We are talking about scenarios here but unfortunately it is not a work of fiction. Cerema (Center for studies and expertise on risks, environment, mobility and planning) today revealed its forecasts concerning the retreat of the coastline and its impacts on housing built nearby. A publication which follows the declarations of the Minister of Ecological Transition Christophe Béchu Thursday evening in the TF1 news.
To project into a future where our coastline continues to lose ground, two dates have been chosen by scientists: 2050 and 2100. “2050 is the likely scenario,” explains Sébastien Dupray, director of Cerema. For 2100, however, we based ourselves on the most pessimistic option with an increase of one meter in sea level and above all without specific development of the territories concerned. This is what we call the inaction scenario.” Thus, from 4,000 homes threatened in 2050, we reach almost 450,000 in 2100, an increase of more than 1,000%.
Also read On the island of Sein, birds of prey launched against rabbits to prevent erosion
But this acceleration of erosion should not fairly affect the entire territory. Some departments are more exposed in the medium term but fare better in the long term. This is the case of Haute-Corse and Corse-du-Sud which are among the most affected in the 2050 scenario with nearly 1,000 homes threatened but “only” 3,000 in 2,100.
According to Benoît Ronez, communications director of Cerema, “this is explained by the specific geography of the island of beauty which has few low-lying areas. Conversely, the Nord and Pas-de-Calais are very exposed in the 2100 scenario because part of these departments are located below sea level.
Thanks to our simulator, discover the departments most impacted by erosion according to the 2050 and 2100 scenarios.
For researchers, these territorial disparities must push the State and communities to think about solutions at the local scale. In his televised intervention, Christophe Béchu indicated that his services had identified 500 municipalities particularly threatened by the progression of the oceans. “We have started working with the mayors most concerned to put in place tailor-made plans,” he assured.