As of: March 28, 2024, 6:43 p.m
By: Tadhg Nagel
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Russia influences Western decision-making. This is his most powerful weapon in the Ukraine war, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
Washington - The US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has published a report that identifies Russia's influence on the formation of public opinion in Western countries as the country's most important strategy in the Ukraine war. Accordingly, the West and Ukraine can only win the war if Russian disinformation is countered.
According to the ISW, Vladimir Putin can only win the Ukraine war by influencing opinion in the West. © IMAGO/Mikhail Metzel
A paper published by the think tank on Wednesday (March 27) explains why Russia's victory on the battlefield depends on the war on the propaganda front, because Moscow cannot win otherwise. The military capabilities of Western countries would far exceed those of Russia.
If you then look at the combined gross domestic product (GDP) of NATO states, non-NATO states, the European Union and the alliance's Asian allies - over $63 trillion - the matter becomes even clearer. Because Russia's GDP is in the order of $1.9 trillion; Even Russia's closest allies, Iran and North Korea, would contribute little financial strength.
Russia wants to make the West unable to act: Putin is targeting decision-making
If the West were to get more involved, the ISW concludes, Russia would have no chance of winning the Ukraine war - a fact that Russia is aware of. Therefore, Russia launched an information campaign to spread the word that the war could not be won due to Russian dominance. This fact gives an insight into the Kremlin's real strategy and its only real hope for success: to make Ukraine's Western allies, above all the USA, unable to act. Only then could Moscow fight Ukraine in isolation and ultimately defeat it.
Vladimir Putin's main focus is therefore on his ability to influence the will and decisions of the West, Ukraine and Russia itself. The Russian strategy that matters most is not Moscow's war-fighting strategy, but rather that of getting the rest of the world to assess the situation the way Russia wants. This should ensure that political decisions are made “in this alternative reality created by the Kremlin” - which would enable Putin to win the war in the real world.
A “fabricated representation of reality” - Putin wants to unsettle the West about the war in Ukraine
The Kremlin is trying to make “claims about Russia’s fabricated representation of reality” the basis of the discussion in the West. An example of this is the claim that Russia has "the right to a self-defined sphere of influence and therefore the right to do whatever it wants with the people in that sphere - including invasion, killing, rape and ethnic cleansing." The perfidious thing about the strategy is that Russia's influence is aimed at those who "see through and recognize that Russia's war is an unprovoked war of conquest."
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The conscious aim is to “perceive costs, priorities, risks, benefits, consistency with our values and the effects of our own actions”. There are basically two main categories of false claims that one is trying to enforce. One is that Ukraine can't win the war, so the war is just a diversion from the real problems of the US; These ran the risk of being involved in another “forever” war. Arguments in the second category, on the other hand, would fuel fear that the risks of helping Ukraine are too high; So it is “too expensive, too risky” and Ukraine is “not worth it”.
“Many sensible decisions” were made - But Russia's influence is enormous
Ultimately, however, according to the ISW, the United States has the power to thwart Russia's only winning strategy. In the past, it was admitted that “Russia played an outsized role in shaping American decision-making.” However, “many sensible decisions” were made regarding the Ukraine war. Ukraine's most important successes have always been the result of strategic clarity. Hesitant decisions, however, would have led to missed opportunities on the battlefield. In the USA you have to be careful to make decisions that are “connected to your own interests, values and facts” and are not controlled by others.
Implementation could prove difficult, however, given that in recent years Russia has “manufactured a series of false narratives that its disinformation and propaganda ecosystem persistently feeds into the global information environment,” according to the US Embassy website. Ahead of the upcoming US election, Moscow has also increased its efforts to spread pro-isolationist arguments, the
New York Times
reports. This could work to Donald Trump's advantage and is a sign that Russia - as with Trump's first election in 2016 - is actively working to influence the US presidential election.
(tpn)