Turkey has presented a proposal for peace in the Ukraine war. It is still unlikely that he will be accepted. Will such an opportunity be missed?
Ankara - Turkey wants to promote the peace process in the Ukraine war with its own initiative. Apparently there is a draft treaty that proposes to freeze the war between Russia and Ukraine. Can this project, which in many respects...
According to a source familiar with the draft, the push for a peace deal is being promoted by Turkish President Recep Erdoğan and is an initiative of the Turkish side. This is reported by the independent Russian newspaper
Novaya Gazeta
. The document should already be available to all three sides, i.e. Turkey, Russia and Ukraine, and proposes a series of obligations for the parties to the conflict.
A freeze of the war along the existing front lines - do Russia and Ukraine agree?
According to the newspaper, the draft contract provides for the following:
A mutual commitment by the US and Russia not to use nuclear weapons under any circumstances and the renewal of the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (START-3). A unilateral exit should no longer be possible in the future.
A prohibition on interference in the internal affairs of another country in a manner that could destabilize its government.
A freeze of the war along the existing front lines.
A commitment to hold referendums in 2040. On the one hand, referendums throughout Ukraine on the country's foreign policy course. On the other hand, referendums under international control in all Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia at the time of the cessation of war.
Guarantees for Ukraine's non-alignment status until 2040.
Exchange of prisoners according to the formula “all for all”.
Russia must not prevent Ukraine from joining the European Union.
The ninth draft of its kind - Should Ukraine seize the opportunity?
The draft is partly based on the documents from the first negotiations in Istanbul. In the spring of 2022, shortly after the start of the war, a possible peace agreement was already being negotiated there. Ultimately, the conflicting parties were unable to come to an agreement - something that could not happen even with the latest efforts. According to
Novaya Gazeta,
this is the ninth draft of its kind.
Approval will probably take a lot of effort, especially for the Ukrainian side. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj presented his so-called peace formula at the end of 2022, which includes “ten principles for lasting peace in Ukraine”. In 2023, Zelensky again cited two of the demands as basic conditions for peace. The first is the return to Ukraine of control over the entire state border and exclusive economic zone in the Black and Azov Seas and the Kerch Strait. The second is the withdrawal of Russian troops, including the Black Sea Fleet, from all Ukrainian territory within the 1991 borders.
Putin sees Ukraine as part of Russia - Is the Turkish proposal a way out for Ukraine?
Russia's genuine agreement to the points also appears questionable. Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader, does not see Ukraine as an independent nation. In an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson published on February 8, Putin claimed that Russia has a historic claim to Ukraine. Stephen Hall, an expert on Russian politics at the University of Bath in Britain, told
Business Insider
that Russia needs to claim Ukraine as its own. This is the only way he can support his argument that Russia has been a great power that has existed for thousands of years.
Despite these major differences, the proposal could become more important in the future - at the latest if Donald Trump returns to the White House in the upcoming US election. Trump has repeatedly assured that if he returns as “commander in chief,” he will quickly resolve the dispute between Moscow and Kiev. According to the Italian newspaper
La Repubblica
, his strategy could be to give up Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine. According to the paper, NATO itself could now consider such a step in order to forestall Trump. Such an approach would finally transfer the occupied territories to Russia. Turkey's draft would at least leave it open whether this will happen.
(tpn)