US President Joe Biden is trying to change Israel's course in Gaza. But the Iranian attack poses new challenges.
Washington, DC – Iran's recent attack on Israel has complicated President Biden's efforts to change Israel's course in the Gaza Strip and introduced a new, unpredictable element to his efforts to prevent an escalation of the war between Israel and Gaza.
After Iran's attack on Israel: Joe Biden is under pressure with Gaza policy
Just a few days ago, Biden told Israel that the US would reconsider its Gaza policy if Israel did not immediately address the humanitarian catastrophe in the enclave, which is on the brink of famine due to the Israeli siege. That warning was seen by many analysts as a sign that the president would consider imposing conditions on military aid to the Jewish state.
However, after the Iranian attack on Sunday, Biden said America's commitment to Israel's defense in the conflict with Tehran was "ironclad" and he again urged Congress to approve more military aid for Israel.
While these two messages can coexist, Biden is calling on Israel to change course on one front of the conflict with its neighbors while pledging his unwavering support on another front.
“The president publicly threatened to condition military support, so we were about to take a much tougher stance toward the Israelis. Then came the Iranian attack and everything was swept aside,” said Frank Lowenstein, a former State Department official who helped lead the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations in 2014. “Now we’re back in step on their big security issues.”
Lowenstein added: “How does this affect all the priorities we had before, including the ceasefire, humanitarian assistance and settler violence, and what happens next?”
Counterattack on Iran: USA wants to pressure Israel to show restraint
U.S. officials are publicly and privately urging Israel to show restraint in response to the barrage of more than 300 drones and missiles that Iran sent into Israeli territory on Saturday night. According to official figures, 99 percent of the bullets were intercepted and damage to Israel was minimal.
However, Israeli officials said the unprecedented airstrike could not go unanswered. They considered on Monday how best to respond without angering their allies, whose support for Israel in the face of the Iranian attack contrasts sharply with their criticism of the scorched-earth military campaign in Gaza.
On Monday, the White House tried to portray the fact that Tehran suffered no significant damage or casualties as a resounding Israeli victory, apparently in part to signal to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he did not need to react. Washington has also stressed that it will not take part in Israel's planned military response.
Biden advised Netanyahu that this was an extraordinary success and that this success alone spoke volumes about Israel's standing in the region," White House spokesman John Kirby said Monday. “The President urged the Prime Minister to reflect on what this success alone means for the rest of the region.”
Kirby argued that the Iranian attack strengthened Israel's strategic position and weakened Iran's, as it showed that Tehran had little ability to harm Israel. The White House appeared to be trying to ease Israel's sense of vulnerability and isolation since October 7, when Hamas militants easily breached Israeli defenses on the Gaza border, killing 1,200 people, many of them civilians, according to Israeli authorities , and took 253 hostage.
Israel's retaliatory attack was strongly condemned internationally
Israel's retaliatory attack on the Gaza Strip has left more than 33,000 Palestinians dead, according to the Health Ministry, and drawn strong international condemnation due to the high civilian death toll and Israel's refusal to allow large aid shipments to the Gaza Strip.
“Much of the world stands with Israel today,” Kirby said Monday, adding: “Unlike Iran, which is increasingly isolated on the world stage, Israel has friends.”
The Iranian action last weekend was in response to an Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Syria two weeks ago that killed two senior commanders. Iran said over the weekend that no further military action was currently planned beyond the missile and drone fire, but that any further Israeli action would be met with a "at least ten-fold response."
Since the Oct. 7 attacks, Israel has sought to address a range of nearby threats with military force, arguing that it must restore deterrence in the region. Israel's opponents include not only Hamas in the Gaza Strip, but also Hezbollah on Israel's northern border with Lebanon, where there has been rocket fire for several months, which has caused deaths in Lebanon. Tens of thousands of Israeli citizens have not yet been able to return to their homes in the north because of the ongoing fighting.
Shadow war between Israel and Iran should not escalate
American officials are increasingly concerned that Israel is seeking a direct confrontation with Iran, going beyond the long-running "shadow war" between the two countries that has involved proxies and relatively limited attacks. They worry that such a development could bring the United States on board, which is one reason they urged Israel on Monday not to escalate the conflict.
Nevertheless, Israel's leadership is signaling that it believes it must respond to a barrage of weapons fired directly at its soil.
“One of the benefits of Israel not attacking is that it can make diplomatic efforts to isolate Iran and it reduces public pressure on the Gaza Strip,” said Ron Halber, executive director of the Jewish Community Relations Council of Greater Washington. "The Israelis know this. The fact that they are willing to strain relations with the Biden administration over a counterattack shows the psychological impact of October 7 on Israel's psyche."
Biden officials' unease about the coming weeks is compounded by their concerns about the mindset of Netanyahu, who U.S. officials increasingly believe is putting his own political survival above all else, potentially leading him to bring on the fighting to extend on several fronts. Netanyahu is deeply unpopular with Israeli voters, who blame him for the security failures that led to the Oct. 7 attacks, and he faces numerous corruption allegations, but his opponents are finding it harder to support him amid the ongoing to overthrow hostilities.
Many U.S. officials fear that Netanyahu is far more concerned with appeasing the far-right members of his coalition - who favor relocation of the Gaza Strip, arming Israeli settlers in the West Bank and a direct fight against Iran - than with Biden's appeals for de-escalation and to provide more assistance and protection to Palestinians. Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected Biden's demands since October 7, despite the United States providing him unwavering military and diplomatic support.
“A large part of the Israeli government wants a conflict with Iran and sees this as an opportunity to get rid of Iran's nuclear program or bring the United States into the game,” said Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who served in the Clinton administration worked on Middle East issues.
“Netanyahu faces corruption trial”
Netanyahu “is preoccupied with his political survival,” Riedel added. “He knows that in the event of a ceasefire, an end to the conflict, the Israeli people will demand accountability and that he will be thrown out of office very quickly. Then he faces a corruption trial.”
The threat of escalation between Iran and Israel also overshadows the combustibility of the occupied West Bank. Israeli settlers there have been rioting against Palestinians in recent days following the death of an Israeli teenager. One Palestinian was killed and dozens of others injured when settlers set fire to homes and cars.
While the White House has tried to pressure Netanyahu to curb Israeli settler violence - and has imposed sanctions on a handful of settlers accused of violently attacking Palestinians - the conflict in the West Bank could be another This could be an issue that is more difficult for the government to address if it wants to prevent further escalation in the Middle East.
“If the Biden administration was frustrated before, then nothing that happened has lessened its frustration but made it harder for it to change course,” an outside adviser said. “I think what we are seeing is an understanding that Israel is not just about Gaza, but about eliminating the threat that it faced and was willing to live with, but is no longer willing to to live."
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English on April 16, 2024 at the “Washingtonpost.com” - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.