As of: March 28, 2024, 1:25 p.m
By: Florian Naumann
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Markus Söder is campaigning for Serbia to join the EU - probably also to push back influence from Russia and China. But critics see dangers.
Brussels/Vienna – Aleksandar Vučić had gone to great lengths for the guest from Bavaria, who was not averse to a good production: arterial streets decorated with white and blue flags and “A cheers to coziness” at lunch in the residence, as the dpa news agency reported
in
mid-March Belgrade sent a message to Bavaria. Great honor for a German country leader. Serbia's much-criticized head of state then praised Markus Söder as a "friend". He, in turn, called himself a “lawyer” for southern and southeastern Europe.
In principle, there is nothing to be said against “friendships” in times of war returning to Europe. And Serbia is not just a “gateway to the East” for Söder: the country is traditionally an ally of Russia – friendly influence can’t hurt. But doubts remain in the details: Serbia's parliamentary election was overshadowed by allegations of manipulation, Vučić continues to stir up the Kosovo conflict and Putin's influence on Belgrade and its neighbors is anything but passé.
The political dilemma goes far beyond Söder. The big question: Should democratic Europe ensure good weather with not-so-flawless democrats in order to contain Putin; even open the gates to the EU? Or would it be better to forge alliances against top politicians with autocratic tendencies? Söder said Europe urgently needs Serbia. The Viennese political scientist Vedran Džihić, on the other hand, warns of a “boomerang”. And EU Parliament Vice President Katarina Barley also calls for
“consistent action” in an interview with
Merkur.de
from
Ippen.Media .
Söder, the EU and Serbia: joining as a wall against Putin – or a mistake
“Compromises between the EU and autocrats ultimately fall on our feet,” said Barley. The enlargement of the EU is “an opportunity to promote peace, freedom and prosperity in Europe”. However, the prerequisite is that all criteria relating to democracy and the rule of law are met: “There can be no shortcuts here.” An explosive question in the year of the European elections.
Whether there will be shortcuts is anyone's guess: EU accession negotiations are underway with Serbia. Söder, for example, spoke out in favor of admitting the country - also as a precaution against influences from Russia and China. And Barley at least attested that Ursula von der Leyen's EU Commission had a certain bias. “For example, in the dispute between Serbia and Kosovo last September, the Commission unilaterally imposed sanctions only against Kosovo. “In doing so, she sends contradictory signals,” complained the SPD politician.
Cuddling class with Putin's friends? “Flies the EU like a boomerang in the face”
Džihić expressed himself
a little more clearly to
Merkur.de
: He sees the EU on the wrong track in important respects. The focus is also on expansion in the Western Balkans - for example with an economic support plan for six billion euros. “It turns out that this doesn’t necessarily work,” he clarified. Especially in Serb-dominated areas there is an “anti-Western and anti-EU mood”, as well as an “authoritarian style of government”, “very close proximity to Russia” and “offensive action against political opponents”. The political scientist instead gave “two mini-recommendations”:
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Handshake between friends? Markus Söder (left) with Aleksandar Vučić in mid-March. © Michael Donhauser/dpa/picture-alliance
“The EU must act more clearly against the authoritarian trend, draw red lines and communicate more sharply,” he demanded – this also applies “if Vučić steals elections.” “In an ideal world, people turning a blind eye to this should actually stop, because it will fly back in the face of the EU like a boomerang,” warned the expert. A prominent example is Viktor Orbán's Hungary. The country repeatedly blocks EU aid and sanctions plans, especially in connection with the Ukraine war.
The great danger is a kind of “stabilocracy” that results in “compromises with autocrats”. Instead, Brussels should cooperate more closely with alternative political forces, with environmental or election protests, pro-democracy and pro-European forces. And at the same time reform the accession process. Džihić's formula is: “Support those who make an effort, such as Kosovo or Montenegro. And for the others: clearly state the problem.”
Serbia in the EU? Söder's visit does not moderate Vučić - Barley demands help for other candidates
Barley agrees on this point, as she explained
to Merkur.de
: “Some countries are making enormous efforts to meet the EU's conditions. North Macedonia even changed its name. We must not abandon these countries on their way to the EU,” she demanded. She also explicitly supported cooperation with pro-democracy forces in the civilian population.
In fact, Söder's friendly visit does not seem to have provoked any unexpected changes of course in Serbia. Most recently, Vučić even threatened to
leave
the Council of Europe if Kosovo were admitted there. When it came to Bosnia-Herzegovina, the president also used martial words: “We will fight. Serbia will win,” he said. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbian nationalists, especially Putin's friend Milorad Dodik, have been dividing for a long time and the situation always seems explosive. And Sarajevo will now also negotiate accession with the EU.
It remains unclear whether rapprochement and EU accession actually bind the countries to Brussels instead of to Putin - or whether they only increase the extent of the conflict and pro-Russian votes in the EU. At the same time, possibly the camp of the right-wing populists: such ideas have long been “mainstreamed” in Serbia or the Republika Srpska in Bosnia, says Dzihic.
Söder believes in variant 1: the hope of tearing Serbia and Co. out of Putin's clutches and keeping China's influence away - Beijing, for example, has already been very active in Montenegro, albeit with a bizarre to bitter outcome for the time being. “It would be a great loss for Europe, and I think also for Serbia, if this path is not taken,” warned Söder. He also recalled economic advantages. Perhaps that's why Vučić awarded him a medal. The recipients of the award also include: Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orbán. Söder was also in China shortly after the visit to Serbia - but expressed quite clear words.
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