Putin wants to stimulate the Russian economy. However, the shortage of skilled workers remains a persistent problem. Russia faces a dilemma.
Moscow – Inflation, high war spending, the threat of overheating: Instead of finding solutions, Vladimir Putin is driving the economy further into ruin. The fight against the shortage of skilled workers could apparently do more harm than good to the Russian economy. “They are sawing the branch on which they are sitting,” said the independent Russian demographer Alexei Rakscha in an interview with the
Berliner Zeitung.
Russia's economy struggles with labor shortage: “Sawing on the branch they are sitting on”
Russia depends on immigration for economic and demographic reasons. However, after the attack in Moscow on March 22nd, which investigators say was carried out by four Tajiks, Russia apparently wants to rethink its migration policy.
According to the
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
, Russia said that migrants were being deported en masse. In other cities, security forces began checking people with “eastern appearance” shortly after the attack. In addition, hatred grew in Russia, particularly towards Central Asian migrant workers. According to
CNN
, those affected received death threats, suffered verbal attacks and discrimination.
Russia's economy relies on immigration
Human rights lawyer Valentina Chupik told independent Russian media outlet
Mediazona
that she had received over 8,500 requests from foreigners in Russia since the March 22 terrorist attack, almost three quarters of which related to illegal arrests. Many migrants are being arbitrarily deported, she added.
However, according to Rakscha, Russia cannot do without so-called “migrant workers”, primarily for economic reasons. It is estimated that there are ten million migrant workers living in Russia, as the Russian President announced at a press conference in December 2023. However, Rakscha doubts this number. Most of them come from Central Asia and move to Russia to work, where they hope for better job opportunities than in their home countries.
Putin's workforce is running away - consequences for Russia's economy
Since the war in Ukraine, the shortage of skilled workers in Russia has increased. It is estimated that Russia's economy will be short of around 4.8 million workers in 2023. Citing the study's author, Nikolai Akhapkin, the Russian newspaper
Izvestia
stated that labor shortages increased dramatically in 2022 and 2023.
Drivers and shop workers are particularly in demand. According to Labor Minister Anton Kotyakov, the labor shortage is also being felt strongly in manufacturing, construction and transportation. According to official data cited by
Izvestia
, the number of unfilled positions rose to 6.8 percent of the total workforce by mid-2023, up from 5.8 percent last year.
Sanctions against Russia's economy are curbing advances in technology
Sanctions also limit Putin's options for solving problems in the Russian labor market and stabilizing the economy. So he could try to increase labor productivity in Russia. But technological advances would initially be a prerequisite for this. Rakscha told the
Berliner Zeitung
: “In high-tech Germany, an asphalt path in a park is laid by one worker and a lot of machines. In Russia, ten Tajiks with shovels and a Russian foreman do this.” Sanctions would currently prevent this progress.
Putin's strategy of wanting to increase labor productivity while sending young people to the front is also not working. According to unconfirmed information from Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, there are 25 million reservists in Russia. At the beginning of last year, the aim was to expand the army from 1.15 million to 1.5 million soldiers by 2026. “It is unclear whether the Russian military will be able to grow within three years as Shoigu described,” the ISW war experts said at the time. Especially when you consider the shortage of skilled workers.