Iran is awaiting Israel's response to the weekend airstrike. Religious leader Khamenei probably wants to avoid war because it could endanger the regime.
Tehran – The impact was both big and small. For the first time ever, Iran directly attacked Israel on Saturday evening (April 13), making a major war in the Middle East more likely. More than 500 drones, rockets and cruise missiles are said to have flown towards Israel - but very few reached their destination. According to the Israeli army, Israel and its allies intercepted around 99 percent of the missiles.
The feared Israeli backlash could put religious leader Ari Khamenei, the most powerful man in the state, in trouble shortly before his 85th birthday this week. Experts suspect that a war with Israel could have fatal consequences for the Islamic Republic - possibly even endangering the state's survival.
Experts see “deep legitimacy crisis” in Iran – is war destroying the religious leader’s life’s work?
This is what Ali Fathollah-Nejad, founding director of the Berlin think tank Center for Middle East and Global Order (CMEG), says in
the Tagesspiegel
. The regime is experiencing a “deep crisis of legitimacy,” the newspaper quotes the Middle East expert as saying. Khamenei risks the destruction of his life's work.
The hostility between Iran and Israel, which has been waged primarily verbally or through proxies for decades, is threatening to escalate at a time when the mullahs' regime appears to have lost support among the population. Most Iranians can no longer identify with the authoritarian state leadership and its moral police, which strictly ensure compliance with the Islamic dress code and punish violations draconianly.
Silent protest in everyday life: According to a survey, the majority of Iran rejects the repressive system of rule
For several months starting in the fall of 2022, countless Iranians protested on the streets every day against the repressive regime, its Islamic system of rule and, above all, against the oppression of women in Iran. The government reacted harshly. Tens of thousands of people have been imprisoned, and human rights organizations speak of more than 700 executions in 2023 alone.
The demonstrations have now subsided, but the silent protest in everyday life remains. Despite all the reprisals and punishments, many women continued to refuse to wear a headscarf, the
Tagesschau
reported at the beginning of the year and described the mood in simple words: lethargic with little hope of any improvement in the near future. It is difficult to say how great the rejection of the regime is: in December 2022, according to an online survey by the Dutch research institute Gamaan, 81 percent of people in Iran spoke out against the Islamic Republic.
According to the expert, Iran is in a critical transition period - classic dilemma about Khamenei's successor
The future of the ruling system is being debated in the country, but not always publicly, the
dpa
reported recently. Insiders now see Khamenei pushed into a corner. During the protests a year and a half ago, people also chanted “Death to the dictatorship,” and a historically low 41 percent of eligible voters turned out for the parliamentary election last month. Instead, the already very powerful Revolutionary Guards, the ideological elite forces, could concentrate power on themselves - a new religious leader could only play a symbolic role.
Political scientist Azadeh Zamirirad from the Science and Politics Foundation sees the country in a critical transition period, as she told the agency. “Such phases can quickly be accompanied by instability. Here the risk of intensified power struggles, attempted coups or a coup increases.” She speaks of a classic succession dilemma. If the ruler appoints a successor, it is possible that the ruler will lose power and influence during his term in office. If he doesn't appoint anyone, there could be more intense conflicts, "because each group can still hope that it will take power."
There is no clear successor, the
Neue Zürcher Zeitung
wrote in November 2023. The religious leader is in weakened health - in the event of his death there is a risk of an open succession dispute or a dangerous power vacuum. The population can take advantage of this power vacuum. The protests in themselves could not shake the regime, but they could pose a threat to it.
Iran is actually not interested in a major war with Israel
A military conflict with Israel would probably be inconvenient for Khamenei. “The Iranian leadership actually has no interest in being drawn into a larger regional conflict,” confirmed Middle East expert Andreas Böhm from the University of St. Gallen in a recent interview with fr.de from IPPEN.MEDIA. The projectiles on the night from Saturday to Sunday were largely symbolic in nature. After Israel's attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Tehran had to react, but did not want to give Israel a reason to retaliate massively.
It is unclear what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's response will be. While the USA and European leaders are asking Israel to show restraint, according to a report in the
Tagesschau
on Wednesday (April 17), there is speculation that Israel could strike back in the high-tech sector: with cyber attacks on infrastructure such as nuclear facilities.
Expert: “Iran took a higher risk than usual by attacking Israel”
Israel has done this several times in recent years, writes the
Tagesspiegel
. The Israelis sent computer viruses into secret Iranian networks and deliberately killed nuclear scientists. In 2018, Israeli agents even stole explosive documents on the nuclear program from a secret archive. Intelligence agents and fighter jets have often proven that they can overcome Iranian defense lines almost at will. If Israel were to succeed in making Iran look weak again, Khamenei would have gambled away - after 35 years at the head of the state.
Political scientist Zamirirad told the paper that the revolutionary leader was in danger of overestimating himself after surviving mass protests and harsh sanctions. “By attacking Israel, Iran has taken a significantly higher risk than usual, which means the Islamic Republic has a lot to lose,” the Tagesspiegel quoted the expert as saying. “In terms of foreign policy, Iran was actually on the rise. Now you’re closer to the cliff than ever before.”
If Khamenei's time as revolutionary leader ends, he will leave behind a “repressive state without popular support” with massive ecological and economic problems. And a country that is on the brink of a war that could affect the entire region.
(flon)