As of: April 7, 2024, 9:38 a.m
By: Ulrike Hagen
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Natural disasters and weather extremes are increasing. Experts warn of further rising prices and a food crisis that we are not prepared for.
Frankfurt – The prices for foods such as olive oil, cocoa and oranges are reaching absurd levels. Experts are now warning in new studies that this is just the beginning. Extreme weather events as a result of climate changes are increasingly leading to crop failures, which further drives up prices. The EU is already preparing for potential food crises from climate change and other threats. In a stress test in Brussels, various scenarios that could come our way were run through.
Natural disasters and droughts, like here in southern Spain, are becoming more frequent. This is also noticeable with rising food prices. © Felipe Passolas/dpa
EU committee prepares for food crises in stress test project
Empty shelves and panic buying have traumatized us during the Corona pandemic. Sold-out pasta and astronomical prices for cooking oil became symbols of a solid food crisis. Today, the ever-increasing prices of olive oil, sugar, coffee and cocoa indicate that the times of carefree and affordable food abundance could finally be coming to an end in Europe - as it has long been in other countries.
Natural disasters and weather extremes are increasing. This is also noticeable with rising food prices. The climate crisis is becoming a food crisis. © Federal Statistical Office/Federal Consumer Organization
Crop failures, floods, droughts: climate crisis is driving up food prices
There is much to suggest that olive oil that is twice as expensive, orange juice that is up to 66 percent more expensive, and cocoa that costs 40 percent more will not be the end of the road. More and more often, it is the effects of climate change for which Europe is inadequately prepared - and which lead to crop failures: the drying out of the soil prevents the growth of grain, floods threaten entire areas of land, and fires destroy crops and arable land. The increased heat waves, which lead to excessive droughts, are already endangering 70 wine-growing regions in the world.
“We estimate that the hot summer of 2022 increased food inflation by 0.6 percentage points. Warming predicted for 2035 would increase impacts by 50 percent.”
Maximilian Kotz, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
New study shows: Inflation increases with temperatures - by up to 3.2 percent annually
Rising temperatures could drive food inflation by 3.2 percentage points annually until 2035, according to a new study published in the journal
nature
by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the European Central Bank (ECB). What the study also shows: Inflation increases with temperatures - and most strongly in summer and in hot regions at lower latitudes, for example in the global south.
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Researchers warn: Climate change is an important economic factor for price stability
“Based on our results, we estimate that the extremely hot summer of 2022 increased food inflation in Europe by around 0.6 percentage points. The future warming predicted for 2035 would increase the effects of such extremes by 50 percent,” explains Maximilian Kotz, PIK researcher and lead author of the study. This makes climate change an important economic factor for price stability.
“Climate change is a key price driver”: Climate economists explain price shocks in supermarkets
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert, climate economist and head of the Energy, Transport and Environment Department at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), tells fr.de from IPPEN.MEDIA: “Climate change is a key driver for prices and future food crises.” Success Failure to contain it and better adapt agriculture to climate change will have serious consequences for prices at the supermarket checkout, but above all for our lives.
EU committee prepares for food crises in stress test project
The “Food Alert” project in Brussels looked at a wide variety of scenarios that trigger food crises - including dramatic climate changes. How big is the risk that the shelves will remain empty, that replenishments will only be able to be delivered in smaller quantities for weeks or that supplies will not be available at all? In addition to an escalating military conflict, what situations could lead to starvation in Europe?
This theme was the focus of the two-day meeting of 60 European Union (EU) and government officials, food security experts, industry representatives and journalists. Conclusion: Few European governments are prepared for a serious supply crisis.
The participants jointly simulated the image of a severe food crisis triggered by global scenarios. This included, for example, Indonesia stopping palm oil deliveries to Europe. Or that the El Niño and La Niña weather phenomena are destroying the soybean harvest in Latin America, while China is buying up everything in the hunt for crops and farmers in Russia and Ukraine continue to fight in the war.
The report concludes that urgent policy action at EU level is needed for effective short-term crisis preparedness and response coordination, as well as longer-term crisis prevention, reports the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT), a European Union body.
“Crises will become faster and harder”: Food policy expert calls for political measures
Chris Hegadorn, lead organizer of Food Alert, said few European governments were prepared for possible food crises. “We have been living in a crisis for the past three years,” said the associate professor of global food policy at SciencesPo in Paris. “There is still a lot to do at all levels. The crises will become faster and harder.”
The scientific director of the Center for Systems Solutions, responsible for technical scenario development, Piotr Magnuszewski warned: “Our current food system is very vulnerable to external shocks. One of EIT Food’s core missions focuses on the need to improve food security by enabling and building resilient food supply chains.”
In April, the Food Alert group will present its findings to the European Mechanism for Preparedness and Response to Food Security Crises (EFSCM). One thing is already clear: the current price increases for food are probably just the beginning. Consumers should prepare for further challenges.