Another hectic weekend ahead in the south-east of France? A Mediterranean episode could be confirmed in the days to come in eastern Languedoc and the Cévennes. “The atmospheric indices lean heavily towards a new burst of water,” announces the Météo Languedoc site. It could be more sustained than the previous Cévennes episode, which has just ended, with up to 300 mm of precipitation expected in the Cévennes, particularly north of Alès.
The harsh reality of the #climate in the #Mediterranean: nearly 300 mm expected for the #Easter weekend in #Cevennes and barely 1 mm in #Perpignan which is experiencing extreme #drought! Our final point ⬇️https://t.co/FjHNEo0KWK pic.twitter.com/xpRXCTGCkH
— Météo Languedoc (@MeteoLanguedoc) March 28, 2024
The contrast is striking with Perpignan and its surroundings, in blue on the map, a territory plagued by drought and where rain should be almost zero this weekend, according to the forecast site. For its part, Météo France notes for the weekend that “conditions should often remain mild in flows oriented to the south, but still disturbed over the country, under the influence of low pressures over the Atlantic up to the Spain”.
A Mediterranean episode is characterized by severe bad weather in regions bordering the Mediterranean, in particular heavy and sudden precipitation, which can exceed 200 mm of water in one day, specifies the national forecast agency.
Between 100 and 150 mm in 24 hours
If pressures remain low this mid-week between the Atlantic, France and the Iberian Peninsula, “a very active low pressure system is evolving over the Atlantic” and could lead to heavy precipitation this weekend, explains Météo Languedoc. It should head towards Spain at the end of the week, and an outgrowth of the depression could extend “between the United Kingdom, the west of France, the entire Iberian Peninsula and reaching the west of the Mediterranean basin” .
In the south of France, the phenomenon is “likely to drain significant quantities of
precipitable
water for the season”, specifies the site. The episode could be “more substantial” than the one that has just ended, but the forecasts must still be refined in the next 48 hours.
The precise location of the low pressure zone, in other words the area where the rains will be most intense, still remains uncertain. Météo Languedoc currently favors one scenario: that of a “first deterioration” in eastern Languedoc and the Cévennes from Saturday. “It will be quite transient, circulating quickly, but already producing good watering between eastern Hérault, Gard and Cévennes/Lozère,” notes the site. As for Sunday, a Cévennes episode is expected "between Gard, Lozère and Ardèche", with precipitation estimated between 100 and 150 mm in 24 hours "on these relief areas". The south wind could be “strong to very strong”.
Repeated Mediterranean episodes
“The door will always be open to depressions, so the Easter weekend promises to be wet,” Alix Roumagnac, head of the company Predict, which specializes in weather risks, explained to Midi Libre at the start of the week. He also underlined that the recent successive rains were saturating the soil, calling for careful “monitoring” of the evolution of the weather. According to him, we will have to wait until mid-April to hope to find stable, good weather in the area.
The region has recorded repeated Mediterranean episodes in recent weeks: the phenomenon at the start of the week was the fifth of this type since February. At the beginning of March, heavy rains linked to the Monica depression, combined with one of these episodes, led to heavy flooding, killing eight people: six in Gard, one in Hérault and one in Ardèche.
Also read: Rain and strong wind in Hérault: why are we talking about a Cévennes episode?
If Mediterranean episodes generally occur at the end of summer or during autumn, they can also appear at other times of the year. But the current precipitation totals are “unusual for the month of March”, according to Météo France. Heavy rains in Mediterranean regions have intensified in recent decades, while the strongest Mediterranean episodes have increased, the meteorological organization specifies on its website.
A development partly linked to global warming, since “scientific studies agree to conclude that there is an increase in the intensity of these Mediterranean events in a warmer climate”. Météo France thus recalls that the Mediterranean “is among the global
hotspots
of climate change”.