Javier Milei has passed his first hundred days in office. A symbolic period that is granted to any administration for its organization and the transmission of guidelines to society in order to generate medium and long-term horizons. As in almost all areas of conventional politics, that reference does not seem applicable to the libertarian president either.
The great unknowns of Argentina have not been resolved
. It is also unclear how the ruling party will navigate its path, at least until the legislative elections of 2025 when it could try a reconfiguration of parliamentary power.
Milei has used
four cards in this first stage to not give up the initiative that he unquestionably retains
. Aggressive communication through social networks. The prolongation of the electoral campaign by placing “caste” as the axis of all misfortunes. The effort to balance the accounts and achieve a reduction in inflation. The reform of a State that was not planned and is carried out bit by bit.
It is so evident that even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommended improving its quality.
With those resources, not at all sophisticated, you would be achieving two things.
Maintain the support of the citizens (56%)
that catapulted him into the runoff. Keep perplexed an opposition, intransigent or collaborationist, that cannot overcome the psychosis produced in them by the defeat at the hands of a leader who in two years went from television to the top of power.
That perplexity has multiple manifestations. The layoffs in the State are resisted by unions and activists in the face of a still striking social indifference. The General Confederation of Labor (CGT) hesitates before launching its second measure of force in a hundred days. He has only been able to define that he will organize a large mobilization for May 1. Holiday. The strike remains to be seen: the necessary effervescence is not gathered to carry out a measure of force that could exceed that of January 24.
An interpellation constantly hovers above that helps explain the opposition's disorientation.
What if Milei ends up doing well?
, they comment with each other. Enough for the majority to protect themselves with cautious behavior. The issue would be to be able to decipher what platform that alleged success could be anchored on. The Government and the opposition agree on a similar diagnosis: the decline in inflation would consolidate the President's popular base.
In any case, the differences arise around the cost that society would be willing to pay for that benefit. Milei continues to trust in the motto that she has repeated since she took office. She would be executing, she claims, what she repeatedly promised in the campaign. Part of Kirchnerism – just that – and the left lean towards chaotic derivations. The rest is responsible for reviewing experiences that have happened during the years of democracy.
The identification of libertarians with Menemism is not a secret to anyone. Ramiro Marra, the Buenos Aires legislator, days ago paid a public tribute to personalities from the 90s. This process demonstrated, to the surprise of many, that liberal reforms can also be surrounded by popularity. The victory against inflation achieved by Carlos Menem and Domingo Cavallo, at the cost of a gradual deterioration of the productive system, guaranteed a decade of power. In the middle, the victory of reelection stood out with 50% of the votes, avoiding the runoff, when unemployment already reached 19%. To this panorama we could add another fact that Argentina began to incubate after the 2001 crisis:
the increase in structural poverty
with which our society became accustomed to living. Background that justifies the doubts of the opposition majority to make a definitive forecast about the future of Milei.
The inflationary decline would represent an important scale for the libertarian president. Tied to a fiscal balance that could be complicated by the context. The adjustment is beginning to leave deep consequences. According to a work by the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (IARAF),
March collection has been the lowest in the last nine years. The generalized recession is making itself felt.
After the initial months, Milei
would already be entering the second half of his administration
. That period that Mauricio Macri had imagined for a second government of Together for Change that did not happen. Months are coming with rate adjustments that have been postponed. Gas, for example, will have an average increase of 350% for full rate users and 150% for those who receive subsidies. The epilogue would also come for the
strong liquefaction of salaries and retirements that has occurred since December.
Joint ventures will be activated and the Government promised to implement a compensation formula for the passive class tied to inflation.
The economy will need at least two policy principles so that all the effort is not in vain.
Order and management first
. The vectors of governance and institutional functioning that cannot depend solely on presidential personalism.
Nineteen officials have entered and left since December.
One of the last was the Undersecretary of Labor, Mariana Hortal Sueldo, linked to the Macrista forces of Jorge Triaca. They say she deserted of her own free will. Other voices claim that the Chief of Staff, Nicolás Posse,
would have discovered that he was negotiating with state unions in the midst of last week's layoffs.
The problem would not only be this instability in the team of officials. There are striking inefficiencies. Argentina is going through
the worst dengue epidemic with the exasperating inaction of the Minister of Health, Mario Russo.
There is enormous confusion about the possibility of using vaccines. A prevention campaign against the outbreak appeared late and poorly. It was necessary to appeal to the opening of imports because the mileista market
did not resolve the shortage of repellents
. Austerity is very good, but emergencies require different knowledge, another imagination and, above all, a different public presence. Also blaming “the caste” for such shortcomings, as Russo did,
sounded too mocking.
The other core issue is linked to governance. Concern that, amid a sea of praise for the adjustment, the IMF reiterated. Milei said his biggest mistake so far would have been to negotiate frankly with the governors. He did it within hours of the meeting that Guillermo Francos and Posse held with the leaders of Together for Change. It is impossible to dilute distrust in this way in the transition towards the May Pact.
There is an intention among the leaders that the new Base Law be sanctioned
. Although the differences on Income Tax are not settled. Nor is another topic about which much less is said. The delegation of powers. “The difficulty is not the object, it is above all the subject,” said one of the provincial leaders.
The crux of that manifest prevention would be the
President's intrepid overacting
. “Once he has special powers, who will stop him?” that same interlocutor asked himself. The doubt would also apply to international relations. Milei has made clear her strategic alliance with the United States (“whether they are Democrats or Republicans,” he specified) but would have difficulty calibrating her gestures on a plane that always requires finesse and precision. Especially for a peripheral and vulnerable nation like Argentina.
Washington has expressed concern about the space base that China has set up in Neuquén. A provincial agreement that Cristina Fernández converted into a national agreement in 2014. Concession for 50 years with benefits still unknown for our country. Unless they are part of a combo. The Asian giant is the second most important trading partner. In times of crisis, it provided two financial assistance to the Central Bank, through a swap and a subsequent extension. There are no clues about the conditions under which that money was transferred. About US$8 billion. They must be returned at some point.
The Government let it be known that it would request an inspection of that base in China. Fear about its possible economic and financial consequences. Milei traveled six hours by plane to meet in Ushuaia with the general of the US Southern Command, Laura Richardson. She announced her determination to accelerate the construction of a US naval base in that territory. As a way to consolidate the bilateral alliance and strengthen sovereign claims in the Malvinas and Antarctica.
In this course, the President seemed to
overlook two sensitive aspects.
He highlighted the importance of a military partnership with the United States amid the Falklands sovereign claim. Discomfort for Washington and a signal that Great Britain would take aim. He also made an accusation in a campaign tone against “the caste” for the alleged lack of progress in diplomatic negotiations. He mentioned the uselessness of it in international forums. The greatest advance, still never surpassed, occurred with UN resolution 2065 during the radical government of Arturo Illia. The war and the defeat of 1982 represented, on that level, a strong setback. Recognition that only Foreign Minister Diana Mondino knew how to make.
The defense of sovereignty marked Milei's messages throughout the week. In parallel, there were reports of
British military exercises in the archipelago
, the construction of a large-scale port in Stanley or the navigation in Argentine waters of an English icebreaker flying the Malvinas flag.
That was never talked about.