As of: April 7, 2024, 7:02 p.m
By: Tadhg Nagel
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How do Ukraine's allies plan to end the war? The country soon sees a plan in NATO - but only against the ceding of territories.
Brussels - The possibility of giving up Ukrainian territories under Russian control in exchange for the country's security is an idea that has not yet been officially discussed. However, it could be that this has been discussed behind closed doors for some time. If US President Joe Biden is not re-elected, such an agreement could even be considered likely by some.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made it clear on Thursday (April 4) in Brussels: “Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Our goal at the summit is to build a bridge to this membership.” He further emphasized that support for Ukraine among the alliance’s member states is “rock solid.” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made a similar statement: “The allies have made it clear that Ukraine will become a member of NATO and we must ensure that this is something we comply with.”
NATO fears of Trump's election victory
Some, such as the US news portal
Politico
, see these statements as merely a repetition of lukewarm promises from the previous year. However, others suspect more to it. According to the Italian newspaper
La Repubblica
, it is no coincidence that Blinken and Stoltenberg are making such statements right now. The newspaper suspects that this could be an indication of a new strategy to end the war in Ukraine. This could consist of giving up Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia in return for security guarantees and the country's immediate accession to NATO.
Soon in the alliance? NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg (r.) and Ukrainian President Zelenskyj. (Archive photo) © UPI Photo/Imago Images
Such a deal is “viewed by many experts as one of the possible solutions to ending the war.” Although this option is not currently being discussed politically, it is de facto on the table. Another, more concrete point is the fear of a Trump election victory and its consequences. Trump has repeatedly assured that if he returns as “commander in chief,” he will quickly resolve the conflict between Moscow and Kiev. According to
La Repubblica,
a territory swap could be the appropriate move to be remembered as the one who made peace possible.
According to the newspaper, such a plan could include handing over all occupied territories - Crimea and the other four regions captured in recent years - to the Kremlin. The remaining part of Ukraine would then be admitted to NATO. In a final step, the new NATO eastern border would be fortified and upgraded. Although such a request from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was rejected at the summit in Vilnius a year ago in order to prevent a direct war with Moscow, the scenario could now change; especially if Trump moves back into the White House.
Ukraine soon in NATO? All member states would have to agree to join
However, such negotiations are unlikely to take place before the US presidential election. According to
La Repubblica
, everyone involved in the Ukraine war is
aware that 2025 will be the year of negotiations, while 2024 will still be spent on the battlefield. Vladimir Putin will therefore try to conquer as much territory as possible in order to be able to enter such negotiations in a stronger position. It is crucial that Ukraine loses as few territories as possible this year. This requires accelerating and increasing Western aid to Kiev.
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NATO membership for Ukraine would be possible in principle if all NATO members agreed - at least as long as such a step increases “security and stability throughout Europe,” as NATO says. But opinions on this differ. Joshua Shifrinson, a professor of international politics who works for the US think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, fears that such a move could “further inflame Russian nationalism and imperialism.” The NATO expansions were partly responsible for these currents within the country; Further NATO expansion to include Ukraine promises to “exacerbate the situation,” said Shifrinson.
Another reason against such a plan proposed by
La Repubblica
is Ukraine itself. Kiev continues to demand the return of all territories that Russia has illegally annexed and conquered since 2014, as well as financial compensation from Moscow - without any trace of willingness to negotiate. The people in the country also first have to be prepared to engage in such barter. According to a December poll, the proportion of Ukrainians willing to make territorial concessions to Russia in return for peace has almost doubled in the last seven months - although that was still only 19 percent of respondents. (tpn)
Editor Tadhg Nagel wrote this article. Editor Lukas Rogalla then used an AI language model for optimization at his own discretion. All information has been carefully checked.
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