Starting signal. Two months before the European elections, the campaign is gradually gaining in intensity. If each contender still has around sixty days to convince voters to put their ballot in the box on June 9, everyone already has their eyes fixed on opinion studies - the true cornerstones of any electoral period. To follow the evolution of the balance of power more closely,
Le Figaro
, with LCI and Sud Radio, in partnership with Ifop-Fiducial, will publish on its site, from Monday April 8, at 5 p.m., and until June 7, a series of daily surveys on the voting intentions of the French.
What polling institutes call a “rolling” – “Euro-Rolling 2024”, in this case – are “sliding” or even “rolling” studies over several days. In order to complete the system, Frédéric Dabi, general director of opinion at Ifop, and Jérôme Fourquet, political scientist and director of the opinion and business strategies department of the same group, will come in turn to comment on the poll fluctuations every Monday at 5 p.m. hours in the Figaro show “Points de vue”.
Although Ifop may have been the first institute to disseminate this type of study, in 2012, the mystery hangs over their manufacturing secrets for a large majority of French people. Each poll, in concrete terms, will be composed of a sample of 1,500 people aged 18 and over, from which those who are registered on the electoral lists will be isolated. Panel which will then be renewed by third parties. Once the first wave is published,
“the interviews carried out on D - 3 will be replaced by those carried out on D - 1”
, argues Frédéric Dabi. Before giving a little more explicit instructions:
“For Monday's survey, there will be 500 interviews carried out from Thursday to Friday, 500 additional from Friday to Saturday, and 500 others from Saturday evening to Monday morning. For that of Tuesday, the furthest third will be deleted and replaced.
It should be noted that in the last two weeks, Ifop will no longer do 500 but 1,000 interviews per day. In total, 35,000 to 40,000 people will be contacted over the entire survey period. With several benefits compared to conventional surveys.
A more faithful method
For the opinion expert, rolling contributes above all to
“avoiding fluctuations in voting intentions between two surveys from the same institute”
. As the poll is daily, the fallout from the news, barring an exceptional event, does not arise abruptly. The method also more faithfully reproduces the electoral upheavals over the weeks.
“A classic voting intention barometer can be seen as a succession of photographs. A rolling film constitutes a campaign film
, explains Frédéric Dabi.
This makes it possible to limit the “race of the horses” effect and to follow the evolution of voters, gentle on a daily basis, over the very long term.”
And Louise Jussian, research manager at Ifop, completes this analysis:
“Rolling has an evolutionary side, it is as useful in real time as at the end of the campaign, where we can go and look for information. 'history of dynamics or possible crossings of curves.'
While the surges and setbacks will be tiny day after day, what other indicators can we trust? The rolling will, among other things, give pride of place to the participation rate, the profile of voters or even the sanction vote against the executive. But if these items are relevant, they
“must be taken with a pinch of salt
,” warns Louise Jussian. It is
“still too early”
to make predictions.