Luis Caputo expects that this Friday the INDEC will announce that inflation has slowed down. He experiences it as a triumph, in the midst of the criticism he receives because
he does not have an economic plan and only a financial package
. That - and no other - is the real problem with the IMF. In Washington they want to help him, but they demand that he present a
coherent medium-term plan
. Prices “deflated”, but remain at an unsustainable level:
it is taking a toll on salaries and pensions
.
In Economy they say that March inflation would be around 10%. They are no longer guided by the networks: it was a mistake for Toto - and later Javier Milei - to make predictions using a trick bot. The “jumbobot” transcended the professorship and the borders. Caputo was the one who discovered the account. The minister became a “tweeter” and also overreacts with each result.
Toto, since he took office, exaggerates his devotion to Milei and the President returns that gesture with support. He could not yet enter the inner circle of the libertarian, but
he accumulates greater and greater power
. Marco Lavagna's latest projections predicted the following: below 13 and above 10%. The latest INDEC cut places inflation between 11.2 and 12.2%.
This was announced by Guillermo Francos in the Casa Rosada. It was at the meeting with the CGT. The Minister of the Interior said: "March ends above 10.5%." But he euphorically predicted that "inflation in April will be 7% and in a few months we will be below 5%." Santiago Caputo nodded. He assured that
inflation "is collapsing
. "
It happened when they were talking about joint ventures. Francos made him a promise: “We are not going to put our foot down on the joint ventures.”
The Fat People distrust. The response was a strike for May 9. Because the experienced Julio Cordera told them, privately, something different. The Secretary of Labor had meetings with several emissaries. Cordera was sincere: “We are going to try to kick everything for two months. "Let's go cycling." That's why Hugo Moyano went to the Casa Rosada. The truck driver had a secret meeting alone with Francos and Caputo. Hector Daer was also there.
Moyano threw the meat on the grill. “I warn you that if you do not approve, I will stop the country,” he said confidently. For Toto the salary cap is key.
Caputo uses three controls to restrain prices and all of them deepen the recession
. The World Bank projects an economic decline of 2.8%. The three anchors are powerful:
the exchange rate delay; the salary cap and the “puncture” on circulating money
.
The trio of measures explains the abrupt drop in prices. But
it does not eliminate inflation, it only represses it
over time.
The fight with prepaid
That generated anger with prepaid companies. Unusual, it was the Government that opened the door for the increase. And now Caputo is angry. The market structure is identical to that of December. The problem was that the measure was
a blow to the middle class
, Milei voters.
The President endorsed a tweet with insults against Claudio Belocopitt. Thus, Milei gave presidential status to a statement by an unknown “termo.” He would be a troll of the official army. Privately,
Milei accuses him of having supported Sergio Massa and seeks to blame him for the adjustment
. In Olivos, Milei screamed and said that Belocopitt “was the one who organized the increases.” The topic has obsessed him since the beginning of February. At that moment, Milei reprimanded his Chief of Staff: “Nicolás, this is rubbish.”
Belocopitt - privately - is furious. He says that he is being used as a “scapegoat” and that the minister brought up the issue to ingratiate himself with Milei and try to keep people from talking about the high rates. He is unfindable and his intimates swore that he will speak when things are clarified because he does not want to escalate the conflict. Privately he states: “I also want inflation to go down.” Mario Lugones - his closest enemy - would be the one who spearheads the offensive against prepaid companies. Lugones is a virtual shadow Minister of Health. He formally occupies a place as an advisor to the Chief of Staff. He has a lot of influence: his son Rodrigo
works side by side with Santi Caputo in Milei's media plans
.
Lugones opened informal channels with the bosses of the Argentine Health Union. So he told them: “If you want us to stop the attack,
you have to stop increasing for a two-month period
.” At the UAS they maintain silence. They say that the Headquarters does not know numbers and does not consider a central issue: the cost inflation that Casa Rosada itself causes - with the high rates for services.
Milei's journey and the LLA intern
Milei was focused on his tour. She showed off her unusual devotion to Elon Musk.
Before traveling he had a meeting with a member of the Court. In the span of an hour she mentioned the controversial mega businessman three times. Milei dreams that Musk will support his idea of
leading a “libertarian international
. ”
First he has to solve more domestic problems. The “pathetic” fight in La Libertad Avanza opened a furrow in Congress. In the “dialogue” blocs, mistrust has returned and everyone is asking questions about how the approval of the Omnibus Law will affect. The weak ruling bloc is subject to its own abuse and furious fights.
Cristian Ritondo and Miguel Pichetto also doubt one issue: whether the commitments assumed by Francos and Posse are going to be implemented. Both believe that
the management of the Casa Rosada is deplorable
and Milei's own bad mood adds a lot of instability. Karina Milei was stunning on Wednesday. She was the first to speak from Miami with Martín Menem: “Throw her out, I don't want that one.” “That” was Marcela Pagano. The representative, until Thursday night, was planning to resist her position on the Impeachment Commission. She has already been appointed and Kirchnerism is on the lookout for another session.
Menem acted brutally, urged to please Karina. He tried to abort the meeting and cut off the television. Oscar Zago shot him straight: “You are ignorant and a fool.” Pagano had Milei's approval. The President blessed her and sent her hearts on Saturday to her private WhatsApp chat, congratulating her on her position. But Karina distrusts him. Everything indicates that the friction - incredible - was between Milei and Karina, the society of power.
The "Boss" disavowed the President's decision to support Pagano
. Milei explained the situation like this: "It was a mistake, a lack of intelligence that was not properly handled."
Toto Caputo travels to the US with an obsession: to soften the IMF so that it opens its hand and approves a loan. Rodrigo Valdés and his bureaucrats want to support Argentina. For that, they already told Caputo that they want a stabilization plan, because they say that Caputo still does not have a serious program.
It has also made the decision not to approve funds to dollarize, much less to finance an eventual exchange rate run. In addition,
they demand a devaluation from Caputo
. Conclusion: the IMF could only lend US$5 billion now. They are not enough for Caputo. In November he promised Milei that he would get US$30,000.
It's a “top secret”: Toto is going to explore a loan from private banks. On Wall Street there is euphoria about Milei. In the White House they are cautious. Michael Kaplan spoke at a private Treasury meeting. He was Biden's advisor for Latin America. The Undersecretary of the Treasury stated: “I open the hood of the car and what I see is terrifying.”