Israel thanks Germany for its solidarity after the attack by Iran and calls for a common front against the mullahs' regime in Tehran. But: what should this look like? A search for clues.
Tel Aviv – The word “conflagration” has become very common in international politics in recent days following Iran’s missile attacks on Israel. The concern: that the war in Israel and Gaza could expand into an even larger conflict in the Middle East.
Iran's attack on Israel: Annalena Baerbock warns Tel Aviv of retaliation
“The right to self-defense means defending against an attack. Retaliation is not a category in international law,” said Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) on Monday (April 15) at an aid conference for Sudan in Paris organized by France and Germany when asked by a journalist whether Israel had the right to retaliate .
Benny Gantz, a member of the Israeli war cabinet, said he had previously spoken to Baerbock on the phone about forming a “global front” against the mullahs’ regime in Tehran. The German Foreign Minister sounded much more reserved. The question arises: In addition to negotiating diplomacy, what could Germany offer Tel Aviv militarily for such a “global front”?
Germany and Israel: Berlin bought an Arrow-3 missile shield from Tel Aviv
Baerbock spoke of a “defensive victory” for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), which was able to shoot down a large part of the approximately 300 Iranian rockets, cruise missiles and drones from Saturday to Sunday with the help of the Americans, the British and Jordan. This defensive victory “now needs to be secured diplomatically. Our priority must be to prevent a wildfire in the region,” the Green politician continued.
“Israel won in a defensive manner, thanks to its strong air defense and thanks to the courageous intervention of the USA, Great Britain and Arab states,” said Baerbock. Keyword anti-aircraft defense. In June 2023, the traffic light federal government decided to purchase an Arrow 3 missile shield from Israel for Germany. According to Berlin's ideas, the Israeli government must "make advance payments and commission the construction of production and production in a timely manner," the Federal Ministry of Defense explained at the time: "This can accelerate the procurement process by six months." So far, however, the system has not been delivered, or at least by Partial elements are known to the Federal Republic.
This defensive victory now needs to be secured diplomatically. Our priority must be to prevent a wildfire in the region.
Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens)
Air defense against long-range missiles: Israel needs Arrow-3 systems itself
Such a defense system against long- and medium-range ballistic missiles, which is manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries, costs two billion euros. And that has a range of up to 2,400 kilometers. After Germany purchased the system, the danger of a major war in the Middle East increased significantly. First through the terrorist attack by the radical Islamist Hamas on Israeli settlements. Then through the simultaneous shelling of the Jewish state by the Shiite Hezbollah from Lebanon and the IDF's invasion of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
To put it into perspective: one of the 7.50 meter long and two tonne anti-missile missiles costs an estimated three million US dollars. Not only are they expensive, their production is also quite complex. This means that the guided missiles are not produced on an assembly line. An indication of the high frequency that Israeli air defense could expect in the coming months is an assessment by the
Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
. Specifically: The
ISW
experts believe that Iran wanted to test the most effective approach to penetrating air defenses with its recent missile attacks on Israel.
Also to protect Israel: German Navy patrols the Red Sea
As a result of the Iranian shelling, the IDF's own need for anti-aircraft missiles has suddenly become (once again) greater. Both on the launch pads and on the rockets themselves. Conversely, Germany could or would have to wait longer until it is the Bundeswehr's turn to deliver the components and guided missiles. While this scenario is speculation, other military support has long been real: the participation of the German Navy in the maritime operation of the European Union (EU) and the United States against the pro-Iranian Houthi rebels from Yemen in the Red Sea.
The dispatched frigate “Hessen” has already shot down Houthi drones there. Officially, the deployment is about protecting international shipping in the waters. But: After drones from Yemen headed towards Israel, the European and American naval ships in the Red Sea are also being assigned as support for Tel Aviv. The “Hessen” has integrated 32 Mk 41 Vertical Launching Systems on deck, which can fire ship-borne anti-aircraft missiles of the type RIM-162 Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (ESSM). In addition, the German frigate “Brandenburg” with around 200 soldiers is stationed off the coast of Lebanon to monitor shipping traffic there with other partners – north of Israel.
German arms deliveries to Israel: Berlin sent anti-tank weapons
A central question of German support for Israel will probably be the extent to which Berlin will agree to further arms deliveries after criticism of the IDF's violent actions against the civilian population in Gaza. As the Ministry of Economic Affairs recently announced, the traffic light federal government had allowed arms exports for Tel Aviv amounting to a comparatively manageable amount of nine million euros between January 1st and February 15th. For comparison: In 2023, the coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP agreed to arms exports to Israel worth 326.5 million euros - ten times as much as in 2022.
This also included so-called war weapons worth 20.1 million euros, including 3,000 portable anti-tank weapons and 500,000 rounds of ammunition for machine guns. The anti-tank weapons could have been the RGW 90 Matador, which the IDF had already used in urban warfare in January 2009 during Operation Cast Lead in Gaza. However, battles between Israeli and Iranian ground troops currently seem distant, also due to the geographical location of both countries.
(pm)