Never before has a Government depended so much on social humor
. Social networks are a thermometer that Javier Milei has decided to adopt as a trust index, in real time, in his management. But more than an innovation in terms of political communication, it is a necessity: the Government does not have the resources to carry out policies that are sustained against the current.
There have been presidents who, despite society's skepticism, implemented policies that were finally accepted.
Carlos Menem, privatizations and Convertibility
, is an example. Milei does not have that margin because it lacks consensus to approve a legislative package, it does not have an important political force to support it and it does not have its own governors. Yes,
he has built a clear story with an enemy, all those who do not support the Government, and with a blurred opposition
.
In the main offices of the Casa Rosada there is confidence, certainty and a unanimous reading that politics is atomized. To put it crudely,
there is no opponent in a position to lead today a force that has a chance of overcoming La Libertad Avanza
. They even recognize that the senator and head of the UCR, Martín Lousteau, has tried to take that position of antithesis to Milei.
“But it is very risky, especially because he is not even supported by the UCR,”
they comment. They use the cases of governors Ignacio Torres (Chubut) and Martín Llaryora (Córdoba) who sought to have more visibility, because - they affirm - they did not read that the people support the Government.
In the red-carpeted hallways and mirrored doors of Balcarce 50, there is no bustle or dozens of people wandering around like in other times. There are few voices that are heard. Some reproduce little-known thoughts of
Milei's most trusted men
, such as
Nicolás Posse, the chief of staff
who integrates one of the first rings of power around the libertarian.
Apparently, Posse interprets that there is a kind of
purification both in Peronism that encompassed sectors of the right and left, and in the late Together for Change
. This purge for the Chief of Staff, they say, will end up coming together in
two large spaces or fronts
. One from the center-right that Milei will preside over and another that does not yet have leadership but it is expected that Kirchnerism and the left will converge.
There is a conviction, for example in Deputies, that
Unión por la Patria will end up fragmenting
because no one leads and Cristina Kirchner is barely able to partially organize the Senate. They believe that the block of deputies is maintained by the appointments in the commissions, but that it will be dismantled because neither Máximo Kirchner nor Germán Martínez are considered bosses. And
the Peronist governors begin to carve
both the Deputies and the Senate, depending on their interests. Osvaldo Jaldo from Tucumán, today an official ally, is an emblematic case.
No one will say it publicly, but in the exclusive sphere that Posse, Santiago Caputo and Karina Milei make up, below the president, they interpret that
the political decline affects both Cristina and Mauricio Macri
. In the Casa Rosada they observe that every time Cristina or Macri intervene in traditional networks or media, the impact is less and the negativity about what they say grows.
Hence the merger between La Libertad Avanza and the PRO that seemed imminent a few months ago, has been put on hold. Libertarians do not believe that it is time, beyond the affinity between both forces.
“There is no urgency for an alliance
,” says an official official.
Even a sector of LLA supports the theory of some yellow referents. Being the 2025 legislative elections,
it would not be a business to join forces
but rather to present themselves as two different alternatives, trying to monopolize first and second place. That would allow them, for example, to take over the 3 national senators at stake in the City for the libertarians and Macriism. There is still too much left.
There are other nuances that distance the Government from Macrism. The
original
labor reform
chapter of the DNU, later judicialized and stopped, interfered with
the solidarity quota of the unions and with social works
. Both items, highlighted in Balcarce 50, were taken from the “new” projects presented by the PRO and the UCR.
“We expected it from the radicals but not from the PRO, they are remnants of the old politics as well. It is not ideal but at least it puts an end to the trial industry
,” they point out.
In the middle is the imminent treatment of the Bases Law, a reduction of what was the failed Omnibus Law. The actors are the same, but the difference is that now they know each other.
“Politics always played tennis, and we arrived and wanted to play badminton. They thought we were going to end up playing tennis, which we also know how to play, but no. We stuck with badminton and now they know it
,” says a Cabinet member.
The metaphor leads to another conclusion reached by the Government, after four months in office.
“Controlling
inflation and the streets
, so that there are no pickets or overflows, is enough for us to make differences in our favor with decades of failure
,” they say. In other words, if they overturn the Base Law again, Milei will take care of drawing a line to denounce those responsible -Is this how the two new political fronts will be formed?-, and will use that victimization as a campaign strategy to achieve more seats in next year's election. Like Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, who waited two years to have the power of Congress.
“The approval of the law accelerates time, but we already demonstrated that we had a Plan B
,” they boast.
For when the rebound
There is a doubt that has begun to fly through official and opposition offices. It is clear that Milei is beginning to control inflation although the 11% rate puts holes in the pockets of the middle and lower class. It has to show between now and the middle of the year, the drop in prices, the monetary issue, the rise in the Central Bank's reserves, the control of the exchange rate or the drop in country risk. But will that automatically improve the quality of life of those who see their purchasing power shrink?
The Government trusts Milei; that the recession and the price ceiling will quickly cause the value of the peso and salaries to increase. Something similar to what happened with Convertibility in the Menemist era. However, a former Economy official in times of good times maintains that for this to occur,
inflation will have to be in single digits for several months, but at the level of 2 or 3%
. “And that is still a long way off and it probably won't happen this year or the next,” he analyzes.
“It is difficult for there to be a V-shaped rebound in the second semester. Purchasing power is hit. I don't see a second semester where people feel an improvement. The decline in inflation will be accompanied by employment problems and very poor salaries,” says the economist.
They even go further and argue that the impact of the increase in grain exports - soybeans - or the development of the energy sector does not move the ammeter in productive work. Yes, however, the recovery is immediate when talking about tourism, commerce, construction or the economy of the industry. But for now they are postponed sectors that will depend on a lifting of the stocks that does not seem so close, for the arrival of investments. And at the Casa Rosada they know that.
“The thing is,
there is nothing on the other side, just decades of failure. And the most relevant thing they can build is a second general strike
in five months
,” they highlight in the ruling party.
How long will society's support for Milei last? For now it remains firm. Nobody knows for sure. Politics does not have a Plan B. And the Government is clear about that.
See also
See also
Menemista remake, ammunition for NATO? and “help” from the CGT
See also
See also
The order that Karina Milei lowered and the chronicle of the unusual fight of the libertarians