As of: April 4, 2024, 5:24 a.m
By: Babett Gumbrecht
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Iran sees Israel behind the attack on its embassy compound in Syria. Now Tehran is announcing revenge for the killed commanders. What scenarios are there?
Tehran/Damascus – Fears of an escalation in the war in Israel are growing. After the suspected Israeli airstrike on an Iranian embassy building in Damascus, which left seven dead, Iran has threatened to retaliate. However, the possible scenarios are limited. According to
CNN
analysis, Iran has four options.
Scenario 1: Iran targets US troops
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian blamed the US for the attack. "It appears that the Iranians blame the US for what Israel has done as much as the US blames Iran for what the Iraqi militias are doing," Trita Parsi, an Iranian-born Middle East expert, told
CNN
.
Amir-Abdollahian called on the international community to respond “seriously” to Israel’s “criminal actions,” according to a statement from Tehran. He also summoned the Swiss envoy. Since Washington does not have a diplomatic mission in Iran, the Swiss head of mission acts as the US representative in Tehran.
Iran has already fought a low-level proxy conflict with the United States through allied militias in Syria and Iraq. However, this conflict has deescalated since the killing of three US soldiers in Jordan in January. In retaliation, the US carried out dozens of strikes on at least seven locations in Iraq and Syria.
The destroyed consulate building of the Iranian embassy. © Ammar Safarjalani/XinHua/dpa
Parsi said Iran's rhetoric since the embassy attack suggests that this "truce" with the US may be over. “That would mean that the Israeli attack on Iran targeted American troops in the Middle East,” he said.
Scenario 2: Iran attacks Israeli facilities abroad
The attack on the Iranian embassy has reached a new level in the conflict. Embassies and consulates are fundamentally under special protection under international law. In the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, Article 22 provides for the inviolability of the premises of a diplomatic mission.
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Several Arab states and China condemned the air strike. A statement from the Saudi Foreign Ministry said attacks on diplomatic facilities constituted a violation of international law and diplomatic immunity. Egypt made a similar statement. The Gulf emirate of Qatar says it views the attack as a “flagrant violation” of international agreements and conventions.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the Chatham House think tank in London, said it was unlikely that Iran would attack Israeli diplomatic missions abroad, adding that Tehran "probably does not want to lose favor." that it acquired through this attack.
Scenario 3: Iran mobilizes Hezbollah against Israel
Iran's most capable militia in the fight against Israel is the Lebanese Hezbollah. It is said to have around 150,000 rockets and precision-guided munitions in close proximity to Israel and has proven capable of penetrating deep into Israeli territory.
However, Israel has been preparing for war with Hezbollah for months and has evacuated more than 40 communities in the north of the country. But experts doubt that Hezbollah is prepared to enter into a devastating war with Israel.
Iran could also mobilize other allied militias in the region, but their ability to harm Israel is limited due to their distance. Since mid-November, the Yemeni Houthi rebels have increasingly been attacking merchant ships that cross the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea along the Yemeni coast on the shortest route between Asia and Europe. The militia says it acts in solidarity with the Islamist Hamas in the Gaza Strip and directs its attacks on freighters with alleged connections to Israel, the USA or Great Britain. Israel itself is also exposed to attacks from the Houthi rebels.
Scenario 4: Iran forgoes direct military consequences
Experts say Iran may be forced to act this time, but warn that Tehran could fall into a trap. A broader war with Israel involving Iran could draw Western nations to Israel's side at a time when Israel is becoming increasingly isolated on the world stage because of its behavior in Gaza.
Sanam Vakil told
CNN
that Iran was unlikely to respond with a direct military attack. Tehran knows that the entire region, Israel and the USA want to avoid a major war.
(bagum)