Within the scheme of basic needs to win the runoff,
Sergio Massa
and his team had made a calculation:
they had to get about 30 points ahead of
Javier Milei in the Conurbano
to compensate for what was happening in the rest of the country.
But the difference in that region was
only 10 points
, which anticipated the national debacle.
And
that particular photo of Greater Buenos Aires (November 2023) continued to mutate
, according to a
new survey
accessed by
Clarín
and which brings several surprises.
It is a study by
Trespuntozero
, the firm run by analyst
Shila Vilker
and which correctly predicted Massa's victory in the first round and Milei's in the second.
This month it compiled a survey of
10,600 online cases in the 24 GBA games
, with +/- 1% margin of error.
The work is extensive.
He filtered through the eyes of the residents of those localities, many neglected decades ago, the
main figures of national, provincial and local politics
.
For this first note, Clarín focuses on the best-known leaders in the country. And interesting titles appear: for example, that despite the adjustment Milei is measuring better than Cristina in the Conurbano; and even Vice President Victoria Villarruel is already fighting hand in hand with the former president.
The top five
A fact that confirms the critical view of Buenos Aires residents on the political class, especially the national one, is that
none of the 16 leaders evaluated pass the basic test of having more support than rejection
.
Although there are two that end up relatively close, they do not escape the rule of having more negative than positive image.
They are
Axel Kicillof
and the aforementioned
Villarruel
.
The Buenos Aires governor combines
47.7% in favor and 49.8% against (differential of - 2.1 points)
and
the vice president, + 43.9% and - 46.3% (balance - 2.4).
It is worth stopping here, because if the ranking were ordered by the differential and not by the positive image,
Villarruel would be above Cristina and even Milei
.
It is not surprising: as
Clarín
has been saying , the vice measures very well in this type of tables.
But
Trespuntozero
, like many consultancies, orders by rating in favor and thus, below Kicillof,
Milei appears.
The President finishes with
+ 44.8% and - 51.2% (balance - 6.4)
.
Then Cristina
completes the podium
, with
+ 44.2% and - 53.1% (balance - 8.9)
and
Patricia Bullrich
is fifth , with
+ 42.9% and - 52% (balance - 9.1)
.
The Minister of Security is commendable, as she also has numbers very similar to the former president.
The middle six
The middle part of the table includes weighty names and eye-catching comparisons.
Massa
, who hoped to make the big electoral difference in the Conurbano, is mixed in a group in which
no one reaches 40 points positive
.
The former minister and presidential candidate of Unión por la Patria scores
+ 39.1% and - 57.7% (balance - 18.6)
.
Below appears his internal rival, the picketer
Juan Grabois
.
With another asterisk: as in the Cristina-Villarruel case, if the ranking had been ordered by differential,
Grabois would surpass Massa
.
He had
- 12.2, for 36.5% positive and 48.7% negative.
Macri is still further down, with 32 in favor and a rejection that already exceeds 60 points (62%, - 31.5 balance). It is difficult for the former president to admit it, but these numbers in the Conurbano, which have been going on for a long time, influenced his decision to step down as a candidate in the last election.
Barely better than the former president of Cambiemos, Máximo Kirchner
is doing
.
Combines
+ 32.5% with - 58.8% (balance - 26.8)
.
A burden for those who once dreamed of seeing him as governor of Buenos Aires or, even more adventurous, as president.
The middle table is completed by former minister
Eduardo "Wado" de Pedro (+ 35.2% and - 42.2%, balance - 7)
and vice-governor
Verónica Magario
(+ 34.9% and - 44%, balance - 9,1)
.
These are acceptable numbers, although their lower level of knowledge works against them.
The five below
The bottom of the table has more provincial than national leaders.
And when the table is ordered by positive image, how De Pedro and Magario are
harmed by the lower level of knowledge
.
Diego Santilli
:
32% positive
and 43.1% negative (
balance - 11.1 points
).
Guillermo Moreno
:
+ 31.9%
and - 50.1% (
balance - 18.2
).
Sergio Berni
:
+ 31.1%
and - 57.6% (
balance - 26.5
).
Cristian Ritondo
:
+ 28.7%
and - 41.6% (
balance - 12.9
).
Gabriel Katopodis
:
+ 28.5%
and - 35.8% (
balance - 7.3
).