As of: April 1, 2024, 4:53 a.m
By: Felix Busjaeger
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Russia's losses in the Ukraine war lead to a rethink by Putin's army. Due to the Ukrainian drone attacks, mobile squads are to be deployed.
Moscow - For a few weeks now, the Russian hinterland has no longer been considered safe: Ukraine was recently on the defensive on many fronts in the Ukrainian war, but the defenders repeatedly managed to attack the attackers' oil infrastructure with drones - also in Russia itself. What was considered unthinkable in the first months of the war has now become a bitter reality for Vladimir Putin: his country seems to be able to do little to counter the attacks. But given the current situation in the Ukraine war, Putin's troops are now relying on a new tactic.
Because of Russia's losses in the Ukraine war: Army changes tactics after drone attacks
In February and March, Ukraine increased drone attacks on Russia in the Ukraine war, and Russia regularly experiences losses in its own energy supply. Dozens of regions are likely to be the focus of the attacks - and this may be a crucial problem for Putin: Due to its territorial size, Russia's air defense is unlikely to be able to effectively repel all Ukrainian drone attacks. According to the
Institute for the Study of War (ISW),
this has caused a rethink in Russian warfare. Meanwhile, Russia is provoking over the Baltic Sea: NATO fighter jets have had to take off several times in the past few days because of Russian aircraft.
Russian soldiers from an artillery brigade fire at Ukrainian forces in the Avdiivka sector (picture from March 8, 2024). Because of drone attacks, different tactics should be used in the future. © IMAGO/Stanislav Krasilnikov/SNA
Given its Soviet past, some experts classify the Russian army as sluggish and sedate. Compared to the Ukrainians' very agile warfare, this always turns out to be a serious disadvantage. According to
ISW,
the Russian state broadcaster
Izvestia
now reported
that Russia's army is increasingly relying on mobile task forces to defend against drones in the Ukraine war. Anonymous military sources have reported that these unspecified weapons groups have thermal imaging cameras, electronic warfare (EW) systems and pickup trucks with mounted machine guns.
Russia is using mobile task forces in the Ukraine war: facilities are to be protected against drones
According to the institute's assessment, the mobile task forces could be a direct response to the recent intensification of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries in February and March. In the previous course of the war, Volodymyr Zelensky's troops had already used similar tactics in order to be able to react more spontaneously to Russian attacks. How large the Russian groups are and where they are stationed is currently unknown. At the same time, there are reports that Russia is also trying to better protect its energy assets. Accordingly, the Russian Ministry of Energy should work with Rosgvardia to increase the use of the Pantsir-S1 air defense systems.
Just a few weeks ago it was said that Russia was in a position to go on the offensive on many parts of the front due to its reserves and despite the losses in the Ukraine war. According to
Deutsche Welle,
this has changed since mid-March: Putin's troops are unlikely to be able to continue the material-intensive attacks with the same intensity. This could possibly also be related to Ukraine's increased drone attacks: "The production of refineries determines the amount of fuel that Russian troops can consume on the territory of Ukraine," military analyst Jan Matveyev told
DW
.
Russia's losses in the Ukraine war: refineries crucial to the offensive
According to the expert, Russia's current losses in the Ukraine war will inevitably lead to a slowdown in the offensive. Reducing the amount of fuel would have a direct impact on the number of operations carried out by the Russian army, Matveyev continued. “The less the refineries produce, the fewer attacks there will be on the Ukrainian armed forces.” In addition to the immediate damage to Putin’s army, experts also expect serious psychological consequences.
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Accordingly, Russian troop morale could suffer as a result of Ukraine's successful attacks. Opposite the
Tagesschau
Military economist Markus Keupp spoke weeks ago of the fact that the successful drone attacks indicate that Ukraine currently “still has reserves” and that these resources are being used to stabilize the situation in the Ukraine war. At the same time, he spoke of the possibility of a new phase in the Ukraine war. But he didn't see a real turning point at that time. For Putin's allies, however, the current phase seems to be a reason to once again threaten escalation and a nuclear attack in the Ukraine war.
Russia is relying on new tactics in the Ukraine war: success against drones remains to be seen
The fact that Russia is relying on new tactics in the course of the Ukraine war is not a new development. At the beginning of the year, the
ISW
also reported that Putin's army was using ground troops to jump behind enemy lines, but this approach was unsuccessful due to failures. Already at the beginning of the war, Russia had briefly relied on this tactic - also with manageable success.
(fbu)