The trust of the middle class in the established parties is no longer far off. A study got to the bottom of the phenomenon.
Munich – The established parties of the traffic light coalition and the Union are increasingly losing the trust of the middle of society. This is the result of a study by the Bertelsmann Foundation. This is mainly because, on the one hand, people with middle incomes feel a great deal of pressure to change, but on the other hand they do not have the impression that the traffic light coalition is setting the right course for this.
The CDU also does not benefit from traffic light skepticism
According to the authors of the study, the fact that the CDU/CSU have so far only benefited to a limited extent from this traffic light skepticism in voter surveys means that trust in the traditional parties is generally dwindling in these milieus. “Many people, especially from socially weaker backgrounds and the middle, no longer feel adequately represented by the Bonn democratic parties,” say the authors. The authors were aware that populist parties like the AfD could be the beneficiaries. Such a move could “in extreme cases lead to partial damage or increasing dysfunctionality of the parliamentary system of government.”
According to the study authors, Union and Ampel should work better together instead of blocking each other. In the upcoming negotiations on the 2025 budget there is “perhaps the last chance to achieve a turnaround in the middle in time”.
Middle class people in Germany feel as if their concerns are not being seen
According to the study authors Robert Vehrkamp and Silke Borgstedt, neither the SPD, the Greens and the FDP nor the Union are currently succeeding in “leaving the impression of empathy, problem-solving ability and responsiveness in the middle in order to immunize their electorate against populist seduction and mobilization.” The basis of the The analysis is four representative surveys between September 2021 and the end of February 2024.
The people described by the researchers as a “nostalgic middle class” feel pressured by constant appeals for change. They tried to defend familiar rules against “perceived unreasonable demands of the ecological zeitgeist”. But the “adaptive-pragmatic” middle, which is willing to change, is also dissatisfied because “the innovation backlog, the stuck digitalization, the sprawling bureaucracy” and the shortage of skilled workers are causing them problems. Both milieus involve a search for harmony, predictability and security of prosperity, as well as the perception that one's own concerns are not being seen.
According to the study, the majority of “nostalgic middle-class people” vote for the AfD
The next federal election will take place in autumn 2025. According to the study, the two different middle milieus support the traffic light parties to varying degrees. As of the end of February, only 17 percent of the “Nostalgic Bourgeois” supported the traffic light parties. 28 percent would vote for the CDU and CSU, 34 percent for the AfD and 9 percent for Sahra Wagenknecht's new party (BSW).
The situation is different with the “adaptive-pragmatic middle” that is willing to change. Here the traffic light would come to 26 percent, the Union to 30 percent, and the AfD to 27 percent. The BSW would only get four percent here if there were a federal election now. Recent polls showed the Union at 30 percent. According to surveys, there is currently no way around a Union government.
In an online survey by the Bertelsmann study in January 2024, 56 percent of the German population from the middle of society said they were rather optimistic about the future, which means a decline of ten percent. In May 2022, 66 percent of those surveyed expressed optimism. The current level of life satisfaction in the middle is still quite high.
73 percent of the middle class wants to take on more debt to relieve the burden on children
According to the study, people with middle incomes would find it okay to take on more debt. However, only on the condition that this money would be used for future-oriented investments such as schools, local public transport or better climate protection. This is not a general vote for easing the debt brake.
According to the data, 73 percent of those surveyed agreed that it is better to borrow money today so as not to leave the young generation with broken schools, broken roads and a broken environment. Only 27 percent of participants in the survey last February supported the statement that leaving the children with as little national debt as possible was more important.
(cgsc with dpa)