26 to 27°C in Paris, 30°C in the Lande or the Basque Country… An early heat peak is expected in a large part of France from the end of the week, Météo France confirmed this Wednesday.
“From Thursday, temperatures increase in the south of the country to reach a peak on Saturday over a large part of the territory with 25-30 °C and up to 26-27 °C in the northern half of the country,” indicates the forecaster on its website.
Temperatures will start to rise from Thursday. An almost summer-like mildness will first reach the South-West, before spreading from Friday. The 25°C mark should thus be reached in several regions, including Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, and Centre-Val de Loire, even Franche-Comté and Alsace. The mercury could even rise to 30°C near the Pyrenees.
Above normal “until mid-April”
The peak of this early heat sequence will be reached on Saturday, with temperatures which could exceed 30°C in Landes, the Basque Country and Béarn. The Paris Basin, Champagne, Franche-Comté and Alsace will not be left out with 26 to 27°C.
“This heat is however not uniform across the country, since Brittany, Cotentin, the west of Pays de la Loire and even the Gulf of Lion remain away with more temperate temperatures,” notes Météo France. .
Temperatures should then drop again from Sunday, even if temperatures will remain “long-term” above seasonal norms, “at least until mid-April”, according to the forecaster.
Already precedents
If this heat peak is clearly defined as “early” by Météo France, it would not be the first time. In the northern half, “25°C is climatologically reached between April 20 and May 10”, but “a few early episodes have taken place recently”. In 2021, it was 25.6°C in Troyes (Aube) and 25.1°C in Orly (Val-de-Marne). In 2011, it was 26.8°C in Auxerre (Yonne). And Météo France recalls that in 1955, on March 25, it was up to 28°C in Châteauroux and 25.7°C in Paris.
“Climatologically, in mainland France, 30°C is exceeded between mid-May and the end of June,” continues Météo France. But recently it got hot much earlier. On March 29, 2023, it was 30.1°C in Dax (Landes) and Mont-de-Marsan (Landes), recalls the weather institute. In 1990, 30°C was recorded in the South-West and near the Mediterranean.
With global warming, these early heat peaks are becoming more and more frequent. Heat waves will also be more frequent and more intense.