Iran crosses a red line with Israel to gain strength in the Middle East

The huge posters hanging from the buildings of Tehran have been a means of propaganda for the Islamic regime of Iran since 1979. This Sunday, a building in Palestine Square in the Iranian capital was covered with a huge banner showing a torn Israeli flag waving. facing a hail of missiles. “The next slap will be harder,” the sign said, in Persian and Hebrew. That message is the graphic expression of statements such as those of the Iranian Chief of Staff, Major General Mohamed Bagheri, who has threatened action “considerably more severe” than the barrage of drones and missiles at dawn this Sunday, if Israel retaliates against Iran. This soldier, the Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisí, and the members of Iran's mission to the United Nations are part of a list of officials who have stressed that their country acted in "legitimate defense." However, the attack crossed a red line; that of striking in Israeli territory. For its part, Iran believes that it is Israel that has crossed limits that it considers intolerable. As it happened, he maintains, on April 1. That day, Israeli planes bombed the Iranian Embassy compound in Syria and killed a Revolutionary Guard general, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and 15 other people.

That bombing was just the latest so far. On December 25, Israel had killed another Iranian general of the Revolutionary Guard, Razi Mousavi, by launching missiles at his home in Damascus. Three days later, 11 other members of that body, also in the Syrian capital. On January 20, the intelligence chief of the Revolutionary Guard in Syria, Brigadier General Sadegh Omidzadeh, and his deputy, as well as three of his advisors.

“When you kill a general in a diplomatic building, you take the confrontation to another level,” emphasizes Rouzbeh Parsi, head of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs think tank. When Iran tried to get the United Nations Security Council to condemn the attack, three veto-wielding permanent members of the body – the United States, the United Kingdom and France – opposed it and made Tehran's case for its support for pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria. , Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. The G-7 countries have addressed the same reproach in a statement in which they condemn their attack on Israel.

Iran is not a democracy and has a disastrous record of human rights violations. Israel is only a democracy for the Jews, while it imposes a regime on the Palestinians that NGOs such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch define as apartheid. He also faces a case of possible genocide at the UN International Court of Justice for his war in Gaza, in which almost 34,000 people have already died, according to the Ministry of Health of the Strip governed by Hamas. However, Israel has “unwavering” support from the United States, while Washington considers Iran a state sponsor of terrorism.

The Israeli attack against the Iranian diplomatic complex in Damascus convinced Tehran that “its deterrence capacity” was being questioned by not responding to these successive Israeli assassinations, emphasizes Spanish-Iranian analyst Daniel Bashandeh.

With this attack – revealed in advance by official Iranian media – which has only caused minor material damage and seriously injured a Palestinian girl, Iran is sending “a warning” to Israel and the international community, says Bashandeh. That warning is that from now on it will respond to attacks and “will open itself to direct selective attacks,” like the one this morning in Israel. The commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guard, Hossein Salami, has summed it up this way: “We have decided to launch a new equation [with respect to Israel]. From now on, any assault on our people, our property or our interests will trigger a reciprocal response from the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

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This barrage with drones and missiles against Israel also establishes, according to Bashandeh, the “internal credibility” of the regime in the face of the population base that still supports it, despite the impoverishment of the Iranians, the corruption, and the oppression that In the case of women, its symbol is the imposition of the veil. In turn, “it serves for the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his circle to reinforce the hard line of the regime and the internal support of the military elite, the Revolutionary Guard,” explains Bashandeh. Iran seeks to “recover the balance of forces in the region,” says the analyst.

Error or success?

From practically the beginning of the attack, when Iran's mission to the UN stated that with this operation it concluded its revenge for the assassination of General Zahedi, Tehran tried to underline the measured nature of that response that Rouzbeh Parsi describes as "choreographed." : first, the notice to neighboring countries in the region 72 hours in advance, according to the Iranian Foreign Minister; then, the announcement of the launch of drones that would take a few hours to impact. Lastly, the missiles.

These projectiles are the main argument of the Israeli military spokesman, Daniel Hagari, to deny that the attack was limited. Hagari has stressed that Iran launched up to 120 ballistic missiles, an “escalation factor” that sought to cause “much more significant” damage than it achieved. His narrative suggests that Israel is trying to position itself as the only one with the right to that “legitimate defense” that Iran also invokes. Underlining the seriousness of the aggression, Hagari highlighted the achievement that it represents for the country and its allies to have intercepted 99% of Iranian missiles and drones.

Judging by his story and that of the Iranian Government, this Sunday's attempt at war has only winners. Iranian officials are also claiming victory, while a possible Israeli response remains in the air that could drag both into a regional conflict in which the United States has shown signs of not wanting to get involved.

US President Joe Biden has already told Netanyahu that he will not support him in retaliation against Iran. “If the Israelis show restraint, then everyone will go home pretending to be the winner and Iran will be seen as having made a smart move. If the Israelis refuse to play this game and there is an escalation that leads to an open war, everyone will say that Tehran has made a mistake,” highlights Parsi.

This Saturday, Vali Nasr, an expert on Iran at Johns Hopkins University (Maryland), acknowledged in a tweet: “Iran has already achieved several victories. Europe and the Gulf States have found themselves in the undesirable situation of asking Iran for restraint, which imposes on them the responsibility of also stopping Israel's response (...). “This goes a long way toward achieving Iran’s goal of establishing a deterrence system with Israel.”

While this Israeli reaction arrives - or does not -, official Iran shows signs of joy. This Sunday, Mohammad Marandi, an intellectual who serves as the regime's unofficial spokesperson and who is considered very close to the hard-liners of the Islamic Republic, boasted that the attack had been "a small slap in the face" for Israel.

The main targets were 2 airbases. All 20 or so missiles struck their targets. The other drones and older generation missiles were inexpensive decoys that depleted the Israeli air defense capabilities of most of its very expensive missiles.

This was just a small slap in the face.

— Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) April 14, 2024

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