Russia is stepping on the accelerator on the Donetsk front. In this province in eastern Ukraine, the invading forces are taking advantage of the growing weakness of the Ukrainian arsenal and also the weather: the scarce rains and high temperatures are allowing their armored columns to roll without problems. There are videos released by Russian military accounts that show the transport of infantry in these vehicles even to the first Ukrainian defense positions.
The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksander Sirskii, warned on Saturday of the return of the role of tanks and other armor in large numbers in the Russian offensive. This is thanks to the fact that the spring rains have not yet occurred, turning the field into a quagmire that slows down the military caterpillars. Sirskii acknowledged that the war map in Donetsk had “worsened significantly.” “The situation on the front is always complicated, but now more so, especially in the Donetsk sector,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on Sunday. The invader took full control on Saturday of the Pervomaiske municipality, west of Avdiivka. This means that since February, when Russian troops conquered Avdiivka, they have advanced 10 kilometers. Precisely, it was in Pervomaiske where the Catalan Pau Heras, enrolled as a soldier in the 59th Motorized Brigade of Ukraine, lost his life last December.
From Avdiivka and the neighboring city of Donetsk, Russia is advancing on two flanks towards the municipality of Pokrovsk, the rear base in this southern part of the province. A video that has emerged of the Russian advance in this sector of the front shows the absence of artillery fire and anti-tank rocket launchers to stop the Russian armored columns. Only some mortars try to stop the progress of the enemy infantry vehicles, which reach a Ukrainian trench. The main weapon that Ukraine has today is its massive fleet of drones, which are allowing the enemy to be kept at bay despite Russian superiority in all areas.
“The only thing that is preventing the Russians from breaking the entire front are our FPV drones [with camera and remote vision], 90% of which have been donated by civilians or purchased by the military units themselves,” he told AFP on April 12.
The Telegraph
Ukrainian Lieutenant Colonel Pavlo Kurilenko. “A year ago, the situation regarding ammunition and equipment was bad, now it is terrible,” said Kurilenko, one of the most prestigious commanders in Ukraine. Zelensky already warned on March 29 in
The Washington Post
that drones cannot replace artillery ammunition, anti-aircraft batteries, or long-range weapons that allow disrupting logistical lines or destroying command centers. Ukraine urgently needs all of this, especially due to Congress's blocking of the transfer of military aid from the United States.
The Ukrainian president indicated, in line with the figures provided by military commanders on the ground, that his forces only have 25% of the artillery ammunition necessary to resist the Russian push. Equally evident is the lack of anti-aircraft defenses: more and more Russian missiles are hitting their targets in cities far from the fighting and the invader's fighters attack more frequently on the front without fear of being shot down. “If we do not have the support of the United States, it means that we do not have anti-aircraft defenses, we do not have Patriot missiles, we do not have inhibitors against electronic warfare, we do not have artillery ammunition. He means that we will go backwards; going back, step by step.”
Chasiv Yar, immediate objective
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The steps back are already taking place. Russia is putting all its efforts to conquer Chasiv Yar, a municipality five kilometers from Bakhmut and a determining factor in the Kremlin's final objective: controlling the 40% of the province of Donetsk that continues to be part of free Ukraine. Chasiv Yar is situated on an elevated position from which neighboring Kostiantinivka would be easy prey. As indicated this Sunday by the Center for Defense Strategies (CDS), the Ukrainian institute of military studies, “the conquest or siege of Kostiantinivka” would cut the road that connects the southern front of Donetsk – that of Pokrovsk – with the northern one, which It has its rear bases in the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. The CDS also warned that a next Russian attack will occur east of Sloviansk, from the Siversk area, to prepare for a future siege on Kramatorsk. Sirskii confirmed that the Russian strategy is planned to try to reach Kramatorsk in the future, something that would practically mean the Ukrainian loss of the province of Donetsk.
Sirskii said Sunday that the Russian high command wants to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9, when Russia commemorates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. The time frame to achieve this is very tight, despite the fact that Kremlin troops planted their flag last week in Bogdanivka, a village that already places them on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. EL PAÍS visited Chasiv Yar in February during the first phase of the Russian siege, which consisted of systematic punishment using artillery on the urban area. On April 9, a video was made public of two Russian Su-25 fighters flying over the municipality and attacking Ukrainian positions without receiving anti-aircraft fire, something that until a few months ago was difficult to imagine. In the second phase of the battle, Russian forces have tested the foot defenses of the municipality and now assault maneuvers have begun to cross the Sivertsky Donets – Donbas water canal, an infrastructure that is serving as a barrier.
From the Donetsk front, Commander Sirskii indicated on Sunday that it is necessary to “improve the quality of [soldiers'] training, including the psychological component,” a comment that was interpreted as a reference to the fatigue accumulated by hundreds of thousands of military, who have been fighting for more than two years. The new mobilization law, approved last week, should serve to incorporate nearly 400,000 new recruits into the Armed Forces, but these will not be ready to enter combat until well into the summer.
It is precisely in the summer when a major Russian offensive is expected. Rob Lee, one of the leading analysts of the conflict in Ukraine, from the American Foreign Policy Research Institute, wrote on Saturday that Moscow wants Chasiv Yar to fall before the summer, and from there, launch its campaign for the coming hot months. , the most suitable for the movement of armored vehicles. The head of the intelligence services of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Kirilo Budanov, commented on April 7 on German television ARD that he foresees the start of the Russian offensive for the beginning of June, with Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk as spoils to be won. Budanov – known for his defiant tone and his sometimes overly optimistic forecasts – was especially concerned: “Without sufficient support from the West, resistance will be catastrophically difficult.”
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