“March inflation fell to 11%
,” says the title here. And the Government celebrates: the previous month it had been 13.2.
“Inflation rose to 3.5%
,” says the title there. And the government is worried: it came from a 3.2. Here it is Argentina, obviously. That's the United States.
A necessary clarification, although also half obvious: the 11% Creole reflects the increase in prices
only in the last month
, while the 3.5% American refers to the interannual increase, the last twelve months.
That number, here,
climbs to no less than 287.9%
.
Sometimes, because we are in the middle of the dance and get used to the loud music, we lose sight of the true depth of Argentina's economic dislocation. Between a worrying 3.5% per year and a celebratory 11% per month
is the distance that separates us from a normal country
.
Despite the slowdown in recent months, Argentina continues to have the highest inflation in the world. Behind come Zimbabwe (4.9% in March), Venezuela (3.9%) and Turkey (3.4%). Our neighbors, in that sense, live in another world. Even Venezuela, with its 3.9% in March, was coming off 0.5% deflation in February.
Paraguay had 1.1%. Bolivia, 0.5%. Chile, 0.4%.
Brazil, 0.16%. Uruguay, 0.02%
.
Another fact: a family
needed $773,385 in March to not be poor.
Poverty reached 41.7% of the population in the second half of last year, according to INDEC, but it
would already exceed 50%
, at least according to a report by Martín González Rozada, an economist at the Torcuato Di Tella University. One in two Argentines is poor.
This tragedy clearly represents the severity, antiquity and depth of the economic crisis: like inflation, poverty is almost at its worst in history, but it is not new. Just look at a recent report from IDESA, a Córdoba
think tank
chaired by economist Jorge Colina, which reveals not only how much we fell but what we missed out on growing.
Because in 2006 poverty reached 27% of the population in Argentina, 25% in Uruguay and 29% in Chile. And in 2023, here it was close to 42%, in Uruguay it had been reduced to 10% and in Chile it affected only 7%.
That is to say: from 2006 to today,
here it is on track to double, while in Chile it is a quarter of what it was and in Uruguay, less than half
.
The report points out as causes the fiscal deficit, corruption, inefficiency, protectionism and the lack of tax, pension and labor reform.
He points out: “This supports the thesis that the high and chronic poverty rate in Argentina is
a derivative of bad public policies supported by broad sectors of society
(…). That a majority part of the political system has supported, or at least tolerated, these bad policies is the main difference with Uruguay and Chile. In these countries, which were governed alternately by left-wing and right-wing coalitions, much more consistent and rational public policies were maintained.”
In that sense, it is clear that the Milei administration is disruptive. Also,
its own survival is at stake
in reducing inflation and, after adjustment, poverty. Urgently, too. They voted for him for that.
If not, we will continue envying Chile and Uruguay and praying that someday it will be natural to worry because inflation rose to 3.5% annually.
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Inflation in the last year
In percentage
Source:
INDEC
Infographic:
Clarín