As of: April 3, 2024, 6:05 a.m
By: Moritz Maier
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AI and robots will replace millions of jobs, not just in factories, especially in offices. Why this doesn't have to be a horror scenario.
Berlin – Although the potential of artificial intelligence (AI), robots and automation has been talked about for a long time, the influence of new technology on the job market is still limited. That is likely to change quickly. The OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) speaks of an emerging AI revolution. Thomas Rohrbach, an expert in digital transformation, knows that AI doesn’t just mean automatic assembly lines. He predicts that office jobs in medium-sized businesses in particular will be replaced by robots.
Automation and problems in the German economy
The German economy is stumbling. The economy is not really getting going and there is a shortage of trainees and skilled workers. Many experts also complain about a backlog of innovation and a lack of digitalization among German companies. In this difficult situation, automation will now lead to fundamental changes, says transformation expert Rohrbach, who advises companies with his company Neonex. “This is not a development that only became known yesterday. The problem is that many German companies recognized the importance of automation too late and are now a little overrun.”
On the one hand, automation affects jobs in factories. Due to technical innovations and falling prices, robots are becoming more and more worthwhile. “There are already examples like this in Japan. There, robots build themselves and there is virtually no one working in the factory,” says Rohrbach, who points to foreign countries as technical pioneers. According to Rohrbach, it doesn't stop there. “Automation and robotics will not only affect jobs in factories. It’s also about hundreds of thousands of middle-class office workers who, for example, transfer information from one system to another, create reports from it or calculate something and work between interfaces.”
Bank and insurance employees are becoming obsolete
“These are classic employees from banks or insurance companies. There, in traditional medium-sized businesses, automation will hit like a bomb,” says the digitalization expert. “In the future there will either be better IT systems that will make the interfaces obsolete, or software robots will be used that will then do the classic office job.” According to Rohrbach, these systems are currently experiencing an enormous price drop, so that classic medium-sized businesses will soon rely on software robots instead Office workers can put.
Rohrbach is not alone with this assessment. In its current labor market report, the OECD assumes that AI will lead to huge waves of automation, particularly among lower-skilled and younger workers. “In Germany, the proportion of jobs with the highest risk of automation corresponds to 28.7 percent of employment,” the report says.
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Automation as a stroke of luck?
The fact that many jobs will fall victim to automation is no longer a distant future scenario. This is supported, on the one hand, by the falling prices for technology and, on the other hand, by the increasing problem of a lack of employees. According to Rohrbach, this is by no means a horror scenario. “The topic of automation is particularly important in view of the shortage of skilled workers,” says the expert. “And that’s not a bad thing, because the workers are needed elsewhere.”
In fact, according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, in addition to the existing skills shortage, around seven million more workers will be lost by 2030 due to the retiring baby boomer generation. Automation can therefore be an opportunity for companies and German prosperity. Since AI and robots take on particularly less demanding tasks, companies must now focus on further training for their employees. According to an OECD survey, 71 percent of manufacturing companies and 64 percent of financial companies are already training their employees.
“Developments can no longer be stopped”
For transformation expert Rohrbach, automation is more of an opportunity than a threat. “The goal is not a deserted factory, because people are still fundamental to value creation.” Instead, the fewer employees in Germany have to do highly qualified work, for which they are also paid accordingly.
As an example, Rohrbach points to the railway and the recently settled collective bargaining dispute with Klaus Weselsky's GDL, which demanded significantly more attractive salaries. “Then as a company you have to see that you can make savings elsewhere through automation in order to then pay the highly qualified employees a corresponding salary.” For the expert, there is no alternative to automation due to economic pressure. “In the end, such developments cannot be stopped.”