As of: March 30, 2024, 4:37 p.m
By: Karsten Hinzmann
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The hope for Ukraine's fight for freedom: a General Dynamics F-16 - initially the multi-purpose jet has an extremely high symbolic value, but its combat value is doubted by experts. (Symbolic photo) © IMAGO / Björn Trotsky
This plane can do a lot, but few people trust him to make the decision in the Ukraine war. The F-16 is intended to drive up costs for Vladimir Putin.
Kiev - The defenders' hopes are flying high, and of all people, a Briton is causing them to fall to the ground again: "Many Ukrainians assume that fighter jets like the F-16 and the Swedish Gripen, which they are to receive, will make a decisive difference. In my opinion they won't,” Frank Ledwidge told the television station
n-tv
at the end of last year . The former officer and current history professor sees no room for extensive or successful air battles in the Ukraine war. Nevertheless, Ukraine is to be equipped with F-16 aircraft.
The Pentagon expects initial operational readiness of the F-16 in Ukraine before the end of this year, FlugRevue reports
:
“Our goal is to provide Ukraine with its F-16 program in 2024 with an initial operational capability that requires trained pilots “which would include platforms, but also trained maintainers and supervisors, infrastructure as well as spare parts and ammunition,” said Celeste Wallander, Undersecretary of State for International Security Affairs at the US Department of Defense. The F-16 is considered an off-the-shelf all-rounder. It was developed in the USA in the 1970s as a low-cost, general-purpose jet for sale to partner countries. The F-16 is the world's largest fighter jet still in service. The jet is still produced in the USA and is constantly being improved.
Jets in their sights: Putin's planes stay at a distance - for fear of being shot down
More than 4,600 examples of the Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon are said to have been built; No western supersonic fighter can compete with these numbers - however, Frank Ledwidge remains skeptical and sees the supposed “game changer” as a similar flop to that of the western tanks, as he said on
n-tv
: “The war in Ukraine shows that from my point of view the absolutely central role of ground-based air defense systems. Since World War II, as early as the last year of World War II, the vast majority of aircraft shot down in combat were shot down from the ground. This pattern has become increasingly clear over the decades and is currently at its peak in Ukraine.”
“Ukraine’s ability to continue to counter Russian air threats and impose costs on Russian aerospace forces remains important to the outcome of the war.”
Giorgio Di Mizio & Douglas Barrie from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
Ledwidge sees himself confirmed by the think tank
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS);
According to their analyses, Russia is currently trying to reduce Ukraine's ground-based air defense base. According to current information, Russia is trying to gain an advantage over the battlefield through gliding bombs: “Moscow has been increasingly relying on the use of gliding bombs since the beginning of 2023. These weapons allow Russia to supplement its inadequate inventory of tactical air missiles and avoid the use of free-fall bombs, which put pilots at greater risk of being shot down." So Vladimir Putin's troops are trying to wear down Ukrainian air defenses while keeping a distance to stay.
Jet on the way: The first F-16s are expected to be deployed in Romania
If Ukraine wants to win the fight against the Russian attackers, it must gain air supremacy - as the now deposed Supreme Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valeriy Zalushnyj analyzed a long time ago. That's why the F-16s are so eagerly awaited by Ukraine. The machines are now actually moving closer to the front: In November, the Ukrainian Air Force received the first F-16 fighter jets from the Netherlands for the war against Russia. The jets are probably still stationed in Romania and training is now underway for their pilots.
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“In the best case scenario, Ukraine will be able to emerge from this war as a winner with this air fleet initially consisting of 42 F-16 jets and with anti-aircraft weapons on the ground, which also come from NATO,” said Romanian military expert Catalin Pitu confidently Deutsche
Welle
claims. Ukraine could equip the F-16 fighter jets with “a wide range of missiles” from the NATO arsenal. Fighter jets can attack targets in the air as well as on the ground. In air combat, a jet with air-to-air missiles can destroy a target that is also flying. A jet can attack targets on the ground with air-to-ground missiles or drop simple free-fall bombs that fall to the ground "according to the laws of physics," Leonhard Houben, historian at the Berlin-Gatow Military History Museum, told
Deutsche Welle
.
Air force without jet: Ukrainian air defense inflicts heavy losses on Russia
The Ukrainian air defense has actually achieved some sensational successes in recent months, writes the
IISS
- for example, the downing of the Russian Beriev A-50 early warning aircraft and several Russian fighter jets - but that cannot hide the strain on the Ukrainian armed forces in defending against Russian, especially missile-based air strikes - they must create a screen over mobile troops, population centers and critical national infrastructure, such as the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. In order to overcome these simultaneous challenges, the force had to adapt - a functioning air defense from the air would be the logical next step.
However, the first F-16s will not be able to take off from Ukrainian runways for a long time. Denmark had promised 19 jets with a planned transfer in the second quarter of this year. It is questionable when the Dutch machines will be moved from Romania - they had promised a total of 42 machines that their own armed forces were in the process of decommissioning. Machines could also come from Norway. The USA itself does not contribute any aircraft, but must approve every transfer - which it has generally already done.
Jet without weapons: Like a fire truck without a turntable ladder
However , FlugRevue
asks
in more detail what kind of weapons the F-16 will carry and where they will come from - without weapons, the F-16 would only be comparable to a fire engine without a turntable ladder, Robert Kluge from the German Museum told
Deutsche Welle
. In addition, it needs to be clarified how Ukraine wants to coordinate its air fleet or keep the individual aircraft operational on the ground protected - every hour of flight requires several hours of maintenance.
“The AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missile will certainly be on the list, which is also suitable for defending against enemy drones and other missiles. F/A-18 Super Hornets recently demonstrated this in action against the Houthi militias. Aside from the Ukrainian pilots' lack of operational experience on the F-16, there are other challenges. For effective use of the US model, integration into appropriate tactical surveillance and command systems is also necessary, and of course the jets also have to be protected on the ground,” writes
FlugRevue
.
“Myth” Jet: “Possessing them alone can be enough to make enemies change their minds.”
However, Ledwidge sees Ukraine still doing well in the race with its currently limited resources; Ukraine forced at least a draw from Russia in the sky. “What we see in Ukraine is mutual denial of air. This is pretty new, it hasn't been around for a long time, if ever. Neither side can achieve air superiority. This shows that control of the air is important - but it is even more important to ensure that it is not left to the enemy." However, this is only a snapshot, as the
IISS
warns: "Kiev is faced with the danger of a war of attrition in the airspace without adequate support from the USA and its allies will increasingly favor Russia. “Ukraine’s ability to continue to counter Russian air threats and impose costs on Russian aerospace forces remains important to the outcome of the war.”
At worst, the F-16 will keep the war going instead of ending it, or it may initially only serve to drive up the costs for Vladimir Putin to dizzying heights. However, in war, fighter jets are more than the sum of their technical capabilities. Robert Kluge describes the airplane as a “myth” because, unlike humans, it can also move in the third dimension. A fighter jet can also be seen as a symbol that can boost the morale of one's troops. And as an important chess piece in the strategy of a war: “Their possession alone can be enough to make enemies change their minds.”