Andrés Manuel López Obrador did not like to get involved in international politics. Or at least that's what he repeated over and over again in front of the cameras. The president of Mexico, who has rarely traveled abroad in his five years in office, avoided thorny issues in the region and even looked the other way when some abuses were perpetrated in neighboring countries. But in the last year he took an unexpected turn: he took a strong position on the political crisis in Peru—he defended former president Pedro Castillo, which earned him the designation of persona non grata by the Peruvian Congress—he showed his displeasure when the far-right Javier Milei won the Presidency of Argentina and even criticized Nayib Bukele's heavy hand in security in El Salvador. His last battle is now with the Ecuador of Daniel Noboa, who a week ago assaulted the Mexican Embassy in Quito, beat the diplomatic staff and forcibly took away former vice president Jorge Glas, convicted of corruption and political asylum from the Mexican Government. The brutal attack, massively condemned by the international community, put Latin American diplomacy in check, which this time will have to resolve its problems in the International Court of Justice.
The beginning of the crisis between Ecuador and Mexico began long before the entire world could see the head of the Mexican Foreign Ministry in Quito on the ground, struggling with the police to avoid an arrest at his Embassy. On April 5, a few hours after the López Obrador Government granted political asylum to Glas, Ecuadorian security forces had been surrounding the building for some time. But Embassies are considered a sacred place in international politics and no Mexican official in that building thought it was possible to experience what they experienced. Until a knock to break down the door alerted them. Glas had been taking refuge there since last December, and after several gestures that escalated the tension between the two countries, the Mexican delegation was waiting for a safe passage that would allow his host to take a flight to Mexico City.
What happened instead spread across screens and newscasts around the world. A dozen agents with long weapons in their hands jumped over the walls of the Embassy, broke through the door and dragged Glas away. Along the way, they threatened and pointed weapons at the Mexican diplomatic personnel who tried to stop them. “When they finally had to leave, I think that was where they hit me in the eye, because I have a mark here, because it was with a shield that reached up to my head,” Roberto Canseco, the head of the Foreign Ministry, said in disbelief this week. He had been left in front of the diplomatic mission hours before, when ambassador Raquel Serur was expelled from Ecuador.
Mexico responded with the immediate severing of bilateral relations. The attitude of the Noboa Government was quickly condemned by a large part of the countries in the region, and more timidly by others, such as the United States and Canada, which only took a stronger position after the release of the camera recordings. security that López Obrador made. The assault served as fuel for a president who dedicated his week to doing what he does best: political entertainment. And he had something to do it with. The brutal images accompanied each of his words. “Not even [Augusto] Pinochet, the fearsome Pinochet, and others, had dared to do that,” he launched on Monday.
The Mexican Foreign Minister, Alicia Bárcena, a shark of Latin American diplomacy, was in charge of defending the flag. Mexico first sought support in regional forums and international spaces. He achieved strong condemnation of Ecuador from the Organization of American States (OAS) with an overwhelming majority and the almost complete support of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac). With the support also of the European Union, the United States and Canada, he took the matter to the International Court of Justice and requested the suspension of the South American country from the United Nations, as well as the expulsion if it was proven that it violated the founding charter of the United Nations. the organization. López Obrador's Executive also accused the Noboa Administration of intercepting his communications.
In the task of seeking sanctions for Ecuador, not only Mexico has participated. Former President Rafael Correa has also done so, who has been denounced by the Minister of Labor, Ivone Núñez, for the alleged crime of treason. Correa asked the international community for retaliation against the country for the attack on the Embassy and in defense of his friend and fellow government member, Jorge Glas. The former vice president is imprisoned in the maximum security prison La Roca, in Guayaquil, where he was transferred after his capture and is on a hunger strike, according to his international team of lawyers.
Glas will stay in that prison for now. This week a court denied his defense's request for habeas corpus, arguing that his capture inside the diplomatic legation was illegal. Glas' lawyers asked that the former vice president be transferred to another embassy, but the judges denied the appeal, arguing that he has two final sentences for corruption for which he must serve an eight-year sentence, although they classified the detention "as illegal and arbitrary.”
The diplomatic crisis has detonated more externally than internally in Ecuador, a country that does not seem to rest from the political and judicial scandals that further polarize opinions in the public sphere. “Those who said that international organizations were of no use today are appealing to their authority, and those who previously raised international respect now question it and subjectify it,” says Pedro Donoso, political analyst, who describes the atmosphere after what happened. in the last week. There is no precise data on how citizens value what happened at the Mexican Embassy, but its effect has been felt in the relationship between the country's political parties.
One thing is clear, President Daniel Noboa's decision has shaken the political game in a crucial period. It is an election year, in which the president is also a candidate. Furthermore, in a few days the president will measure his power of governability in a popular consultation, with which he promises to solve the problems of insecurity, at a time when violence has increased in the country and the dead are beginning to be counted again in the dozens. despite its strategy of keeping the military in charge of street security. And that is when the country could feel “an impact that may be subtle, but important: the loss of credibility of the Ecuadorian Government,” says analyst César Febres Cordero. “Beyond the sanctions, this can make the work of the foreign service difficult at a time when Ecuador desperately needs allies to combat transnational organized crime,” he adds.
The political moment has also been crucial for Mexico, which this year has presidential elections and the lead in the polls is precisely López Obrador's successor, Claudia Sheinbaum. The candidate of the National Regeneration Movement also took advantage of Noboa's setback. “It is completely condemnable, it violates all international protocols and it is a violation of the sovereignty of our country, it has no other name,” she said at a rally this week. “In addition, we saw the despicable scenes that occurred at the Embassy and we also took the opportunity to congratulate our diplomatic corps who acted with enormous bravery,” she highlighted about some officials who these days are seen as national heroes.
The main effect of the diplomatic
impasse
in Ecuador has been felt in the Assembly, where the Correism party, the Citizen Revolution, which declared itself in permanent opposition to the Government, has lost three seats in its bloc, with which it enjoyed more power in the decision making. In the last week, three legislators disaffiliated, and could be captured by the ruling party, which when it took office only had 14 assembly members and now has 26. But even though it was a minority, it had managed to govern all this time without opposition, thanks to an agreement with the matches. This is how he managed to get Congress to approve – almost unanimously – five bills that were essential for Noboa. “The Government's game is interesting, it defeated the Citizen Revolution because it passed five laws with its votes, to finally rob its assembly members,” analyzes Donoso. Although it is difficult to determine if the conflict with Mexico triggered this, “it does show that the Government can do anything and now the codes are different,” he says.
While power relations are reorganized in the Assembly and the Ecuadorian Government tries to convince the world about its version of why it forcibly entered the Mexican Embassy, violence gains strength again in the streets. Two massacres occurred in 24 hours and left 14 people shot in Guayaquil and Durán, key cities for organized crime. Families count pennies to buy basic products that are more expensive due to the increase in VAT and speculation, and unemployment reached the highest rate in almost two years. In Ecuador the daily problems of the people continue, while outside the Mexican litigants are getting ready to bring the South American country to account before The Hague.
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