
. We clearly see that we need to reevaluate our ambition, sometimes reorient our forecasts, learn all the lessons of this new context and be able to plan for the coming years. “Our operational ambition for 2030 must be reviewed to better ensure our ability to deal with the prospect of the possible return of high-intensity confrontation,” he said.
France to "the war economy"
France
is ready to move towards “a war economy.”
France “does not rule out”
requisitions in the industry to move to a “war economy”
to accelerate the production of ammunition and weapons.
From words to actions? Emmanuel Macron repeats it periodically:
France must move to a “war economy” to support Ukraine.
Sébastien Lecornu, Minister of the Armed Forces, announced this Tuesday during a press conference that he "does not exclude" requisitioning "personnel, stocks or production tools", or even "imposing industrialists to give priority to military needs." He invokes “what the law allows the minister and the general delegate of armaments (DGA) to do.” That is, if the account were not there in terms of production pace and deadlines.”
"France has a meeting with its defense industry. An industry, in war economy mode, with a faster and stronger production capacity," he told the military in January.
The minister “will not refrain from doing so in the coming weeks.” “Russia must not win the war,” French President Macron reaffirmed in an interview with Le Parisien.
The law that authorizes requisitions
To justify these requisitions, the Minister of the Armed Forces relies on the military programming law 2024-2030, promulgated in August.
It provides that
in the event of "a threat, current or foreseeable,
that affects activities essential to the life of the Nation, the protection of the population, the integrity of the territory or the permanence of the institutions of the Republic or nature to "To justify compliance with the State's international commitments in matters of defense
, the requisition of any person, natural or legal, and of all the goods
and services necessary to fulfill them may be decided by decree in the Council of Ministers."
The French military
"France has the ability to commit a coalition division, or
some 20,000 men, in thirty days
," wrote General Pierre Schill. "It is equipped with the means to command a coalition army corps, that is, up to 60,000 men, combining a French division and national capabilities at the top of the military spectrum, with one or more allied divisions."
General Pierre Schill continued: the French army "is prepared. Whatever the evolution of the international situation, the French can be convinced:
their soldiers will respond
."
Is 20,000 soldiers a significant mobilization?
“This is what the French army can do today in the event of a major crisis,” explained General Jérôme Pellistrandi, former general and director of the Revue Défense Nationale. "
This is what we can do today
at the military level with materials and equipment, together with our NATO and European Union partners." The duration of “thirty days is the operating contract.”
“The military force would be constituted based on needs: parachute brigade, infantry, artillery, engineers,” explained General Jérôme Pellistrandi. The French army, whose Force and Land Operations Command is based in Lille, has 77,000 men in total.
There are no French forces in Ukraine
. A battalion of about 800 French soldiers is deployed in Romania, in Cincu. France provides multinational command of NATO soldiers. Its mission: guarantee the security of Europe's eastern flank to avoid an extension of the conflict in the border countries. Further north in Europe, there are fighter jets stationed in Lithuania, to protect the Baltics against the Russians. More than 2,000 French soldiers are participating in the eastern flank of Europe, indicated the Ministry of the Armed Forces.
France is also the only European State that has the capacity to evaluate the space situation: detection and tracking of satellites in low orbit using Air Force, GRAVES and SATAN radars (COSMOS tool).