The Basque elections will not be worthy of review and celebration by the Spanish right and by the national formations to the left of the PSOE. On Sunday, April 21, once the polls are opened and the result is known, the only aspiration of the PP, Vox, Sumar and Podemos is that the night ends soon and the focus focuses exclusively on what PNV and EH obtain Bildu, now equal in the electoral race, to see which of the two has reached the finish line first. This is not a competition in which the right and the left of the left have any chance of gaining any prominence, but rather they will have to settle for the role of commentators. This is the reality that the surveys show today. The bet of all of them lies in the Catalan elections of May 12 and in the European elections that will be held three weeks later.
The certain restraint in the national brawl that has marked the beginning of the campaign in Euskadi is given, according to leaders of different parties, naturally, by the attitude of the Basque political leaders themselves. A campaign with new candidates, very unknown to voters, so the brand is what counts. Another singularity was revealed last week by the 40dB demographic study. for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER: the territorial issue is very far from the main concerns of the Basques. Not even among EH Bildu voters. Health and public services monopolize their efforts. The overwhelming nationalist and pro-independence majority that will emerge from the polls is not trivial, however.
The persistent will of the PNV to form a government with the PSE, and the latter's to facilitate it, as a strategic project of both, completely undermines one of the central lines of attack of the opposition against the President of the Government. “President, you tell him or I say it: we are not going to agree with Bildu.” This rhetorical question from the socialist candidate, Eneko Andueza, to Pedro Sánchez, sitting in the front row at the opening of the electoral campaign last weekend in Vitoria, probably plugs all the loopholes of the PP's national discourse on a hypothetical alliance of the socialists with the formation of Arnaldo Otegi, even in the event that the pro-independence
nationalist
left won the elections, according to federal and Basque socialist sources.
If the substantial—for the right-wing discourse—line of pacts with EH Bildu in the Basque Country fails, that of Catalonia does not weaken, for the good of the PP's strategy. The policy of “concord” carried out by the central government is a strong hold that the PP will not let go of in these 15 days of the Basque campaign nor, in a row, until the Catalan elections on May 12. This Monday, the Popular Party will see its wish fulfilled by holding a monographic session on the amnesty in the Senate by virtue of its absolute majority in the Upper House, which allows them to convene all the sessions they wish, as well as establish commissions and disapprove ministers. What they cannot do is make their calls mandatory. The regional presidents of the PSOE will not attend. The one from the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, from ERC, will intervene, more to address Junts than to the socialists, although his speech will not be pleasant for the Government.
The Catalan elections, and later the European elections, are of the utmost importance for the PP, Vox, Sumar and Podemos. At 40dB barometer. of the month of April, published this Monday by EL PAÍS and Cadena SER, the rise of the PP to 35.5%, almost two and a half points more than its result in the general elections on July 23, can support the orientation of his opposition. Little content of the socioeconomic reality, blurred positions on controversial issues, national or international, and all the criticism of the policies in Catalonia and the corruption surrounding the
Koldo case.
The PSOE, in this same study, loses about two points in relation to the July elections. Sumar's marked decline must be qualified by having included Podemos for the first time, differentiated from the force led by Yolanda Díaz. Division penalizes and they will be divided in Catalonia and in the European elections.
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