Terrorism is a tactic and combating it requires a concerted strategy.
At its peak, the Islamic State controlled large areas and had tens of thousands of fighters
The USA, together with its allies, seemed to have stopped him
While other security interests came to the fore, IS rebuilt itself in secret
The attack on Moscow was predictable; There had been agitation against Russia for a long time; Europe is also coming into focus
In order to stop the problem, global efforts against terrorism must continue
This article is available for the first time in German - it was first published by
Foreign Policy
magazine on April 10, 2024 .
MOSCOW - The recent attack on a Moscow concert hall that killed more than 140 people has surprised many who believed that the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, was a problem of the past.
In fact, the Islamic State never disbanded. According to the Global Terrorism Index, an annual publication by the Institute for Economics & Peace that attempts to measure the impact of terrorism worldwide, the Islamic State "remained the world's deadliest terrorist group for the ninth consecutive year, recording both the highest number of attacks also of deaths caused by terrorism”. The Islamic State attacks in Iran and Turkey earlier this year underscore this dynamic.
Control over a large area and numerous attacks - IS attracted tens of thousands of fighters
At its peak, the Islamic State controlled an area in the Middle East roughly half the size of Britain. It attracted tens of thousands of foreign fighters from dozens of countries worldwide. Its fighters beheaded Westerners, burned a captured Jordanian pilot alive and resorted to nefarious methods of murdering their captives, including drowning and crucifixion.
These crimes against humanity were recorded, and ISIS distributed these snuff films as propaganda to terrify civilians and recruit bloodthirsty extremists into its ranks. The group even held slave auctions where Yazidi women were purchased.
Within a few years, ISIS directed or inspired numerous high-profile attacks across Europe, including the Bataclan in Paris (2015), the Brussels Metro attack (2016), Nice (2016), Berlin (2016), Stockholm (2017), Istanbul (2017) and Barcelona (2017), to name a few. There have also been attacks around the world, from New York City to Tunis.
The Islamic State seemed to be omnipresent - the USA and its allies tried to stop it
At the time, the Islamic State appeared to be omnipresent, but an aggressive U.S.-led counterterrorism campaign called the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS helped wrest control of large areas of Iraq and Syria from the organization - particularly about the group's strongholds in Mosul and Raqqa. The effort included a sustained airstrike campaign to bomb ISIS command and control hubs, as well as intensive ground operations with a combination of U.S. special operations forces, Kurdish militias and even Iraqi Shiite militia groups known as Hashd al-Shaabi.
In late March 2019, just over five years ago, the Syrian city of Baghouz fell to the Syrian Democratic Forces, ending the group's territorial caliphate. To date, the United States has about 900 troops stationed in Syria and another 2,500 in Iraq, providing a bulwark against an ISIS comeback in those countries. And when Baghouz fell, there was widespread optimism that the scourge of the Islamic State could be defeated once and for all.
“The land of God is wide” - IS expanded globally and set up branches
But the Islamic State was well prepared for this inevitability. Even the group's former longtime leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, foresaw the repossession of territory associated with the caliphate, imploring ISIS sympathizers that "the magnitude of victory or defeat ... is not tied to one city or one village." “. “The land of God is wide,” he continued, “and the tides of war are changing.”
Part of the Islamic State's strategy was to expand globally and build a worldwide network of franchise groups, subsidiaries and branches that could carry out its mission in different regions. Over the course of several years, beginning in 2014, ISIS officially recognized wilayats or provinces in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, Afghanistan (Khorasan), Libya, Bangladesh, the Philippines, West Africa, the Sahel, and Central Africa (Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo).
The US security establishment had other concerns - ISIS as an African and South Asian problem?
This campaign was successful. After its rise and fall in the heart of the Middle East, the Islamic State's center of gravity has shifted to parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In 2023, the 10 countries most affected by terrorism included: Burkina Faso (1), Mali (3), Pakistan (4), Afghanistan (6), Somalia (7), Nigeria (8), and Nigeria (10). In sub-Saharan Africa, the Islamic State of Sahel (formerly known as the Islamic State of the Greater Sahara or ISGS) and Islamic State of West Africa (ISWAP) provinces control large areas stretching from the outskirts of the West African coast to the Lake Chad Basin.
With the Islamic State now perceived as more of an African and South Asian problem, the fight against the group has significantly decreased on the international community's agenda. In the West, particularly in the United States, the national security establishment is instead focused on the rise of China, the war in Ukraine, the impact of the war between Israel and Hamas, and the spread of new technologies, including artificial intelligence.
An Asymmetrical Tool - Terrorism is a tactic and it never really goes away
When global terrorism appears to be waning, it is usually in response to counterterrorism pressures.
But terrorism is a tactic. It never truly goes away, and it endures because it is versatile - an asymmetric tool of non-state actors or the preferred response of states sponsoring proxy groups.
When it flares up again, it is often a reaction to changing geopolitical dynamics. Both sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, for example, are plagued by similar ills: porous borders, weak security services, and populations experiencing socioeconomic grievances that terrorist groups can exploit for recruiting purposes, particularly in countries with high male military populations Age.
The Taliban kept IS under control in Afghanistan - so attacks were planned abroad
In Afghanistan, IS-K has been able to rebuild its network for planning external operations since the Taliban came to power in August 2021. A particularly interesting dynamic is that the Taliban were able to limit IS-K's ability to operate within Afghanistan, so that in response, Islamic State fighters focused their resources on planning attacks abroad - in the region, but also in countries further afield , including in Europe - have used.
As of April 2024, the Afghan branch of the Islamic State appears to have restored its ability to operate abroad, and the organization's regional branches have managed to capitalize on the anger of many Muslim communities over the war in Gaza and the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians, including many women and Children to capitalize.
IS is expanding its range of targets - the latest attack in Moscow was predictable
IS-K's increased operational tempo and frequency of attacks suggest that the group is expanding its range of targets. The recent attack in Moscow in particular was predictable. For years, ISIS-K has railed against Moscow in its propaganda and portrayed Russian President Vladimir Putin as a Shiite stooge, citing the Kremlin's ties with Iran, Russia's support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and its support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Lebanese Hezbollah led Russian mercenaries from the Wagner group operating in Syria.
Now it is determined to attack European soil. There have been recent foiled attacks in Germany, and President Emmanuel Macron announced in late March that French intelligence had thwarted several IS-K attacks on France. Recently, retired US General Frank McKenzie commented on the nature of the threat: “I think we should expect more attempts of this kind against the United States, as well as against our partners and other nations abroad.”
The Islamic State is learning - The West must maintain the fight against terrorism
Until now, the agents on which IS-K relied in its failed attacks in Europe were inexperienced. Some attacks are prevented by counterterrorism expertise, others by the ineptitude and occasional amateurism of terrorists. But the Islamic State is a learning organization. Its leadership will study the points of failure and try to improve their tactics, techniques and procedures for the next attacks.
We should therefore ask our leaders, policymakers and elected officials what the strategy is to defuse a relentless threat from a determined enemy. Part of this strategy must be to prevent Western counterterrorism efforts from atrophying further. For two decades, counterterrorism has been the cornerstone of efforts to dismantle groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS. The United States and its allies around the world formed intelligence-sharing partnerships and worked together to disseminate critical information about terrorist suspects, groups, tactics, and ideologies that motivate violence.
Strategic competition and counterterrorism - PMC Wagner has actually made the problem worse
Dealing with a rising China and a revanchist Russia is crucial, but there is little point in leaving the counterterrorism cupboard empty in the process. Finally, strategic competition and counterterrorism are not mutually exclusive; they complement each other. The relationships Washington has built with its Western partners over two decades of counterterrorism can help generate the kind of intelligence that also proves useful when dealing with “great powers.”
Another important pillar of a robust global counterterrorism strategy is physical proximity to some of the hotspots of global terrorism in order to respond in a timely manner. In the Sahel, the United States has a minimal presence but is reportedly considering establishing a drone base in Ghana and other coastal locations to prevent the tide of jihadist terrorism from completely sweeping the West African coastal regions. After the withdrawal of France and the USA in the region, the power vacuum was filled by the Russian Afrika Korps; the Wagner Group, which preceded him, was known for worsening rather than improving the jihadist problem.
Partnerships, lessons and best practices - a combination of hard and soft force
Many of the partnerships, lessons and best practices from the Global War on Terror should not be discarded simply because the focus of ISIS and its allies is currently elsewhere. Western security and intelligence services must remain vigilant, but more importantly, a steady and continuous stream of resources - money, personnel and counterterrorism tools - must be committed to the fight.
Only a comprehensive approach to counterterrorism - a combination of hard and soft force - can help reduce the number of extremists who serve as foot soldiers for groups like the Islamic State and its global network of affiliates.
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com” on April 10, 2024 - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.