Iran has launched dozens of drones against Israel, which will take several hours to arrive, Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari announced late this Saturday. Iran's Revolutionary Guard has confirmed the attack and indicated that it also included cruise missiles. It is an unprecedented action and the announced retaliation by Tehran for the murder of seven of its military commanders last day 1 in Damascus. The military spokesman recalled that he has activated defensive systems to intercept drones and missiles and that the population must remain in shelters if they hear anti-aircraft alerts. The Israeli Armed Forces are on full alert, they have mobilized dozens of planes and decreed the modification of the instructions for the population. The measure also coincides with the reinforcement of the US military presence and the announcement by its president, Joe Biden, that he was interrupting his weekend rest on the beach to return to the White House to “consult with his national security team on events in the Middle East. Earlier in the day, Iran's Revolutionary Guard boarded a ship with 25 crew members and partially owned by an Israeli businessman in the Strait of Hormuz.
The growing tension between Israel and Iran has gone from threats to facts in a few hours. Late on Saturday, the Israeli army decreed the measure that it had been avoiding since Tehran announced that it would avenge the bombing in Damascus: the modification of the instructions for the population, with the cancellation of educational activities throughout the country and the limitation of meetings in green areas to a maximum of 1,000 people. Shortly after, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared before the nation. “In recent years, and especially in recent weeks, Israel has been preparing for a direct attack from Iran. Our defensive systems are deployed. We are prepared for any scenario, both defensively and offensively. The State of Israel is strong. His army is strong. Its population is strong”, he noted shortly before the announcement of the drone attack. “We have determined a clear principle: whoever harms us, we will harm him. “We will defend ourselves against any threat and we will do so with sensibility and determination,” he added.
The attack turns the hidden war that Israel and Iran have been fighting for years into an open conflict, despite calls in recent days for containment and the forceful “Don't [do it]” pronounced on Friday by Biden as a warning to Tehran. The day began with a measured action by Iran that, without causing injuries or directly attacking Israeli territory, gave it two advantages: it showed its ability to inflict economic damage in the Strait of Hormuz, an important maritime passage between Iran, Oman and the Emirates. United Arab Emirates, and left the doubt as to whether it would only be a first step, in an important ambiguity in the psychological war resolved hours later, shortly after neighboring Jordan also closed its airspace.
“We are closely following a planned attack by Iran and its allies against the State of Israel,” said Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, just before the measures for the population came into effect. “In recent days we have strengthened our defensive and offensive capabilities and we are determined to take all necessary measures to defend our citizens.”
Earlier in the day, members of his Revolutionary Guard boarded a cargo ship owned by a subsidiary of Zodiac Maritime, one of the main international maritime companies, according to the Iranian state news agency Irna. The company is partially owned by Eyal Ofer, an Israeli businessman whose ships have been attacked in the past. Iranian forces took the boat to their country. Mediterranean Shipping Company, the largest container shipping company that leased the ship to a subsidiary of Zodiac Maritime, the company partly owned by the Israeli businessman, said the ship has 25 crew members on board. Seventeen of them are Indians, the country's authorities said. A video broadcast by Saudi television channel Al Arabiya showed people being lowered onto the ship with a rope from a helicopter.
It was a very weak blow compared to such a provocative attack (against senior military commanders and in a consular building in another country) like the one launched by Israel. Tehran has been pointing out that it does not want a war, but neither does it want to completely let the attack pass. He would make him appear weak or cowed, which left him with a bunch of bad options. The chosen one, a direct attack, has unpredictable consequences in the Middle East. Until now, Israel mainly managed its confrontation with Iran through assassinations of nuclear scientists, cyberattacks or bombings against its forces or allies in other countries, such as Syria or Lebanon. Tehran, through its allies, such as the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, others in Iraq and Syria, the Houthis in Yemen and - although with less strong ties - Hamas, the Islamist group that launched the October 7 attack.
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After that attack, its deadliest day in 75 years of history, Israel has shown signs of wanting to transform the “security equation” (as it usually calls it) in the Middle East. It had already been stepping on the accelerator against Hezbollah, bordering on unleashing an all-out war, when it launched the bombing in Damascus two weeks ago, which significantly increased the risk of conflict. Amid differences between Netanyahu and Biden, the threat of an attack by the common Iranian enemy could drag the United States into a conflict it does not want.
After the assault on the boat this Saturday, Vali Nasr, professor of Near Eastern Studies and International Relations at Johns Hopkins University in the United States, recalled on the social network of retaliation. First, because by forcing Europe and the Gulf countries to ask for restraint, it also imposes on them “the responsibility to also stop Israel's response to the Iranian response,” which “contributes greatly to achieving Iran's objective of establishing a deterrence system with Israel.”
The head of the Revolutionary Guard naval force, Alireza Tangsiri, had already warned this Tuesday that they could close the Strait of Hormuz and that they saw Israel's presence in the United Arab Emirates as a threat. Both countries normalized relations in 2020, along with Morocco and Bahrain, within the framework of the Abraham Accords. Israeli diplomacy reacted by urging the EU to “immediately declare the Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization and sanction Iran,” because the ship had the flag of one of its member states, Portugal.
The Biden Administration's growing anger with Israel over the war in Gaza faded in recent hours, as the prospect of an attack on its closest ally in the Middle East gained strength. The interception of the ship in the strait has already returned the bilateral relationship, questioned in the Democratic ranks due to the high cost in civilian lives in the Strip, to its best moment. President Biden already warned this on Friday: no matter how much criticism he may have made of the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu – three days ago he described his management of the war as a “mistake” – in relation to the defense of Israel, all of them are closed. the rows. “We owe it to the defense of Israel,” he stressed on Friday at an event at the White House.
The unconditional support for Israel is based on the Pentagon sending more warships and planes, as reported by The
Washington Post
, which also contributes to fueling tension. “We are moving additional assets to the region to reinforce regional deterrence efforts and increase protection of US forces,” said a defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity. The moves include the repositioning of two destroyers, one of which was already in the region and another that was redirected there, according to US sources. At least one of the ships has the Aegis missile defense system.
Despite the traditional rhetorical hostility - the United States continues to be the Great Satan for the old guard of the ayatollah regime - it has measured its strength millimetrically against the American military machine. In the early months of the war between Israel and Hamas, Iranian-backed militias regularly attacked US troops in Iraq, Syria and Jordan. A drone strike killed three Americans in Jordan in January, and after US retaliation in Iraq and Syria, Tehran stopped its proxies' attacks for fear of a stronger response from the Pentagon. Reciprocally, the Democratic Administration has also made it clear that it wants to avoid a total war.
This context is what has taken oil to its highest levels in months, with more and more Western countries raising the alert level for travel to Israel and more airlines avoiding flying over the Middle East. The Dutch airline KLM announced this Saturday that it will stop flying over Israel and Iran "as a precaution", although it will maintain the route to Ben Gurion airport, near Tel Aviv, which barely involves entering Israeli territory and continues to be considered safe. Lufthansa and its subsidiary Austrian Airlines, the only two Western companies with routes to Tehran, have stopped flying over Iran these days. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands has announced the closure of its embassy in Tehran as of this Sunday.
The escalation of the conflict is the scenario that Washington wanted to avoid at all costs, in this election year in the United States, since the war began on October 7. US officials, protected by anonymity, stated on Friday that a direct attack on their country or its military forces in the region is not contemplated. Sources from the Tehran Administration also ruled it out on condition of anonymity.
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