Israel must choose between responding to the Iranian attack and annihilating Hamas battalions in the overcrowded Rafah stronghold in the Gaza Strip, two simultaneous fronts impossible to sustain at the same time, experts estimate.
For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the problem only arises in terms of calendar, because he firmly believes in achieving both objectives. But he cannot entirely ignore calls from the United States and Europe for restraint and to protect civilians in the Palestinian territory.
Analysts
rule out that the Israeli army could attack both fronts
.
"Israel will not be able to carry out an offensive in Rafah and a response against Iran at the same time," considers Michael Horowitz, director of Le Beck's security cabinet. "There will be a sequence, and a decision that will have to be made," he assures AFP.
Little has been leaked from the war cabinets that have been taking place since Sunday in Tel Aviv, as
there is division
between the hawks of the extreme right who advocate inflicting exemplary punishment on Iran and attacking Rafah, and the more cautious ministers.
Israel does not fear a priori a new direct Iranian attack and
can afford to take time to study options
that not only do not "cause an escalation" but make it easier to "stop the crisis," emphasizes John Erath, director of research at the Center for Control. of Arms and Non-Proliferation.
Iran claims that scores with its sworn enemy are provisionally settled following its attack, which was in response to the bombing of its consulate in Damascus on April 1 in which seven Revolutionary Guards were killed.
Israel will act "at the time, place and manner we determine," army spokesman Daniel Hagari warned on Monday.
Imminent offensive
The Israeli press, citing security sources, believes it knows that
the offensive against Rafah was to begin this week
although the plans of the army, which has not reported on the matter, were impacted by the Iranian attack.
After six months of attacks and fierce fighting, the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas would retain four battalions in the large city at the southern end of the Gaza Strip, on the border with Egypt.
Israel cannot, however, launch an attack as long as the 1.5 million displaced people who fled the war, according to the UN, have not been evacuated.
But
violent fighting persists
in the center of the enclave and Israel still rejects the return of the displaced to the north.
A statement said Monday that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had a meeting to discuss a "series of measures to be taken in preparation for operations in Rafah, in particular on the evacuation of civilians."
Of the 40,000 tents recently ordered through a tender, his ministry has already acquired 30,000, a third of which must be deployed in the next two weeks near Rafah, sources told the Israeli press.
The same sources consider that the rejection by Hamas of the latest truce project presented by the American, Egyptian and Qatari mediators in Cairo at the beginning of April will accelerate the launch of the offensive, since Netanyahu is convinced that Hamas does not want an agreement.
However, it is impossible to deduce a date from this, except as a matter of "speculation," warns John Erath.
The diplomatic impact
In both cases, "the diplomatic impact weighs on Israeli calculations," says Michael Horowitz.
A growing part of the international community criticized the bloody reprisals in the Gaza Strip following the massacre carried out by Hamas commandos on October 7, but the barrage of Iranian drones and missiles launched at the weekend against Israeli territory achieved again narrow the ranges favorable to Israel.
A ground offensive in Rafah, as well as an excessive response to the Iranian attack, could erase the diplomatic benefits. On the other hand, Israel could take advantage of this parenthesis in many foreign chancelleries to act.
Without thinking about Rafah, those same allies could demand "that Israel not respond" to the Iranian attack, "which seems likely to me," Horowitz adds.
Domestically,
Israeli public opinion also appears divided
.
According to research by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem published on Tuesday, 48% of those surveyed are in favor of a response against Iran at any price (52% against), and 44% are in favor of an offensive in Rafah even if it weakens relations with the United States. Joined.
Source: AFP
C.B.