As of: March 30, 2024, 10:07 p.m
By: Bedrettin Bölükbasi
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Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu from the CHP. (Archive image) © Tolga Ildun/IMAGO
In the local elections in Turkey, all eyes are on the metropolis of Istanbul. The election in the city is seen as a mood test for the country.
Istanbul - In the local elections in Turkey on Sunday (March 31), President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pursuing a clear goal: The head of state and his ruling party AKP want to recapture the Bosphorus metropolis of Istanbul, which has been ruled by the opposition for five years. But the Kurdish minority could thwart Erdogan's plans with a tactical vote. According to experts, the Kurds could tip the scales. Because many supporters of the pro-Kurdish DEM party are likely to vote for Erdogan's rival in Istanbul, the incumbent mayor Ekrem Imamoglu from the largest opposition party CHP. Polls suggest a close race.
The opposition's success in the 2019 local elections would not have been possible without Kurdish support. At that time, the DEM – the successor party to the HDP – did not run its own candidates in the big cities. Instead, she called on her approximately six million followers to vote for the opposition alliance.
Local elections in Turkey: Pro-Kurdish party is likely to decide the race in Istanbul
However, the Kurds face a dilemma in this year's local elections. The DEM is sending its own candidate Meral Danis Bestas into the race in Istanbul. But she is far behind in surveys. Many Kurdish voters are therefore still torn and undecided, says Yüksel Genc from the Samer opinion research institute. 40 percent of DEM supporters said they would vote for Imamoglu. “They are considering voting for their party candidate, but they don’t want the AKP to win.” Erdogan's government has been cracking down on Kurdish parties since the peace process to end the decades-long uprising by the banned PKK failed in 2015.
Roj Girasun, director of the think tank Rawest Research, argues that the DEM and the CHP have reached an agreement in some parts of Istanbul, making it easier for DEM voters to support Imamoglu. About half of them are inclined to vote for Imamoglu. Erdogan, who was mayor of Istanbul between 1994 and 1998, described this as a “dirty deal” designed to stoke tensions between the parties.
However, Istanbul DEM top candidate Bestas rejected the idea of tactical voting. “We call on people to vote for us,” she said in a recent interview. There are currently no signs of a return to the peace process, but democratization requires a solution to the Kurdish question. “A Turkey in which a quarter of the population is excluded and discriminated against and whose demands are not met cannot be democratic,” said Bestas. The Kurds make up around 15 to 20 percent of Turkey's 85 million inhabitants.
Local elections in Turkey: Former Construction Minister Kurum as Erdogan's candidate in Istanbul
For the planned recapture of Istanbul, Erdogan is sending Murat Kurum into the race as mayoral candidate, who will serve as Minister for the Environment, Urban Planning and Climate Change in 2023. After the devastating earthquake in February last year, the 47-year-old civil engineer made a name for himself through his work in creating emergency shelters.
Municipal elections in Turkey elect city councils, provincial councils and mayors. The elections are also a test of sentiment for Erdogan, who has been in office since 2014. He won the runoff elections for the presidency in Turkey in May 2023. However, large parts of the population and the opposition were disappointed at the time because they had hoped for a change of power. Disillusionment and attrition then spread across the predominantly Muslim country, also in view of the ongoing economic crisis.
In the 2019 local elections, the AKP had to give up the town halls in major cities such as Ankara and Antalya in addition to Istanbul. However, the Bosphorus metropolis has a special meaning for Erdogan. He started his political career there as mayor. Around 16 million people live in Istanbul, making up around 20 percent of Turkey's total population. In addition, a large part of Turkey's gross domestic product is generated in the city.
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Consumers in Turkey are suffering from an economic crisis that is accompanied by runaway inflation, which has recently reached more than 67 percent. The long-term decline in the local currency, the lira, is one reason for this, as imported goods become more expensive. A more restrictive financial policy is expected for the period after the local elections, which is likely to affect many Turks economically.
Opposition in Turkey is weakening: Erdogan senses an opportunity
Erdogan now has an opportunity to recapture the metropolis, which had been ruled by his AKP for 25 years until the recent local elections. The opposition is shattered and has not recovered from losing the presidential and parliamentary elections last year. In 2019, Imamoglu was supported by the Kurdish HDP and the IYI party to overthrow the AKP in Istanbul. In these elections, however, the three main opposition parties are not running with a common platform, but with their own candidates.
According to the latest polls, a neck-and-neck race is emerging between Imamoglu and his challenger Kurum. For Imamoglu, the election is also about higher goals. If he wins, he can hope to run for president in 2028. However, Imamoglu is currently in trouble with the judicial authorities. A court sentenced him to prison in 2022 for insulting members of the State Election Commission. The case will now be heard in the next instance. However, Imamoglu faces a ban on political activity if the verdict becomes final.