The race in battle mirrors the race in logistics: Russia and Ukraine are currently using up the world's supply of artillery shells.
Tallinn – “We are talking about the year 2027?” asks the
Tagesschau
. “Yes,” says Rafael Loss about the supposed dispatch of the first artillery shell from the newly built Rheinmetall factory in Unterlüss, Lower Saxony, to the Ukrainian war. The scientist from the
European Council on Foreign Relations
think tank in Berlin
suspects that Ukraine will have to spend another three years.
Although the Estonian daily newspaper
Postimees
now reports a silver lining on the horizon: Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur announced that he would invest between 50 and 150 million euros in ammunition for Ukraine as soon as possible.
Estonia wants to buy grenades for Ukraine
The Estonian government had already announced its willingness to buy grenades in March, thereby adding another voice to the choir of small supporters: Iceland and Slovenia are also taking part in the Czech initiative to purchase artillery ammunition for Ukraine from third countries, such as
Radio Prague
Reported
internationally
. According to Icelandic Foreign Minister Bjarni Benediktsson, his country wants to contribute around two million euros to the project. The Slovenian government has not yet announced any amount. The Czech Republic recently moved forward with plans to procure up to a million grenades from third countries for Ukraine.
“We have the opportunity to buy grenades for Ukraine, including in large quantities and quickly. Mainly from non-European countries, but there are also some in Europe.”
Estonia's Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur in the Postimees newspaper
“If we combine the EU's one million grenades, the Czech initiative, our purchasing capacities and also the British options, I dare say that it would be possible to send Ukraine two to 2.5 million grenades this year,” he said Pevkur versus
Postimees
. “We have the opportunity to buy grenades for Ukraine, including in large quantities and quickly. Mainly from non-European countries, but there are also some in Europe.” Ammunition for the Ukrainian army worth around two to three billion euros could be purchased if the allies provided funds for this, said Pevkur.
Ukrainian counteroffensive: 4,000 to 7,000 grenades – per day
800,000 rounds of artillery ammunition are expected to come from the Czech Republic alone – “that is more than the whole of Europe produced in 2023,” writes the
Neue Zürcher Zeitung
. The announcement by Czech President Petr Pavel that his country would organize such a delivery within a few weeks and transport it to Ukraine is causing a stir. According to
NZZ
, the Ukrainians fired 4,000 to 7,000 grenades per day during their counteroffensive in the summer of 2023 alone. With 2.5 million additional grenades and rockets by the end of 2024, the Ukrainians could cover their own ammunition supplies, claims Pevkur; For more than a year now, the Ukrainians have been able to fire back as intensively as the Russians attack. Ukraine is currently said to have reduced its defensive fire by more than two-thirds of its original intensity.
Pevkur said the new grenades had the 155-millimeter caliber of the NATO standard as well as the 152-millimeter caliber of the former Soviet standard. This will be supplemented by BM-21 Grad missiles, which suggests that the Estonians are partly targeting countries in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, as
Forbes
magazine suspects. African countries could also be candidates. The Czech initiative reportedly sources ammunition from South Korea, South Africa and Turkey. Pevkur wants to keep the sources of the delivery secret. “Mostly from non-European countries,” he told
Postimees
, “but there are also some in Europe.”
Logistics race: Russia needs the same grenades as Ukraine
Ammunition shortages largely led to the withdrawal of the Ukrainian garrison from the eastern city of Avdiivka after five months of resistance until mid-February. Since the Russians wanted to take advantage of the Ukrainians' lack of ammunition, they then advanced further west of Avdiivka. But the sustained attacks coincided with the launch of the Czech artillery initiative. “Confident that more shells would arrive, Ukrainian gunners apparently resorted to their emergency ammunition reserves - and increased their rate of fire,” writes
Forbes , quoting
Frontelligence Insight
analysts
: “This improvement has allowed Ukraine to compensate for the loss “To prevent important defensive positions in the east and to slow down further Russian advances.”
“The need for artillery shells so that Ukraine can go back on the offensive is around 5,000 to 6,000 rounds per day,” says scientist Loss in the
Tagesschau
. Ammunition for the old Soviet guns in particular is becoming increasingly scarce globally, he says: 152 millimeter caliber bullets or the smaller 122 millimeter caliber shells are only available in limited quantities internationally, and the countries that make this ammunition available also have to do so get a replacement for yourself. “The only supplier would then be Russia in many cases. And Russia itself is on the world markets to replenish its own stocks on the one hand and to buy ammunition from under Ukraine's nose on the other.”
(kahi)