In three weeks, on the evening of Friday April 26, the Moody's and Fitch agencies will deliver their verdict on the French debt. The government fears bad news from Moody's, which, unlike Fitch, had not downgraded the French rating last year. In the Chamber, the oppositions, already fired up by the announcement of a 2023 deficit 0.6 points higher than expected and propelled to 5.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), are sharpening their weapons. For Bruno Le Maire, who takes a different line from Gabriel Attal on the advisability of opening up the question of possible tax increases, the shock would be above all political.
Far from these tensions, investors are, for the moment, displaying unfailing placidity. This Thursday, on the bond markets, the rate at which France borrows ten years oscillated around 2.9%, a stable level since mid-January, significantly lower than the peak of 3.5% reached last fall. In recent weeks, spreads (the difference…
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