On video: echoes of explosions and interceptions in the sky following the Iranian attack/use according to Section 27 A of the Copyright Law, Shlomi Heller
Against the background of the unprecedented Iranian attack on Israeli territory and following the War Cabinet's declaration to respond to the new threat, the question arises as to how to attack Iran without degenerating the entire region into war. Col. (Res.) Kobi Marom, a national security expert, spoke this morning (Tuesday) with Anat Davidov and Udi Segal on Radio 103FM, and addressed the complex issue
. : "I think this is the challenge. I suggest trusting the War Cabinet. This is an event that in my eyes is very serious and unusual, and there is definitely an Iranian attempt here to change the rules of the game and the equation of deterrence against Israel. It is worth mentioning that Iran has been waging war against us for six months and in my view has not paid significant prices, on the contrary, it has considerable successes. Therefore, even in retrospect, the elimination of the group in Syria was appropriate and right."
Marom continued and explained that "when you look at the Israeli dilemma of whether to respond or not to respond, I think the main issue is the issue of the loss of deterrence. I think this event shows that the Iranians understood and felt the loss of Israeli deterrence, as well as American. The Iranians attack and understand the American weakness, that the Americans do almost anything to prevent a regional war. Iran recognized Israel's weakness on the seventh of October, in the same attack that surprised the entire region with its strength and Israeli weakness, and it also recognizes the serious crisis with the United States surrounding the war."
According to him, for Iran this is a strategic opportunity to change the rules of the game. "In any case, they have an open account with us for many years. The Iranian general and the total elimination was the trigger for the attempt to take advantage of the Israeli weakness. It is impossible to restore deterrence with words or praises for an outstanding success in defense - in our neighborhood we need to use force. Ben Gvir and Smotrich's banter is serious, it is a lack of understanding of the strategic significance of the event. The banter of the ministers is really out of place, the fact that the Chief of Staff is standing up and telling the public 'we will respond', because he understands the cost of this attack for deterrence, 'in moderation', is a correct statement. This is why we need to maintain surprise, discretion."
He also claimed that "from this event it is important to take two important insights - the importance of the coalition, but let's not fool ourselves, there is a clear Israeli interest here in strengthening the coalition that was created, which the US has been offering for months. There are no free meals, the ability to leverage this coalition to attack and formulate a strategy against Iran will not happen without solving the problem of the day after in Gaza. The second thing, in my eyes, this event gave us some proportions, how much Rafih did not foresee everything and how huge the challenge in the north is and how much bigger compared to the statements that in my view were irresponsible regarding Rafih now."
"Hamas' absolute 'no' regarding the abductee deal illustrates the strategic floundering in the north," he attacked. "There is no deal, there is no respite, and the cabinet, which has not made a decision regarding the North for months, must initiate a decision and an Israeli move to continue fighting. Of course, in full coordination with the US, but at the moment there is no respite and we do not have to play according to Hezbollah's trumpet. Israel needs to make it clear to the US, whether in negotiations, while fighting, whether it is possible to reach a settlement, but it needs to take real steps, because if it doesn't happen in the next few weeks, by the end of 2024, in my opinion, no one will return to the abandoned north."